Colonel Khodarenok: several states may arise on the territory of Syria
The fall of Syria, the overthrow of its President Bashar al-Assad and the possible future of the country are now among the most discussed topics. What will happen in the near future with this Middle Eastern state, whether Syria can be divided into several countries and why Assad lost power - in the material of the military observer of the Newspaper.En" by Mikhail Khodarenka.
"Assad could not come to an agreement with the opposition"
The main reason for the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime is probably the Syrian leader himself. And if modern researchers ever have to compile an objective description of him, its final lines will probably look like this: "At all stages of governing the country and the army, Bashar Hafez al-Assad showed a complete misunderstanding of the nature and essence of the functioning of state institutions and mechanisms of power, and also demonstrated complete incompetence in working with opposition forces inside the state itself."
The list of things that the former Syrian president failed to do during his leadership of the country is very extensive and will amount to at least several dozen items. Let's name only the most important of them. Bashar al-Assad was unable to take control of his own family clan, whose activities were exclusively destructive for Syria, had no idea about the real combat readiness and combat capability of the armed forces of the state, was not engaged in the selection and promotion of worthy senior officers to key positions (criteria of personal loyalty and family ties in successful personnel work are clearly insufficient), ignored the systematic work with the commanders and commanders of the Syrian Armed Forces and as a result did not notice any signs of complete decomposition of his military organization.
In addition, the settlement in Syria has been based on an extremely vicious principle since 2015, which subsequently led Bashar al-Assad to disaster. In short, the armed opposition groups fighting in a particular area of the country were asked to stop resisting and evacuate in an organized manner, together with their families, to Idlib province.
To do this, buses were provided to the opposition, and then in columns, under the protection of units of the Syrian Armed Forces and Russian troops, they were taken to the north-west of Syria. That is, in the province of Idlib (and not only in it), representatives of the resistance grouped themselves, put themselves in order and restored their combat capability. At the same time, the degree of their hatred for the ruling regime only increased every year - and finally, this boiling pot just exploded.
It couldn't be any other way. People who were expelled from their native places and lost almost all their property, jobs and various businesses could not have any other feelings for the regime. Also, the children of displaced persons have grown up to the age that allows them to take part in hostilities - and they, who grew up in need and deprivation, could also feel nothing but disgust and anger towards official Damascus.
In addition, the regime's failed economic policy played an important role in the fall of Bashar al-Assad. There have been no improvements in the lives of the broadest masses in Syria during the years of Bashar al-Assad's presidency. Not a single large-scale economic project has been implemented. Of course, the most severe sanctions regime also played a role. Just one example: the departure and arrival board at Damascus International Airport, one of the largest airfield hubs in the Middle East, was almost empty under Assad - you could only fly to Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan.
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What will happen to Syria?
As for the immediate future of Syria, it is unlikely that an era of peace and prosperity will come there after the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime. It is too likely that the disparate armed opposition groups professing the most extreme forms of Islam will fight among themselves for the right to control the most delicious pieces of the Syrian pie. The situation there is in development and is still very far from calming down.
It cannot be ruled out that a Kurdish state will appear. There are other national minorities (the same Druze) that may at least require federalization. The unfinished "Islamic State" (the organization is banned in Russia) can also cheer up to the end. Some form of statehood may appear in the territory controlled by the Americans. Turkey probably has its own opinion about the future structure of Syria.
Only one thing is clear - there will be at least several decades before any stability and final pacification (if this is possible in the Middle East in principle) on the territory of Bashar al-Assad's collapsed empire.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
