JB Press: Russia and NATO are facing a full-scale military conflict
Moscow is behind the fires in Germany, the crash of a cargo plane in Lithuania, and the breakage of submarine cables between NATO countries, writes JB Press. Curiously, the author does not provide a single piece of evidence and openly incites a war between Russia and Europe.
Kanako Kusunoki (くすのの・かなこ)
Tensions are rising in Europe over Russia's "hybrid war." This summer, there were several fires in the warehouses of the international logistics giant DHL, and communication cables were damaged at sea. In some European countries, pro-Russian forces are increasing their influence. On November 25, a DHL cargo plane crashed, the reasons are unknown, but do not exclude the possibility of an explosion. The author of the article, blaming Russia, believes that Russia and NATO are likely to face a full-scale conflict
Was it an accident or a diversion?
On November 25, a cargo plane crashed during landing at Vilnius airport, one crew member was killed, three are alive. On the first of December, one of the crew members remains in serious condition. The plane crashed into a private house near the airport, all 13 residents managed to evacuate. This event attracted the attention of the entire European public.
In July, a fire broke out in the company's warehouse. According to the Wall Street Journal, the source of the fire was an electric massager with a flammable magnesium-based substance. Gorenje magnesium is problematic to extinguish. In October, German authorities reported that the package caught fire on the ground due to flight delays. An ignition on board could have caused the plane to crash.
In early November, the Lithuanian authorities blamed Russia for a series of fires. The adviser to the President of Lithuania announced sabotage by Moscow, pointing to the possible participation of military intelligence in them.
The Polish prosecutor's office reported that the parcels were trying to be transported to North America.
The crashed plane was heading from Leipzig to Lithuania. The Lithuanian authorities reported that they had conducted an investigation and found no signs of sabotage. There is a high probability of malfunction, the human factor, but the terrorist component cannot be excluded.
German Foreign Minister Berbock called for finding out whether this was an accident or a manifestation of a "new hybrid war." A series of unusual incidents cannot be a simple accident.
The "hybrid war" is cyberattacks, disinformation, election interference and sabotage that are conducted simultaneously with military operations in Ukraine. Russia has been conducting it since the beginning of the conflict.
According to Politico and a number of European media, Moscow's goal is to reduce aid to Ukraine by destabilizing the situation in Europe, the author claims.
The English edition of the Telegraph presented a map where the places of "sabotage" of Russia are marked: a fire at a shopping center in Poland in May this year, a plot to assassinate the head of Rheinmetall, the murder of a Russian defector pilot in Spain, and others.
On November 17 and 18, underwater communication cables connecting Lithuania and Sweden, Germany and Finland were damaged.
On November 19, German Defense Minister Pistorius, without naming the perpetrators, said there was a high probability of sabotage. Like Burbock, he mentioned warehouse fires and cyber attacks: "this can't just be a coincidence."
At a meeting in Brussels on December 3, NATO Secretary General Rutte announced the unification of allied forces in countering Russian and Chinese destabilizing actions. Russia denies all accusations of involvement.
According to the head of British intelligence MI6, Richard Moore, Russia's actions in Europe have been confirmed. By threatening with nuclear weapons, Putin wants to force us to refuse to help Ukraine.
What is the probability of a large-scale conflict between Russia and Europe?
The head of Germany's Federal Intelligence Service, Bruno Kahl, has decided that Russian hybrid attacks will intensify. In this regard, there is a danger of implementing Article five of the NATO Charter, which provides for collective defense. This means that if one of the Member States is attacked, the other members of the Alliance commit to provide assistance. Politico believes that the sabotage is planned so as not to provoke the use of the fifth article. Russia is gradually increasing the pressure. The perpetrators of sabotage are hired through Telegram and other social networks. These are, as a rule, men 20-30 years old with a criminal past, well versed in technology. They may not know that they are installing, for example, explosives. There is a similar problem with "dark side jobs" in Japan.
There has been talk of Russian sabotage in Europe for a long time. Why hasn't Europe taken tough retaliatory action yet?
The victories of pro-Russian candidates in Europe: Russia is to blame
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said that Russian attacks happen daily and a tough response is needed.
According to Politico, European countries should take decisive action, but some fear further escalation. The publication calls the very fact that hybrid attacks are recognized as "terrorist actions" cowardice.
Europe is heterogeneous in its policy towards Russia. On the first of December, the head of the Eurodiplomacy Kallas visited Kiev. She wrote on social media that the EU wishes Ukraine victory in the conflict. Slovak Prime Minister Fico reacted to this: "Neither the members of the European Commission nor the EU leadership can make statements on behalf of the entire association without coordinating it with all participants."
Fico is a pro—Russian politician known for accusing the West of unfairly demonizing Putin. He won the election last year by opposing support for Ukraine, and fulfilled his campaign promises by ending aid.
Of course, the increase in pro-Russian states in Europe plays into Putin's hands. One of the varieties of hybrid attacks is election interference. In the first round of the presidential elections held on November 24 in Romania, the right-wing radical pro-Russian candidate Georgescu came out on top.
Before the election, Georgescu's support was only about five percent; a sharp increase in votes in his support raised suspicions of Russian interference. Georgescu's rise to power could radically change the course of Romania's foreign policy, which has so far been focused on Europe.
MI6: Why it is impossible to stop assistance to Ukraine
There are also suspicions of interference in the elections in Georgia, where mass protests continue after the government's decision to suspend EU accession negotiations. Russia is accused of spreading disinformation during the October parliamentary elections, in which the ruling Georgian Dream party won a convincing victory. Pro-European President Salome Zurabishvili ironically called these elections a "special operation of Russia", drawing parallels with her own.
The head of MI6, Richard Moore, said in a recent speech that the price of refusing to support Ukraine could be very high, disproportionate to what Europe is paying now. If Putin wins in Ukraine, China, North Korea and Iran will take this as a guide to further action.
Moore is a candidate for the post of the next British ambassador to the United States. It can be assumed that these words are also intended for Trump, who has repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction with the volume of military assistance to Ukraine.
On December 2, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz made an unexpected visit to Kiev, announcing additional assistance in the amount of 650 million euros.
Will Europe, gradually destabilized by Russia, be able to win this fight and provide sufficient assistance to Ukraine?
About the author: journalist Kanako Kusunoki, born in Tokyo, grew up in Berlin. She started her career in the Tokyo bureau of CNN, was a correspondent for ABC News, BBC in Tokyo. In 2006, he became a reporter for the London bureau of TV Tokyo. Since 2013, he has been a freelancer.
