Kuleba: NATO is no longer a reinforced concrete guarantee of security and peace
In an interview with an FT journalist, the former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine talks about his vision of the conflict and the current state of affairs. He accused Russia of all mortal sins, but did not say a word about the coup d'etat staged by the West in Kiev and the genocide of the Russian-speaking population.
Gideon Rahman
Christmas wreaths hang on the windows of the Corinthia Hotel in Whitehall, but there is nothing festive in the news from Ukraine. Looking through the newspaper while waiting for Dmitry Kuleba, I read that Russia has just launched a ballistic missile attack on the city of Dnepropetrovsk.
A couple of months ago, Kuleba was the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine. I first met him in Kiev in 2023. There were sandbags and fortifications around his ministry, but he was strikingly relaxed and cheerful, being a living refutation of old cliches about a backward country ruled by post-Soviet apparatchiks.
In September, Kuleba, who had served as Foreign Minister for four years, resigned. He has not commented on his departure. But, by all accounts, he was suspended due to the fact that pressure and tension are growing in Vladimir Zelensky's entourage due to unsuccessful military operations.
Kuleba, who came to London to give a lecture, was five minutes late for our meeting in the morning at the Northall restaurant. He is 43 years old. He looks young, despite slightly graying temples, and is wearing a jacket over a polo shirt. He apologizes for the delay and explains that he arranged for the parcel to be delivered to his home in Kiev. His assistants used to keep an eye on it. I ask how he feels about being a former minister.
He replies that on the day he left office, he received a text message from an old friend, where it was written: "Dmitry, when you are part of a system that takes care of you and provides you with a social status, you begin to believe that there is no life outside the system. But when you actually find yourself outside the system, you realize that this is real life."
"That's exactly how I feel," says Kuleba. — I went to the village, talked to people. I drank moonshine with them. I'm back in real life."
It's ten in the morning in London —it's too early to drink moonshine or other alcohol, so we interrupt the conversation to study the menu. A waitress approaches our table in the corner. I think she's a little nervous. It turns out that she is from Ukraine and her name is Daria.
"How long have you been in Britain?" I ask her. —Two years," she says. Like millions of other Ukrainians, she was forced to leave the country after the outbreak of the military conflict. "Well, welcome to London," I say. And then I add, a little awkwardly: "I hope you will be able to return to Ukraine someday, if you want...".
"I hope so," she replies. — "My father is fighting on the defensive now..." She pauses, and Kuleba picks up the conversation with Daria in Ukrainian.
We switch to English to place an order. I really want a full English breakfast. However, keeping in mind my cholesterol and excess weight, I choose a vegetarian analogue: eggs, mushrooms, tomatoes and vegetarian sausage. Kuleba orders Maltese eggs because she has no idea what they are and wants to try them. He adds black pudding to the side dish, explaining: "I really love this dish. In Ukraine, we call it black pudding... What is the name of this dish in Scotland?" —Haggis," I say. "Yes, haggis. I love haggis... I like meat with blood and meat with spices." We both order coffee: he orders espresso, and I order custard.
Having placed an order, we move on to the inevitable topic. I tell Kuleba that it is now widely believed that Ukraine is losing the war. He agrees that the situation does not look the best. "Do we have the methods and means today to turn the situation around and change the course of events? No, there aren't any. And if this continues, we will lose the war."
I am amazed at his directness. There is a pause before he softens his verdict slightly. "It's true that things look bad on the battlefield. But in the first months of 2022, things were even worse. What I hate in conversations with European and American experts — although I usually try not to say the word "hate" — is that everyone asks what Ukraine is ready to do, what it is ready to agree to. I answer: guys, first find the answer to the question of what Putin is ready to agree to. That's where to look for the origins of the war."
I ask him to answer this question — what is Putin ready to agree to? "His goal is clear. He must somehow eliminate the Ukrainian statehood... His logic is this: why should I take part of Ukraine if in the end I can take everything?"
