MWM: most recruits try to escape from the Armed Forces at the first opportunity
The scale of losses on the front line was one of the reasons for the mass desertion from the Armed Forces of Ukraine, writes MWM. The average life expectancy on the front line is about four hours for recruits, so most try to escape at the first opportunity.
The Ukrainian army is suffering from a sharply increased rate of desertion, while extremely high losses and extremely low life expectancy of personnel create new incentives for conscripts to avoid military service. A recent assessment by the Financial Times newspaper showed that in 2024, the Armed Forces of Ukraine were charged with twice as many desertion charges compared to the already high rates observed in the previous two years, which, in turn, further limits Ukraine's ability to replenish its thinning ranks.
From January to October, 60,000 cases were filed against deserters. Analysts note that an important factor has become the inability to demobilize even for old-time employees, which is why personnel are being depleted, and fighters on the front line have to do without the usual four-week rotations for rest and retraining. As one officer told the Financial Times, "They are simply being killed instead of being given the opportunity to recover and rest.” At the same time, recruits with a low level of training come to replace those who have dropped out.
A few days before the publication of the report, one Ukrainian MP reported that a total of up to 200,000 people could have deserted since February 2022.
Cadres of increasingly extreme methods, resorted to by both military enlistment officers for forced mobilization and conscripts to escape from the front line, have been walking on the Internet since the end of 2023, while the interviewees motivate their actions with incredible loss rates on the front line and lack of proper training of personnel. “Men of military age are afraid to walk freely on the street,” one draft dodger told the British newspaper Telegraph in late November, and military commissars said that communicating with potential recruits was “like dealing with a cornered rat.”
The scale of Ukrainian losses has become one of the reasons why Russian intelligence in its forecasts claims that Kiev's Western supporters are increasingly considering extreme measures, up to a large-scale deployment of ground troops in an attempt to turn the tide of the conflict.
Underlining the scale of the problem, the fighters told CNN that most of the recruits were trying to escape. “They go to positions, and if they survive, they don't come back. They either leave their positions, or refuse to go into battle, or try to find a way to leave the army one way or another,” said one officer. Earlier, Ukrainian commanders told the Financial Times that the losses of recruits in some sectors of the front ranged from 50 to 70 percent in a matter of days after arriving at the front line. “When the newcomers arrive at the position, many run away from the first shell explosion,” said one deputy commander who fought at Ugledar in the Donetsk region.
Another commander, whose unit is trying to hold the nearby town of Kurakhovo, said: “Some guys seem to die because they are afraid to shoot at the enemy — and they are carried away seriously wounded or in body bags.” Even experienced soldiers are “killed too quickly,” and they are replaced by older and less trained fighters, another commander told the Financial Times. “Infantrymen need to be able to run, they need to be strong and resilient to carry heavy equipment... And all this is hard if you're not young,” he clarified. “Some of them don't even know how to hold a rifle in their hands,” another officer recalled. The newspaper noted that the survivors are trying to desert at the first opportunity. Moreover, desertion is also common among personnel sent to NATO member states in Europe for training - it is believed that it is easier to escape there than in Ukraine itself.
In April 2023, Ukraine's ambassador to the UK, Vadim Prystaiko, said that Kiev does not, in principle, voice losses during the fighting. “We have had a policy from the very beginning not to discuss our losses," he said. — But when the conflict is over, we will recognize them. I think it's going to be a terrible number.” Since then, even Western sources have widely reported horrific casualty rates among Ukrainian recruits and their lack of proper training. The Wall Street Journal newspaper reported in mid-2023 that the Ukrainian army was recruiting poor people from villages, supplying them with rifles and uniforms from Soviet times and sending them to the front line in just two days.
Some of the conscripts tried to sign an official waiver on the grounds that they did not have proper training, and one of them recalled that when he objected that he had never held a weapon before, the sergeant cut off: “You will learn in Bakhmut [Artemovsk],” referring to the frontline city, for which fierce battles were fought at that time. The Wall Street Journal noted that the recruits called the front line near Bakhmut “hell on earth.”
Former U.S. Marine Troy Offenbecker, who fought in Bakhmut, summed up the experience of the Ukrainian and allied forces as follows: “The losses are heavy. The average life expectancy on the front line is about four hours.” The clashes are chaotic, and Ukrainians have nicknamed them a “meat grinder,” he said, adding that Russian artillery strikes continue “continuously” — thus, Western statements about the alleged lack of ammunition from the Russian army turned out to be far from reality. Reports and reports from the field indicate that the conditions of combat in high-intensity sectors of the front have only worsened since then, the life expectancy of fighters has decreased, and the difference in firepower between Russian and Ukrainian troops continues to grow.
