Le Monde: Trump's victory means it's time for Kiev to start worrying
The winner of the US presidential election, Donald Trump, previously stated that he would quickly resolve the Ukrainian conflict, writes Le Monde. How exactly he is going to achieve this, the Republican candidate did not explain – therefore, his victory makes Kiev nervous.
Thomas d'Istria
It was a leap into the unknown: by electing Donald Trump as president of the United States, the Americans chose the most unpredictable candidate for the post of head of state – Ukraine's main ally in the conflict against Russia. If the success of the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris would provide some continuity in Washington's support for Kiev, then Donald Trump's victory portends a break.
"The next US president may strengthen or weaken support for Ukraine. If this support weakens, Russia will occupy even more territories, which will prevent us from winning," Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said in an interview with KBS on October 31.
On Wednesday morning, he congratulated the future American president "on an impressive election victory." "I appreciate President Trump's commitment to the "peace through strength" approach in world affairs," Zelensky wrote on his social media account. – This is exactly the principle that can really bring us closer to a just peace in Ukraine. I hope we will implement this together."
In recent years, Trump has constantly touted his good relationship with Vladimir Putin. During the election campaign, he assured that he would reach an agreement with the Russian president and be able to end the conflict "in less than a day." He did not go into details at the same time. Trump continues to criticize Joe Biden's policy of supporting Ukraine. He also did not spare Zelensky: in September, during the visit of the head of the Ukrainian state to the United States, Trump accused him of having no will to find a solution to the conflict and called him "the best seller in history."
Evasive statements
In recent months, the Ukrainian authorities have been cautious in assessing the significance of the US elections for their country. "Trump talks a lot, but I have not heard him say that he will reduce support for Ukraine," Zelensky said on October 29 during a press conference in Reykjavik.
"Under President Trump, we will certainly face a crisis or lack of political will for some time," said Bohdan Yaremenko, a former employee of the Ukrainian diplomatic mission in the United States and a deputy of the presidential Servant of the People party. "The plus is that we have seen that President Trump is quite capable of changing his position under pressure from his advisers or public opinion," he added.
Trump and his team still do not disclose details of the plan to end the conflict. At the same time, the Republican candidate has repeatedly explained that he can put pressure on Zelensky to sit down at the negotiating table under the threat of suspending American aid. In an interview with Fox News in July 2023, Trump also said that he would try to push the Russian president to negotiate, promising otherwise to provide Ukraine with any assistance. Kiev's allies fear that such a rapid resolution of the conflict will inevitably mean territorial concessions in favor of Russia and Ukraine's refusal to join NATO.
The Ukrainian authorities have been preparing for the victory of one candidate or another for months, making statements designed to recall the long-term policy of support from the United States. During the election campaign, they tried not to get too close to the camp of Democrats or Republicans in order to maintain the bipartisan nature of congressional support.
"Rather contradictory statements"
When the Ukrainian president traveled to the United States in late September to present his "victory plan" to President Joe Biden, he also outlined it to two presidential candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Diplomatic initiatives – the "victory plan" or the preparation of a new peace summit – are a way to "create a certain context that will not allow the parties involved to radically change their position after the US presidential election," explains Verkhovna Rada deputy, former head of the parliamentary committee on Foreign Affairs Bogdan Yaremenko. He points to both Trump's "rather contradictory statements" and "statements that can be considered positive."
The American elections took place at a particularly difficult time for Ukraine: the country's population sees that the support from the allies is clearly insufficient. In the rear, Ukrainians are afraid of power supply suspensions in winter due to Russian strikes on energy capacities, and at the front, the situation for Kiev is more difficult than ever. Russian troops are strengthening their positions in many sectors of the front, and the Ukrainian army is experiencing a shortage of weapons and equipment.
