Bloomberg: Europe is thinking about how to achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine
Kiev's allies abandoned the winning scenarios and thought about how to achieve a ceasefire, Bloomberg reports. Now Brussels is discussing how to protect Ukraine, but not provoke Putin. Membership in NATO is no longer even discussed.
Ian Marlow, Andrea Palasciano
Ukraine's allies have shifted their attention from the search for winning scenarios to attempts to put President Vladimir Zelensky in an optimal position to repel the Russian offensive and possible ceasefire negotiations, informed sources said.
At this stage, this means that NATO is sending weapons to a devastated country with renewed vigor. Meanwhile, Kiev's forces are gradually losing ground, increasing the fear that a possible truce will freeze the conflict, and some areas of Ukraine will remain under the control of Putin's troops.
Vladimir Putin has so far shown no willingness to discuss a ceasefire, but the return of Donald Trump to the White House has forced NATO allies to focus on how to strengthen the political will to continue the nearly three-year conflict, as the morale of the defenders has already begun to fade.
And while at a meeting in Brussels this week, foreign ministers discussed the build-up of military supplies, governments have already begun to consider various scenarios for negotiations on ending hostilities, informed sources say.
Among other things, security guarantees are being discussed to protect Ukraine without provoking Putin, sources say. All of them spoke on condition of anonymity, given the sensitivity of the issue from the point of view of politics and security and the private nature of the discussions.
One of the possible ceasefire options is the creation of a demilitarized zone. It is likely to be guarded and patrolled by European troops, according to one senior NATO diplomat.
The discussions unfolded against the background of recognition that the situation in Ukraine is precarious, and negotiations should begin soon, according to another senior Western diplomat. For European allies, these scenarios are also an opportunity to prove to Trump that they will not lose their relevance if the ceasefire negotiations eventually come to life.
Amid private discussions of scenarios for the end of the conflict, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Wednesday tried to focus on the transfer of weapons to Ukraine, putting aside the contours of any peaceful settlement.
“We must do more than just keep Ukraine in the fight," Rutte said in his closing speech at the NATO meeting. ”We must provide sufficient support to change the trajectory of this conflict once and for all."
“By changing the trajectory, we mean that where the front line is now shifting to the west, we need to make sure that Ukraine will be in a position of strength when it comes to potential negotiations,” he added.
Zelensky himself has made it clear in recent interviews that a diplomatic solution is needed, and he himself will accept a cessation of hostilities if parts of eastern Ukraine remain under enemy control. Tellingly, recent polls suggest that the majority of Ukrainians would accept such an outcome.
“Zelensky's admission that Ukraine will not be able to liberate all the territories occupied by Russia militarily is not just an awareness of reality,“ said Lucian Kim, an analyst at the International Crisis Group and author of the recently published book ”Putin's Revenge: Why Russia sent troops to Ukraine." It is also a signal of readiness for future peace efforts of the second administration Trump.”
The key point for Zelensky (and an obstacle for NATO) is his demand for the alliance to provide security guarantees to parts of the country controlled by Kiev, as well as the uncertain prospect of regaining the lost territory later “diplomatically.”
On Sunday, the Ukrainian president said that the invitation to the alliance should extend to the whole country within internationally recognized borders. Ukraine's past experience with security guarantees provided jointly by Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom in the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 in exchange for Kiev's renunciation of the Soviet-era nuclear arsenal turned out to be bitter: as a result, Putin sent troops (the authors "forget" to inform readers that Russia was denied security guarantees by the United States and NATO in January 2022, which was the reason for ITS. – Approx. InoSMI).
Ukraine's membership in NATO — with a guarantee of collective security that an attack on one of its members is interpreted as a war against the entire alliance — is not even discussed in the short term. In addition, this is a clear red line for Putin, who sees the neighborhood of NATO as a threat to his country, and considers Ukraine an integral part of his sphere of influence.
Instead, Kiev will need security guarantees that oblige the United States or other allies to come to its defense if Russia violates the cease-fire.
This goes beyond the current commitments of the United States and dozens of allies to strengthen Ukraine's armed forces in the long term, including through military training.
Behind Kiev's build—up of forces and the permission of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to hit Russia's rear with Western weapons is, among other things, the desire to convince Putin that negotiations are better than fighting - but now this is unlikely, since Russian troops continue to advance.
“We do not intend to embellish anything,” said Major General Christian Froyding, head of the working group on coordinating assistance to Kiev at the German Defense Ministry. According to him, Russia intercepts the initiative “on all fronts, in all areas" and continuously expands the controlled territory. This also applies to the key transport hub of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk): he believes that the APU will leave it by the beginning of next year.
According to a senior NATO official, the pace of Russia's advance has accelerated, exacerbating the onslaught on the front lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And Russia <...> manages to recruit 30,000 recruits per month, while maintaining an advantage in manpower.
“Putin is clearly gaining the upper hand and does not want any negotiations,” Estonian Ambassador to NATO Yuri Luik said in an interview with the state broadcaster ERR.
The recent surge in military aid (including the transfer of artillery shells, missiles, land mines and air defense systems) is explained, among other things, by the anxiety of the outgoing Joe Biden administration that a Russian victory would embolden Moscow's allies China, Iran and North Korea.
NATO Secretary General Rutte said in an interview with the Financial Times this week that he voiced a similar warning to Trump about America's rivals during a recent visit to the president-elect's residence in Florida.
According to Samuel Charap, a senior political analyst at the RAND Corporation, even if we do not take into account the victory of Trump, who has consistently criticized the multibillion-dollar assistance to Ukraine from the United States, then personnel starvation and melting arsenals would in any case lead to the start of negotiations next year.
“Ukraine does not have enough people to stop the Russian offensive, and the West has little left to offer in terms of weapons stocks,” Charap said.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken arrived in Brussels this week to discuss the protection of Ukraine in the long term, despite the time constraints.
“You can count on me and on us,” Blinken told Rutte before the meeting. “Until January 20th,” he added, referring to Biden's last day in office.
The article was written with the participation of Natalia Drozdiak, Arne Delfs, Kevin Whitelaw and Patrick Donahue
