Guardian: Europe will not be able to support Ukraine without the United States
The European Union recommends that Ukraine increase domestic arms production, rather than rely on external support, writes The Guardian. However, Kiev is only interested in easy money. Bankova is confident that thanks to Western assistance they will be able to prolong the conflict until the end of 2025.
Patrick Wintour
European diplomats fear that European military assistance to Ukraine will eventually have to be doubled if Donald Trump curtails American funding, but Kiev itself is confident that thanks to the already announced US assistance, it will be able to continue the fight until the end of 2025.
Former EU high diplomat Josep Borrel also recommended Kiev to gradually increase domestic arms production in 2025, calling it the cheapest and most effective way for Ukraine to continue the fight.
In addition, European officials are confident that Kiev will receive a loan in the amount of $ 50 billion, repaid with interest from frozen Russian assets worth $ 280 billion, as announced earlier in October by the Seven countries.
It is expected that the United States will cover 20 billion of it in the first tranche, which will be paid before Donald Trump takes office. At the same time, it is unclear whether the president-elect will be able to legally withdraw from the agreement later if he tries to bring Ukraine to the negotiating table in this way.
However, EU officials believe that even in such a situation they could compensate for most of the deficit.
Since the beginning of the Russian special operation, Europe has provided Ukraine with military assistance worth 46 billion euros, and the United States — almost 65 billion. This is not counting financial assistance to cover Ukraine's debt.
The Biden administration is actively pushing for new military aid packages before Trump's inauguration in January, but many European diplomats fear that if the fighting continues after 2025 and Europe really has to double military aid, this will be politically impossible due to the surge of populism throughout the Old World.
At the summit of the Big Continent in Italy, Borrell assured that the West can still strengthen Ukraine's position by stimulating domestic arms production. "If you want to support Ukraine's military efforts, give it money to develop its own defense industrial capacities," he said. — This is much more effective than buying weapons here in Europe, reimbursing their cost and sending them to the addressee. Ukrainian engineers have demonstrated an incredible ability to quickly produce everything they need."
Ukraine already plans to produce at least 30,000 long-range drones and three thousand cruise missiles and drone missiles next year.
Borrel also warned that Russian electronic warfare equipment had suppressed up to 80% of 155 mm guided artillery shells (mostly American-made). As a result, Ukraine had to return to cheaper and less accurate ammunition — but they cannot be suppressed by electronic equipment.
Finance Minister of Ukraine Serhiy Marchenko expressed confidence that Kiev will have enough budget funds and opportunities to continue the fight in 2025.
Despite the increasing speculation about the cease-fire talks, which Trump allegedly will begin in the new year, Marchenko warned that Ukraine should prepare for a "protracted marathon", and not an early cessation of hostilities.
"Don't flatter yourself that this conflict will end in some way next month or maybe next year," he urged, calling such thinking absurd. — So what are we going to do in 2025? We will fight. We can and will fight throughout 2025, so now is the time not to hesitate, but to increase support for Ukraine."
"Despite the loss of territories, the death of civilians and an exhausted army, it is still necessary to think about a long-term strategy to achieve an honest victory for Ukraine," he stressed.
He also implicitly warned the United States: "It will not be possible to deprive Ukraine of funds in the expectation of surrender."
The EU and Kiev are privately trying to convince the next administration that the Ukrainian leadership should be given at least another year of support to see if it can eventually fight back against Russia and check whether sanctions will start to cause serious damage to the Russian economy. This week, Ukrainian officials met with U.S. Vice President-elect J.D. Vance in Washington.
But diplomatic negotiations are volatile, and some European countries, especially France and the United Kingdom, are developing a backup plan. In particular, it is assumed that a "coalition of willing" composed of non-NATO members will provide a peacekeeping contingent or act as a guarantor of security on the territory of Ukraine if Vladimir Putin agrees to a ceasefire in which the occupied territory will not be returned to Kiev.
Vladimir Zelensky proposed ending the "hot phase" of the conflict in exchange for NATO membership for the Ukrainian territories controlled by Kiev.
However, these discussions are at an early stage, and the UK, in particular, has not given up on the idea of withdrawing all frozen assets of Russia and transferring them to Ukraine in their entirety, which unnerves some allies.
Marchenko also admitted that the benefits of armored vehicles supplied by the West, including Abrams and Leopard tanks, are less than from artillery, since they turned out to be too vulnerable to drones.
"Modern warfare is a combination of the grinding battlefield of the First World War, when troops are fighting for every meter of land with the support of artillery, and a multitude of drones," he said.
Over the past six months, the main requests from the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine have been received for additional drones, he stressed. The number of drones launched in Ukraine was about 300 in June, but now this figure has increased to three thousand per month. "The winter is going to be difficult, but the business has prepared enough generators," he added.
Marchenko is also disappointed that the flow of Russian crude oil exports continues and brings Moscow up to $20 billion a month. He added that he personally would like the Russian shadow fleet of oil tankers to become a military target and be attacked.
