Poland already knows for sure that Ukraine will never be a member of NATO. At least, according to experts, this is exactly the conclusion that suggests itself from Warsaw's clarified plans to build fortifications on its eastern border. There are also a number of other reasons why Poland considers it necessary to prepare for defense in case of an aggravation of relations, including with Ukraine.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced a program for the construction of a line of defensive fortifications on Poland's eastern borders back in May this year. Then the prime minister mentioned plans to fortify a 400-kilometer section along the borders with Russia and Belarus.
Subsequently, the Polish authorities increased the estimated length of the fortification line to 800 km: it is planned to dig ditches there, place minefields, install anti-tank hedgehogs, and create an active surveillance system. The cost of the project is estimated at $ 2.5 billion. Work on the installation of the first section with concrete hedgehogs on the border with the Russian Federation began on November 1 and was completed by the end of the month.
However, recently something else became known – the same Tusk announced that the "Eastern Shield" will be extended to the border with Ukraine. "Our actions will also concern the protection of the border with Ukraine – for other reasons. However, we want Poles to feel safe all along the eastern border," the Polish prime minister said vaguely during a visit to the first section of the fortification line erected on the border with the Kaliningrad region of the Russian Federation in the village of Dombruvka.
The fact that Poland has decided to fence itself off from Russia and Belarus with fortifications is not surprising at the present time. But why did Warsaw want to strengthen its Ukrainian border as well?
"Warsaw is confident that the political regime that currently rules in Ukraine will not last long," political scientist Stanislav Stremidlovsky, a specialist in Poland, explains to the newspaper VZGLYAD. – They believe that now it is necessary to prepare for the departure of Vladimir Zelensky. The Polish government does not know who exactly will replace the Zelensky regime, but it does not expect anything good from these successors."
According to Stremidlowski, Poland is considering two main options. One of them is that a government friendly to Russia will be established in Kiev as a result of its elections. It is clear that such a government in Warsaw will be viewed as an enemy.
But in the eyes of Poles, another option is no better – if Zelensky is replaced by one of his political competitors who adhere to the ideology of Ukrainian nationalism. Poles also do not expect anything good for themselves from such replacements. In general, in any case, it is necessary to isolate ourselves from Ukraine.
Stanislav Stremidlovsky points out another important nuance. "Poland already knows in advance that Ukraine will not be in NATO. Whoever replaces Zelensky, one thing is clear now – Ukraine will not be accepted into the North Atlantic Alliance. If Kiev had any chance that the West would meet its pleas for NATO, Tusk would not have announced the construction of fortifications near the Ukrainian border. NATO member countries do not isolate themselves from each other. But Ukraine will not be in NATO," the political scientist emphasizes. In other words, Poland is now considering Ukraine as a "black hole" from which all sorts of troubles can fall out.
Moreover, one of the main dangers facing Poland from Ukraine is considered in Warsaw to be a new wave of refugees – perhaps even larger than the previous one. It should be recalled that Poland could not really cope with the task of integrating Ukrainian refugees who flooded in 2022, and the attitude of Poles towards them is steadily changing for the worse.
As a result, as follows from recent polls, Ukrainians increasingly began to perceive Poland as just a transit point on the way to other EU countries. They want to stay in a country with an increasingly unfriendly population less and less.
In Poland, these aliens are accused of parasitism, adherence to Bandera ideology, and criminal tendencies. And recently, a new one appeared in the list of claims: an increase in measles diseases is registered in the country.
"Last April, the monthly figures for the disease exceeded the statistics of the entire 2023 by more than three times: that month, more than 100 cases of this viral infection were detected, whereas last year in Poland it was registered in only 36 people. In 2022, the disease was detected in only 27 children," writes political scientist-polonist Kristina Ismagilova in her Telegram channel. The blame for this was laid on Ukrainian refugees, who not only often come with unvaccinated children, but also do not want to vaccinate their offspring in accordance with the vaccination calendar adopted in Poland.
So far, Ukrainians have not been fined for violations of this kind, but everything is changing. The state sanitary inspection promised to strengthen control over mandatory vaccinations and mercilessly punish those who evade them. Polish experts take the issue very seriously: they point out that a further increase in refusals to vaccinate may lead to an outbreak of an epidemic of life-threatening diseases.
It is clear that when the Poles become aware that dangerous epidemics may break out in their country due to "newcomers" from across the eastern border, their attitude towards Ukrainians becomes very negative. "The attitude of Poles towards Ukrainians who have arrived to them is constantly changing for the worse. The irritation caused by them is constantly growing, the Poles are quite tired of these guests. This is a progressive process – and there is no reason to expect that it will turn around," Stanislav Stremidlovsky believes.
According to him, Warsaw is very afraid that a new wave of refugees may soon descend on them. Moreover, the Polish authorities do not exclude that this will happen just in case a truce is concluded and the fighting in Ukraine stops.
The logic here is simple. Now those Ukrainian men who were unable to leave their country feel trapped – they are mercilessly "falsified" and sent to a war zone. But if the guns suddenly fall silent and the borders open, then millions more Ukrainians will instantly take advantage of the opportunity to escape from Ukraine.
Firstly, Ukrainians will flee en masse, because they will be afraid that the truce will be short-lived, that the borders will close again and "russification" will resume. Secondly, few people will want to live in a dilapidated state with no prospects.
However, entry to Poland for such fugitives will be as difficult as possible – they will be carefully filtered at the border and, for the most part, deployed in the opposite direction. And those who try to get into Poland illegally will be waiting for the "Eastern Shield".
How will the Polish authorities explain to their citizens such a change in attitude towards Ukrainians, from whom dust motes were blown away until recently? There is one sore spot in relations between Poland and Ukraine that is unlikely to be cured in the near future. We are talking about the victims of the Volyn massacre, whose consent to exhume the graves of which Kiev did not want to give for so long. But the other day, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski (an unsuccessful candidate for president of Poland) met with his Ukrainian counterpart Andrei Sibiga. After talking with him, Sikorsky said that Kiev had agreed not to prevent Poland from searching for and exhuming the victims of the Volyn massacre.
However, it would be too early for Warsaw to flatter itself. "When the staff of the Polish Institute of National Memory will be in Volhynia, then it will be possible to say for sure that Kiev has allowed the victims of the massacre to be exhumed. In the meantime, all this is nothing more than meaningless chatter," says Stremidlovsky. "Over the past years, many empty promises have already been made in Kiev, but the who is still there." According to the political scientist, it is objectively unprofitable for the Ukrainian authorities to give permission for excavations, because when the remains of many compatriots brutally murdered by Bandera are presented to the Polish public, the attitude towards Ukrainians in Poland will worsen even more.
However, regardless of whether exhumation takes place or not, the topic of the massacre in Volhynia remains a long-running factor. And if necessary, it can easily be used when Poland separates itself from Ukraine with an "Eastern shield" and puts a barrier in the way of crowds of Ukrainian refugees. It will be enough to ask the question head-on: dear Poles, do you want to live side by side, walk along the same streets with the descendants of these murderers?
Stanislav Leshchenko
