Scholz arrived in Kiev for the first time in two and a half years since the beginning of his
On December 2, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz arrived in Kiev for talks with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky. This is Scholz's first visit to Kiev in the last two and a half years. In turn, German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock visited China and called her visit the beginning of a peaceful settlement of the conflict in Ukraine. Whether the efforts of German politicians will lead to the end of hostilities is in the material of the military observer of the Newspaper.En" by Mikhail Khodarenka.
To begin with, have the military-political and operational-strategic attitudes of the collective West in the field of conducting military operations in Ukraine changed recently? We will immediately exclude from these assessments the opinions of retired politicians and ex-military leaders, as well as numerous expert assessments. As a rule, most of them do not broadcast the opinions of the current heads of state and government of the West.
We will rely only on the facts. For example, a radical change in military-political and operational-strategic attitudes could lead to the permission of US President Joe Biden to strike at Russian territory with ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles. Following Washington, France and Britain also lifted their restrictions on air-launched cruise missile strikes.
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| MGM-140 Atacms. |
| Source: Alina Dzhus/"Newspaper.Ru" |
It would seem that such measures could lead to a fundamental change in the course of the armed struggle. Of course, they could if the APU (or rather, American instructors) launched, for example, 1,500 missiles per day. In other words, Russia would have been hit by a hail of Western missiles in this case.
However, in fact, nothing like this is happening, and it seems that it will not happen in the near future. From a military point of view, the strikes that have been carried out since Biden's permission can be described as single missile launches that have not yet brought any significant destruction.
It seems that the attitude of the collective West "Ukraine should not lose, but Russia should not win" has not undergone significant changes. And the permission to strike at the Russian Federation is either a demonstration of the potential capabilities of the West, or one of the issues of the upcoming negotiations.
What does Zelensky want?
It seems that Vladimir Zelensky is also aware of this - missiles will not solve his problems. Recently, the point of view of the President of Ukraine on the conduct of military operations has changed a lot. If earlier he categorically insisted on returning to the borders of 1991, vehemently denied the slightest possibility of even a temporary loss of one square meter of his country's territory, then recently he has adjusted his position.
For example, in an interview with Sky News at the end of November, the Ukrainian leader said that the hot phase of hostilities could end if Ukraine joined NATO with Kiev-controlled territories, and an invitation to join the alliance extended to the lost regions.
At the same time, in December, Zelensky said that he was against the country being invited to NATO without territories lost during the fighting. He stressed that Kiev will never legally recognize the annexation of the four regions and Crimea to Russia and, "of course, all this will return." It is quite possible to regard these words of the President of Ukraine as a step towards a possible peaceful settlement.
"Coordination of positions"
Returning to German politicians and their visits to China and Ukraine, we note that German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock called the purpose of her visit to China the beginning of negotiations on the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine. Of course, the position of the German Foreign Minister on this issue is not decisive for Beijing. So, most likely, this visit is a possible coordination of positions.
It cannot be ruled out that the visit of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to Kiev is subordinated to the same goals.
If such plans really existed in Brussels, it is unlikely that Scholz would have been sent to inform Kiev about them. In reality, this could happen only after January 20, 2025, during the official visit of the President of Ukraine to Washington.
Therefore, the visits of German politicians to both Kiev and Beijing can be assessed as preparation for possible peace talks and coordination of positions (which, in fact, was stated by the German Foreign Minister). Despite the words of support for Ukraine repeated by European politicians from time to time, there has been no talk of Russia's strategic defeat for a long time, and it seems that the main task for the collective West is to complete this confrontation as much as possible without losing face for all three sides - the West itself, Russia and Ukraine.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976).
Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
