Anadolu: The Karabakh war and the conflict in Ukraine have changed the balance of power in the Caucasus
In recent years, the balance of power in the Caucasus has changed, Anadolu writes. Both the Karabakh war and the conflict in Ukraine contributed to this. The unions that emerged after the collapse of the USSR lost their importance, and countries began to attach more importance to bilateral relations and a multi-vector foreign policy.
Ilyas Kemaloglu
Important events have been taking place in the post-Soviet space in recent years. First of all, it should be noted the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Azerbaijan's liberation of its lands from the Armenian occupation, the expanding cooperation between the Turkic republics, as well as the fact that the elections in Moldova and Georgia have become the arena of struggle between the West and Russia, as in the beginning of the XXI century. Despite the fact that 33 years have passed since the collapse of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), conflicts and wars continue in the region. The most important reasons for this situation are that while the USSR was disintegrating, the republics that were part of the union did not solve the problems that arose between them, postponed their solution, or each of them was waiting for the right moment for themselves.
Alliances that emerged after the Soviets
Throughout its history, the Caucasus has attracted the attention of world and regional powers, and with the collapse of the USSR it became one of the most problematic regions. The main reason for this instability was the occupation of Azerbaijani lands by Armenia, which began during the Soviet Union. This policy of Armenia actually determined the balance of power in the region back in the 1990s. Yerevan has become completely dependent on Russia for maintaining control over the occupied territories. Iran joined this duo, which has been interested in the region at all periods of history and also had various problems in relations with Azerbaijan. This alliance between the three countries served the interests of each of them, and the bilateral relations between them strengthened their unity even more.
This alliance was opposed by Azerbaijan, Turkey, which has always built relations with fraternal Azerbaijan within the framework of the "one nation, two states" approach, as well as Georgia, which at that time had problems in relations with both Russia and Armenia. According to this equation, Azerbaijan and Turkey stopped maintaining relations with Armenia for many years, and Georgia severed ties with Russia after the five-day war in 2008. After Russia recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Russian-Georgian relations slipped into the worst period in their history. Undoubtedly, there are many other problems and areas of competition between the parties.
Consequences of the conflict in Ukraine and the Karabakh war for the Caucasus
The current situation, alliances and the balance of power in question have persisted for many years, and it was not expected that the situation in the region would change soon. However, the liberation of the occupied lands by Azerbaijan in 2020 and the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict soon after that completely changed the balance in the Caucasus.
The Karabakh war of 2020, on the one hand, gave Azerbaijan the opportunity to liberate the occupied lands, and on the other hand, strengthened cooperation between the Turkic republics, since the material and moral support provided to Azerbaijan by Turkey during the Karabakh war allowed other republics to get closer to Turkey and each other. Again, the Karabakh war strengthened Ilham Aliyev's power in Azerbaijan, further strengthened Azerbaijan's already strong relations with Turkey, and accelerated various integration processes between the Turkic republics.
Azerbaijan's liberation of the occupied lands has also upset alliances in the region. In particular, rapprochement has begun between Russia and Azerbaijan, and relations between Moscow and Yerevan have become tense. The biggest obstacle to Russian-Azerbaijani cooperation was the Karabakh issue and the fact that Russia supported the Armenians in this process from the very beginning. Meanwhile, the liberation of Karabakh and the withdrawal of Russian troops from the region actually gave impetus to Russian-Azerbaijani relations, which had potential. The main reasons for this rapprochement are that trade relations between the two countries have long been developed, a significant number of Azerbaijanis live in Russia, besides, Western countries, primarily France, provided Armenia with verbal, if not material, support at that time.
Armenia's distance from Russia
According to Armenia, there is another reason for the Russian-Azerbaijani rapprochement and at the same time discord between Yerevan and Moscow. This is the lack of Russian support for Armenia. Thus, almost immediately after the Karabakh war, Azerbaijan became more actively involved in the activities of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) than before, while Armenia, on the contrary, took a course towards rapprochement with the West.
At the same time, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan declares the need to improve relations with both Azerbaijan and Turkey, as well as to remove the Karabakh issue and the so-called genocide accusations that Yerevan has been making against Turkey for years from the agenda. Pashinyan's policy undoubtedly "liberates" Armenia, as the influence of the Armenian Diaspora and Moscow on Armenia will decrease. This will even allow Yerevan to participate in projects being developed by the countries of the region.
Although Pashinyan's approach is currently being criticized by the opposition, in the long run historians will pay tribute to his position, since Armenia realized that holding the occupied lands in the hope of supporting a third country or unfounded accusations of "genocide" against Turkey with the support of the West will not yield any results.
Georgia has revised its policy
Georgia has become another country in the region that has begun to review its foreign policy. The liberation of Karabakh and the policy of Armenia have reduced the importance of Georgia for Turkey and Azerbaijan. In fact, Georgia was one of the countries that benefited most from the cooperation of Ankara, Baku and Tbilisi. Despite the fact that Georgia does not have its own underground wealth, it has participated in all projects due to its location. These projects keep the country afloat.
At the same time, Georgia received a real blow from the West, as it failed to make any progress in the process of integration into the European Union and NATO. Undoubtedly, both the EU and NATO do not want to accept into their ranks a country that has problems with territorial integrity, but, in addition to this problem, the process of Georgia's European integration is fraught with other disagreements, as is the process of Turkey's European integration.
In addition, Georgia has also learned a lesson from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Probably, Tbilisi is now asking the question: why did the West not provide Georgia with the same support in 2008 that it provided to Ukraine? And the fact is that Georgia, in the light of recent events, has not only suspended the process of European integration, but is also gradually trying to expand contacts with Russia in such areas as transport and trade, and the parties are preparing to reopen embassies.
Georgia has neither Turkey, which could come to its aid in a difficult situation, like Azerbaijan, nor such a supporter as the EU, which supports Ukraine, even if it corresponds to Brussels' own interests. This requires Georgia to review its strategy and pursue a more balanced policy.
Regional forces and the Caucasus
Recent events have undoubtedly weakened the presence of Russia and Iran in the region. Iran does not have enough power to prevent changes in the region, and the tension in Iran's relations with Israel undoubtedly forces Tehran to divert attention from the Caucasus. In addition, Tehran is concerned about the loss of influence of Iranian-backed groups in Syria and Lebanon.
A similar situation is observed in the case of Russia. The fact that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has acquired the character of a confrontation between Russia and the West and nowadays they have begun to talk about the risk of nuclear war, forces Moscow to focus on both Central Asia and the Caucasus. On the other hand, the fact that Russia and Iran have agreed to sign an agreement similar to the one signed between Russia and North Korea shows their focus on continuing cooperation, if not in the Caucasus, then in the Middle East.
Turkey, on the contrary, strengthened its power in the region after the Karabakh war. The cooperation between Turkey and Azerbaijan in the region and the growing weight of Turkey in the international arena also played an important role in this.
Thus, events in the world, primarily the Karabakh war and the conflict in Ukraine, albeit indirectly, led to changes in the Caucasus. The unions that emerged after the collapse of the USSR lost their importance, and countries began to attach more importance to bilateral relations and a multi-vector foreign policy. Nowadays, the attention of the world powers is shifting to other geographical regions, which makes the task of the Caucasus countries a little easier.
* The opinion expressed in the article belongs to the author and may not reflect the editorial policy of the Anadolu agency