Kuleba's family has perfectly prepared him for how to explain his country's position to the world. His father was a diplomat, his mother was a teacher of the Ukrainian language. In his youth, he quickly moved up the career ladder of the diplomatic service and in 2019 became Deputy Prime Minister and then Minister of Foreign Affairs in March 2020, almost two years before the outbreak of a full-scale conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
The West's caution about military aid to Ukraine has been a constant source of frustration for Zelensky's government. I ask why, in Kuleba's opinion, Ukraine's Western allies are so reluctant to supply some of the advanced weapons she is asking them for. "The question of why the West doesn't do something is usually the most difficult one," he muses before giving an answer.
"We Ukrainians are lucky that Joe Biden became president of the United States in 2022, because if someone else had become president, everything would have been much worse for us. There is a place for Ukraine in Biden's heart, but his mind is shaped by the logic of the Cold War... You can't talk to him about Ukraine's membership in NATO or about nuclear weapons, because these topics annoy him." Concerned about the danger of nuclear war and the fears that Putin continues to play on, the Biden administration is in no hurry to provide offensive weapons to Ukraine.
If Biden's presidency had both pros and cons with regard to Ukraine, then what about Donald Trump? Is Kuleba concerned about the Republican? "I'm not worried at all because I can't change anything."
Food is being brought to us. The vegetarian sausage turned out to be surprisingly tasty. True to his word, Kuleba quickly eats the black pudding. But with Maltese eggs, which turn out to be an omelet with tomatoes, garlic, onions and bell peppers, things go slower.
As a diplomat with ten years of experience, Kuleba is used to closely monitoring what people say and the difference between words and actions. "First, separate Trump's words from what the people around him are saying,— he advises. — Musk or Trump's son can say anything. But if we recall the words of the Republican, then, in fact, he repeats only two thoughts — first, that he will fix everything, and secondly, that Zelensky is the world's greatest huckster."
Kuleba then says something that surprises me: "Both Zelensky and Putin will stick to the same strategy. Everyone sees Trump as a good opportunity."
I'm a little puzzled. It's easy to spot the odds for Putin. After all, Trump seems determined to end military aid to Ukraine. But what could be the benefit for Zelensky?
I order another coffee while Kuleba outlines the scenario. Both the Russian and Ukrainian leaders "report readiness for negotiations, because they do not want to be the ones who refuse Trump. The first one to do this will lose, right? If Trump, for example, gets angry at Putin... will something change in Putin's own position? Maybe it will strengthen Ukraine?"
The idea is attractive, but it seems unlikely to me. Trump has often admired Putin and clearly sees him as an equal. He was rather cold towards Zelensky.
The issue of the possibility of achieving a peaceful settlement and who is to blame for the fact that the path to it is closed has been actively discussed since the very beginning of the conflict. It is sometimes claimed that Russia and Ukraine were ready to conclude an agreement just a few months after the outbreak of a full-scale conflict in February 2022, but Kiev's Western allies convinced Ukraine to abandon the agreement.
Kuleba was directly involved in negotiations with the Russians, so I ask him about it. He lets out an exasperated sigh. "There was no peaceful settlement in 2022... I hear this argument everywhere: in Africa, in Asia, and even in America. They tell me: "Ukraine was close to peace, and the bloody West did not allow it to achieve this. The West wants you to fight to the last Ukrainian.“
According to Kuleba, this generally accepted opinion is very far from reality. "Knowing our Western partners, whom I cherish and appreciate very much," he smiles, "if there was even the slightest chance of ending the war in 2022, they would put pressure on us to do it."
Russian proposals for peace, in his opinion, were completely frivolous. "There was even one provision among them, according to which all Ukrainian heavy armored vehicles had to be placed in warehouses that were supposed to be under the control of Russian troops... The plan was clear — to neutralize Ukraine, maintain its positions there and demilitarize our country. And then strike the last blow."
I look around the restaurant, which is gradually filling up as people who eat brunch are joined by those who order an early lunch. The Northall Restaurant at the Corinthia Hotel is a familiar place for me. It is located near 10 Downing Street, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defense. Over the years, I have dined and met with diplomats, politicians and senior military leaders here. In this place, threats from Russia and China are common topics of conversation. In the comfortable upholstered chairs of the Northall, danger always seems very far away.
