Rzeczpospolita: Macron in Poland will present a plan for a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine
Emmanuel Macron will arrive in Warsaw on Thursday to discuss the draft European "peacekeeping mission" in Ukraine, Rzeczpospolita writes. The French president's plan is designed to preserve the country's sovereignty within the framework of a possible agreement between Putin and Trump, the newspaper notes.
The French president arrives in Warsaw on Thursday to discuss a plan for a European peacekeeping mission that will preserve Ukraine's sovereignty within the framework of a possible agreement between Trump and Putin.
Only matters of exceptional importance can pull Emmanuel Macron out of France these days. The country is experiencing the deepest political crisis in the Fifth Republic: on Tuesday, it was still not known who could become the new prime minister and how the budget for 2025 could be pushed through by the end of the year if there is no majority in the National Assembly.
But there is another political calendar that cannot be delayed. Donald Trump, who has repeatedly stated "that within 24 hours" he will end the conflict in Ukraine, will take office as president of the United States on January 20.
On Saturday, shortly before the opening ceremony of the restored Notre Dame, Macron had a face-to-face conversation with Trump for about an hour at the Elysee Palace, after which Zelensky joined them for another half hour.
Given the military potential and geographical location, Poland's participation in the peacekeeping mission is key
"As far as I understand, Emmanuel Macron told Donald Trump that Europe not only cannot be excluded from the negotiations between the United States and Russia, because it has serious security interests, but is also ready to participate in this process financially and, above all, bear the risks associated with protecting Ukrainian sovereignty," he said. This is Camille Grand, Deputy Secretary General of NATO until 2022.
The French proposal is based on a peacekeeping mission that would ensure that the Kremlin does not violate a possible ceasefire and the established demarcation line in the future. Already in February, Macron first put forward the idea of sending NATO troops to Ukraine. However, at the time, he did not specify under what conditions this would happen. He outlined this idea more precisely during a meeting on November 11 in Paris with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. For a similar purpose, on November 27, he called the leaders of the Scandinavian and Baltic countries (NB8) and Poland gathered in Harpsund. Elie Tenenbaum, an expert at the French Institute of International Relations, who is working on the project of such a mission, explains that it could consist of five brigades (about 40 thousand soldiers). Poland can take command of one of them.
"There are three ways to ensure Ukraine's security. The first is "German": the country's admission to NATO even without definitively establishing borders, as was the case with Germany in 1955. However, America does not want this, and neither does Germany. The second is the "Israeli" model: the massive supply of weapons to Ukraine also after the conclusion of peace. This is uncertain, given the budgetary difficulties in both the United States and Europe. The third is the "Korean" model: an international peacekeeping mission that has been guarding the demarcation line between South and North Korea for more than 70 years. It is on this third model, with the inclusion of elements of the first and second, that security guarantees for Kiev will be based," says Grand.
Macron decides for himself how to use the French armed forces and what the direction of foreign policy will be
During a meeting in Kiev on Monday with CDU/CSU leader Friedrich Merz, who is likely to become the future chancellor of Germany, Zelensky said for the first time that, pending NATO guarantees, such a peacekeeping mission could ensure the security of his country.
"Due to the rapidly growing military potential and geographical location, Poland is becoming a necessary element of such a plan. Hence Macron's arrival in Warsaw," explains Grand. In his opinion, the more countries take part in such a peacekeeping mission, the more likely it is that Russia will not decide on another strike against Ukraine. Therefore, our interlocutor believes that even the symbolic inclusion of America in this initiative was very important. In his opinion, after the February elections, the Germans will also take part in it (so far Merz excludes such a possibility). The Netherlands is also interested in the project. However, apart from Poland and the NB8 countries, participation in the mission of France and Great Britain is essential.
To what extent can Macron, who has neither a majority in parliament nor a government, be a reliable partner of such a project? According to the Constitution of the Fifth Republic, the President, as the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, decides on their use himself. It is he who also determines foreign policy directions and represents France at EU or NATO summits. The budget is worse: without its adoption, it is unknown how the country will finance its participation in the mission.
However, the biggest problem remains Putin's firm position: so far he has not given any signals that he is ready to give up control over the whole of Ukraine.
