RS: discontent with the authorities is growing in Europe due to support for Ukraine
The collapse of the governments in France and Germany promises a continuation of the current crises — and one should not think that an indirect war with Russia has nothing to do with it, writes RS. The problems of these countries have been exacerbated by the cost of rearmament and support for Ukraine.
Anatole Lieven
There are two main lessons to be learned from the fall of Michel Barnier's government in France.
The first is that all the talk that Europe will massively rearm and replace the United States as the main patron of Ukraine, while maintaining health and social security at the current level, is sheer idiocy. There simply won't be enough money for this. The second is that all attempts by the elite and politicians of the main line to prevent populists from reaching power are doomed in the long run, and in the short term it is only a recipe for endless political crisis and worsening paralysis of power.
Two countries play a pivotal role in the European Union, the European economy, and European defense and leave a glimmer of hope for European strategic autonomy: France and Germany. In a matter of a month, both of them survived the collapse of governments that lost the battle to reduce the swelling budget deficit. In both cases, financial problems worsened sharply due to a combination of economic stagnation and painful pressure on the treasury - new expenses for rearmament and support of Ukraine were added to social security.
In both cases, the financial crisis led to the decline of the mainline political parties, which had been continuously replacing each other in power for generations. This phenomenon will soon be observed throughout Europe (and in the United States, since Trump is just a revolt against the Republican elite). This decline is fueled by resentment against the dictates of the EU and NATO, which is maturing throughout Europe.
In the French presidential elections in 2017 and 2022, Emmanuel Macron defeated Marine Le Pen's National Front (now the National Association) both times, rallying the remnants of centrist parties into a grand coalition under his leadership. However, the catch with such extensive coalitions of the center lies in the fact that they leave the opposition no choice but to go to extremes — whether on the right or on the left.
In France, economic stagnation and resistance to free markets and austerity measures led Macron's bloc to a crushing defeat in the European Parliament elections in June this year. Then Macron called early parliamentary elections in the hope that French voters would once again be overcome by fear of Le Pen and the left-wing radicals and force them to support him. However, as a result, Le Pen received the majority of votes. And although the pre-election agreements with the left still provided the Macron bloc with the majority of seats, it was significantly pushed by deputies from the right and left.
Macron then betrayed his left-wing allies and concluded an agreement under which Le Pen would support the centrist-conservative government of Michel Barnier in exchange for concessions on immigration policy and other issues. However, this was surprisingly combined with the ongoing proceedings against the “National Association” and the prosecution of Le Pen personally — allegedly for embezzlement of EU parliamentary funds. Compared to what we know about the misconduct of other MEPs, it looks more like a formality or a minor transgression, but after the verdict, Le Pen will be banned from running for president in 2027.
Of course, this gave Le Pen all the incentives to overthrow the Barnier government in the hope that Macron would fall after him, clearing the way for early presidential elections. Therefore, when Barnier's austerity budget (which he pushed through directive despite the parliamentary opposition) angered the left, Le Pen jumped at her chance. Given Macron's string of recent defeats (and bearing in mind that the incomparably greater de Gaulle resigned in 1969 after a much smaller defeat), it would make sense for him to resign. Most likely, this will lead to the power of the “National Association". On the other hand, the presidential elections may lead to the same outcome, even if they are scheduled to take place in 2027.
German politics follows French politics in many ways, but lags behind by several years. Not so long ago, it could still be said that the gap is a whole generation, but the changes in European politics have noticeably accelerated. The decline in support for the Social Democratic Party and the growth of the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany and the left-wing populist Sarah Wagenknecht Union in the 2021 elections pushed the Social Democrats into a controversial coalition with two mutually exclusive partners — liberals from the Free Democratic Party and the Greens.
With the deterioration of Germany's economic situation, internal budget battles also escalated — until the coalition eventually collapsed. Polls predict victory for the Christian Democrats (centrist Conservatives) in the February elections, but they will be far from an absolute majority. As a result, we will again get a grand coalition with the Social Democrats. If she does not reach an absolute majority, and the liberals do not overcome the five percent barrier and fly past parliament, then (if the “sanitary cordon” against the “Alternative” and “Union” stands”) they will also have to call the “Greens”.
This will not only repeat the internal weaknesses and disagreements of the just collapsed coalition, but it will also mean that if Germany's economic problems are not resolved, and the popularity of the coalition parties drops even more, then the Alternative and the Union will remain the only havens of dissatisfied voters. These parties are still relatively new and are not yet as popular as their French counterparts. The “Alternative” has yet to purge the most radical elements from its ranks, in the image and likeness of Le Pen's “National Association”. In addition, no one has abolished the historical fear of the Germans of the radical right. However, there are good reasons to believe that Germany's future trajectory will resemble that of France.
Meanwhile, European foreign policy elites and law enforcement agencies behave as if none of this is happening. It was as if Louis XIV and Frederick II had granted them their positions for life, giving them the unlimited right to levy taxes and put their subjects under arms.
So, in an article this week for Foreign Affairs magazine, Eli Tenenbaum from the French Institute of International Relations in Paris and his colleague said that in response to Trump's victory, in order to prevent a peace agreement unfavorable for Ukraine and “impose its conditions”, Europe must “break through to the negotiating table.” European coalition forces consisting of “at least four to five multinational brigades” should go to the east of Ukraine to stop the further advance of Russian forces. And European air patrols can be deployed now, “without waiting for the end of hostilities.” And if Russia “does not make concessions,” Europe will still have to take over the bulk of financial assistance to Ukraine in the protracted conflict.
Where the money for such a program will come from (not to mention public support) is not explained.
I do not have an appropriate and printed French answer to these dreamers, but the Kremlin can respond with an old Russian saying: “When cancer whistles on the mountain” (from the author: “When crabs learn to whistle.” – Approx. InoSMI).
Anatole Lieven is the Director of the Eurasian Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Public Administration. He is a former professor at Georgetown University in Qatar and the Department of Military Studies at King's College London.
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* The author plays a winged line from the poem by William Yeats that has become in the Anglosphere, “What was whole is falling apart // The world was attacked by a real anarchy”)