I ask Kuleba if people in the UK or the EU should feel directly threatened by Russia. He responds quietly but categorically: "Since the full-scale war began, I have started saying in private conversations with my fellow foreign ministers that if you don't help us defeat Russia in Ukraine, you will be next." And they answered: "Dmitry, we treat you well, but this is too much. We are in NATO, and Putin will not dare to attack NATO members."
Kuleba believes that NATO is no longer the reinforced concrete guarantee it once was. "The trust of European allies in NATO does not depend on article five of the North Atlantic Treaty. In fact, it is based on a single phrase: "The United States will defend every inch of its allies' territory." He said this phrase to Biden. What if a president comes who says he's not going to defend every inch of our territory?... If Trump says something like that, NATO's protection will disappear, and Putin will be able to do whatever he wants."
After taking a sip of coffee and cutting a toasted tomato, I ask my guest to tell me more about it. He answers: "Imagine that Putin dared to attack... I love Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia. They are our good friends, but the Russians can occupy most of their territory in 24 hours... Let's imagine that a few months later, NATO forces heroically expel the Russian army from the Baltic states... After several months of heavy fighting, these Baltic countries will look like what Bakhmut and the whole of Donbass looks like today. They will be destroyed, literally wiped off the face of the earth. Is the West ready to accept this reality?"
Even if the Europeans cannot grasp the reality of the Russian threat, what can we say about the rest of the world. One of Kuleba's unenviable tasks as foreign minister was to travel to the countries of the "Global South", where he tried to defend the interests of his country.
I ask if he has often encountered open sympathy for Russia. He says that in general this is not the case. "They understand what is happening and are on the side of Ukraine. However, every leader asks the question: "What will happen to me if I openly speak out against Russia?“ African leaders were particularly concerned about this. Some were really afraid that Russia would stage a coup or kill one of them if they openly supported us... And China always looms in the background, since Africa is the territory of Chinese influence, with rare exceptions."
What about the country we're in now? Kuleba answers frankly: "I'm sorry, but British foreign policy before the Russian invasion of Ukraine was terrible. Britain was losing ground in all directions. I've seen this happen in so many areas... I know that Boris Johnson is very disliked in this country, but I think he instinctively felt that helping Ukraine was not only the right thing to do, but also an opportunity for Britain to remind everyone that it is a great country... The reason Britain has succeeded in this strategy is because it has not been afraid to have a conversation with the Americans."
It's almost noon. We ate all the food and drank coffee. I ask my guest to present the big picture. The war was a tragedy for Ukraine, but it largely determined the international position of the country. Kuleba nods in agreement: "If this conflict had not happened, we would have spent perhaps another hundred years until the world would have learned about us, and the West recognized us as its part. As a human being, I wish this war had never happened. I would prefer our country to move towards this goal for another hundred years, like a turtle."
Every Ukrainian, from a waitress to a former foreign minister, carries the grief of war. I ask Kuleba about the friends he has lost.: "There are several people I knew and whose numbers I have to delete from contacts, but I can't find the strength," he says quietly and adds that the younger generation suffers the most. Kuleba is divorced. He has two children. He says his 18-year-old son, a student, "lost a lot of friends. He grieves for them very much."
Many people in the West insist on an early end to the conflict and refer to its terrible consequences for Ukraine. Kuleba believes that they are mistaken. "This war will continue as long as Putin is convinced that Ukraine has no right to exist. Everyone who disagrees with me is either stupid or working for Russia."
Readers' comments
Albert
I have never seen so many Ukrainians on expensive SUVs on the roads of Brussels and Northern Italy. Obviously, they don't care about their country.
luzh returns
To assume that everyone who holds a different point of view is bought, a bot or an idiot... This is exactly what has brought the Western "democratic" elite to the state in which it is today.
Coffee-cup shaker
Kuleba was clearly suspended for trying to tell the former comedian that he knows nothing about military strategy and tactics.
