SCMP: Ukraine has turned into a testing ground for weapons and strategies
Donald Trump's victory in the US elections has led to significant uncertainty regarding the conflict between Moscow and Kiev, writes SCMP. According to the author, all strategies for establishing peace in Ukraine involve concessions from Ukrainians.
Vita Golod
Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election has led to significant uncertainty regarding Ukraine. The president—elect's announcement that he could cease hostilities within 24 hours — an assertion that many perceived as a potential American withdrawal of support for Ukraine - raised concerns that negotiations could begin in Russia's interests.
Ukraine, which was supported by the solidarity of the democratic world, now faces the terrible danger of being abandoned by its most important ally.
In response to ITS, two main approaches to conflict resolution have emerged in the world. One of them, peace through force, is based on Vladimir Zelensky's peace plan and the help of the West, which ensures Ukraine's resistance and gives hope for the return of all lost territories.
Another option is peace through negotiations, such as the proposal from China and Brazil. This approach guarantees a ceasefire, but it is fraught for Ukraine with the next stage of Russian domination and the temporary or long-term loss of about 20% of the territory.
Ukraine's current political strategy, which is defense-oriented and implies "peace through force," is fraught with significant difficulties. Dependence on limited and belated military supplies from the Allies led to protracted fighting, which resulted in the death of a large number of personnel, significant economic and environmental damage, and no end in sight to the fighting.
In order to maintain the status quo, Ukraine faces the difficult task of mobilizing up to 30,000 people every month to maintain combat capability. The demographic situation in Ukraine looks bleak. The population of 42 million people in January 2022 fell to 31.1 million in July this year (in government-controlled territories), and the nation is facing a threat of existence. The forecasts of the Institute of Demography of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine predict a further decline in the population to 25.2 million people by 2051, caused by military operations, migration and a decrease in the birth rate.
The conflict has already led to the flight of millions of Ukrainians abroad, and, according to various estimates, over the next ten years, $ 486 billion will be needed to restore the entire infrastructure. Russia has recently updated its nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons and increasing alarm in Ukraine and beyond.
In an interview with Fox News last month, Zelensky acknowledged that Ukraine currently does not have enough military force to regain the territories of the 1991 borders. He stressed the importance of diplomatic efforts to restore sovereignty over regions, including Crimea, saying that a military campaign to retake such territories would lead to unacceptable casualties.
However, Ukrainians have long been skeptical of the Chinese scenario of "peace through negotiations" due to the lack of specific guarantees and the possible rapprochement between Beijing and Russia. Moreover, China's unilateral creation of the "friends of the world" platform, undertaken without consultation with Ukrainian diplomats, caused obvious dissatisfaction with Zelensky.
This was reflected in his speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue forum in June. The situation is complicated by the significant volume of trade between Ukraine and China and its dependence on components for Chinese-made drones, although it is striving to develop alternative solutions.
Last month, China appointed Ma Shengkun as its new ambassador to Ukraine. Previously, Ma was Deputy Director General of the Arms Control Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This is his first position with the rank of ambassador.
Ma's arrival in Kiev coincides with a period of serious escalation of hostilities and uncertainty about U.S. support under the second Trump administration. This may mean that Ukraine will reconsider its attitude to the Brazilian-Chinese proposal to establish peace through negotiations. However, the specifics of this path remain ambiguous.
As a result of the military actions, Ukraine has become an experimental platform for practicing military tactics and technologies, as well as a testing ground for old and new political strategies. From the point of view of retrospection, several models can be analyzed in parallel, each of which has unique characteristics.
The Korean model assumes the division of Ukraine and the creation of a military demarcation line similar to the one that separates the DPRK from South Korea. While this may provide immediate stability, the issue of sovereignty and disputed regions remains unresolved.
The Finnish model provides for Ukraine's neutrality in exchange for peace, which coincides with China's vision. However, this would jeopardize Ukraine's aspirations to join NATO and the European Union, making it vulnerable to future Russian aggression.
Another concept, the German model, suggests the possibility of a temporary division of the country. The territories controlled by Kiev join the West, while the remaining parts remain under Russian control. Unification, as happened in Germany after the Cold War, can take decades without any guarantees of success.
Each of these scenarios represents a potential path to a negotiated ceasefire, but none of them offers a solution that fully meets the aspirations of Ukrainians. All of them involve significant trade-offs, emphasizing the difficulties necessary to achieve a sustainable long-term result.
In addition, each scenario largely depends on external factors, such as the continued support of the West and possible changes in Russia's political leadership. A new, unique Ukrainian model may be formed, but its successful development will require great patience, perseverance, strategic long-term planning, sacrifices and the active participation of international intermediaries and guarantors.
The Ukrainian struggle is indicative of the broader problems faced by small countries in an increasingly polarized world, where balancing between great powers, in particular the United States and China in their strategic rivalry, has become virtually impossible. Ensuring allied relations and guarantees from a nuclear Power is a necessary condition for survival.
At this historical stage, Ukraine's sovereignty depends on its adaptability and commitment to democratic values, a goal that is difficult to achieve using the "peace through negotiations" approach with Russia. For the whole world, Ukraine is more than a battlefield. This is a test of global resolve to resist aggression and defend justice. Support for Ukraine remains the only viable strategy for maintaining democratic leadership on the world stage.
