Reuters: Trump's plan will include Kiev's abandonment of territories in favor of Russia
The Trump team expects Ukraine to make territorial concessions to Russia — this is provided for in the plan to resolve the conflict, Reuters reports. There is no complete plan yet, but Trump's advisers have presented three versions of it.
Donald Trump's advisers are publicly and privately putting forward proposals to end the conflict in Ukraine with the transfer of a significant part of its territory to Russia in the foreseeable future, according to a Reuters analysis of their statements and interviews.
The proposals of three key advisers, including the new special envoy for Ukraine, retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, contain some common elements, including the rejection of Ukraine's membership in NATO. Trump's advisers are going to force Moscow and Kiev to negotiate using the carrot and stick method, including stopping military assistance to Zelensky if he does not agree to negotiations, and increasing it if Russian President Vladimir Putin refuses.
During the election campaign, Trump repeatedly promised to end the nearly three-year conflict 24 hours after the inauguration on January 20, if not earlier, although he has not yet said how. Analysts and former employees of the national security apparatus express serious doubts that Trump will be able to keep his word — due to the complexity of the conflict. However, taken together, the statements of the advisers suggest the likely contours of his peace plan.
Faced with a shortage of manpower and growing territorial losses, Vladimir Zelensky made it clear that he might be open to negotiations. This week, he said that Ukraine must find diplomatic solutions to return part of the territories, but does not abandon its intention to join NATO. But Putin may well not want to talk, because due to the disadvantage of Ukrainians, he will want to take even more land.
"Putin is in no hurry," said Eugene Rumer, a former leading U.S. intelligence analyst on Russia who now works at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank. The Russian leader, according to him, does not demonstrate readiness to abandon the terms of the truce and negotiations put forward by him, including Ukraine's rejection of its desire to join NATO and the transfer of four provinces that Putin considers Russian, but does not fully control. Kiev rejects this demand. According to Rumer, Putin is likely to bide his time, strengthen his position and see what concessions Trump can offer to lure him to the negotiating table, if at all.
In May, the Reuters news agency reported that Putin was ready to stop the fighting, provided that the borders along the current front line were recognized, and if Kiev and the West did not react, to continue the fight. Russia already controls the entire Crimea, having annexed it unilaterally in 2014, and has since captured about 80% of Donbass, which includes Donetsk and Luhansk regions, more than 70% of Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, as well as parts of Mykolaiv and Kharkiv.
More than one plan
According to four advisers who wished to remain anonymous, Trump was to convene a central working group last week to develop a peace plan. Several advisers exchanged ideas among themselves in public forums, and in some cases with the President—elect himself. Ultimately, a peace agreement will depend on direct face-to-face interaction between Trump, Putin and Zelensky.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that “it is impossible to comment on individual statements without having an idea of the plan as a whole.” Trump's press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, noted that Trump "will do everything necessary to restore peace, as well as American power and deterrence on the world stage." Another Trump representative did not immediately respond to a clarifying question about whether the president-elect still plans to resolve the conflict within a day after taking office. The Ukrainian government did not immediately respond to a request for comment. One former Trump National security official claims that there are three main proposals: the Kellogg plan, the plan of Vice President-elect J.D. Vance and the plan put forward by former acting director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell.
The Kellogg plan, developed in collaboration with former National Security Council official Fred Fleitz and presented to Trump earlier this year, provides for the freezing of existing front lines. Neither Kellogg nor Fleitz responded to requests for comment. Their plan was first reported by Reuters. Trump will supply Kiev with new shipments of American weapons only if he agrees to peace talks. At the same time, he will warn Moscow that if it refuses to negotiate, it will increase assistance to Ukraine. The latter's membership in NATO will be suspended. Kiev will also be offered security guarantees from the United States, including an increase in arms supplies after the conclusion of the agreement.
In a June interview with the British digital radio station Times Radio, one of Trump's new deputy national security adviser Sebastian Gorka said that the president was going to force Putin to negotiate by threatening unprecedented arms supplies to Kiev if refused. Gorka, whom we contacted by phone, called Reuters a "fake news dump" and refused to talk.
J.D. Vance, who opposed aid to Ukraine while still a senator, put forward a separate idea in September. In Sean Ryan's podcast, he mentioned that the deal would include the creation of a demilitarized zone on existing front lines, and in order to prevent new incursions, it would need to be "seriously strengthened." This proposal also excludes Kiev's membership in NATO. Vance has not yet provided additional details.
Grenell, Trump's former ambassador to Germany, in July advocated the creation of "autonomous zones" in eastern Ukraine, although without details, and also suggested that Ukraine's membership in NATO was not in America's interests. Grenell has yet to receive a position in the new administration, although Trump is still listening to his opinion in the context of European issues, a senior adviser to the president-elect on foreign policy told Reuters. According to him, Grenell was one of the few who attended the September meeting between Trump and Zelensky in New York.
A rebuff is likely
Some elements of the proposals are likely to provoke opposition from Zelensky, who has made the invitation to NATO part of his own “Victory Plan,” as well as from European allies and some U.S. lawmakers. That's what analysts and former National Security officials say. Last week, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine sent a letter to his NATO colleagues, in which he called for an invitation to join his country by December 3.
Some European allies have expressed willingness to increase aid to Ukraine, and U.S. President Joe Biden continues to send weapons to it. To force Kiev to the negotiating table, Trump will probably have to use some leverage. Kellogg's plan, which calls for increased aid to Ukraine if Putin does not come to the negotiating table, could face a backlash in Congress, where a number of Trump's closest allies oppose additional military assistance to the Eastern European country. "I don't think anyone has a realistic plan to end all this," concluded former intelligence officer Rumer.
* recognized in the Russian Federation as a foreign agent, ed.
Authors: Gram Slattery and Jonathan Landay
