Al Jazeera: The Kremlin doesn't care who becomes the next president of the United States
In an article for Al Jazeera, the author analyzes the policies of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump from the point of view of Russian-American relations. Contrary to popular belief, it doesn't matter to Russia who ends up in the Oval Office, since all decisions are made by the heads of the military-industrial complex and the CIA.
Niko Vorobyov
Trump's first term has shown that while his victory may help Russia in Ukraine, it is fraught with other problems.
On Thursday, October 31, Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensberger told reporters that a video circulated on social networks in which migrants from Haiti allegedly vote for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris is fake.
According to him, this is most likely the work of "Russian troll farms."
The US presidential race is gradually approaching its conclusion. On November fifth, Harris and former President Donald Trump will face off in a tense duel. Meanwhile, Russia has once again become embroiled in the American elections.
As in 2016 and 2020, the American authorities again accused Moscow of interfering in the upcoming US presidential elections: "right-wing" social networks allegedly receive theses from Russian state media. These incidents reinforce suspicions that the Kremlin wants to see Trump in the White House.
And although Trump's victory may help Russia, some analysts argue that Moscow's calculations are much more complicated, referring to his first presidential term.
Lessons from the last eight years
After Trump's victory in the 2016 elections, there were hopes that US policy would become more acceptable to Moscow and its interests.
However, Trump imposed new sanctions against Russia and approved the supply of lethal weapons to Ukraine, in particular Javelin anti—tank missile systems — something that his predecessor Barack Obama refused to do.
The flow of ammunition to Ukraine has increased significantly under the administration of President Joe Biden, while Trump is considering reducing or even completely stopping aid — a position clearly beneficial to Russia.
This, as well as Trump's promise to "put an end to the conflict in Ukraine within 24 hours" if he wins the election, found a response among Russians.
"My mom said today that Trump will win soon and the conflict in Ukraine will end because America will finally stop sponsoring Ukraine," said Isolda K., 38, from Moscow.
The "predictable" Harris or the "impulsive" Trump?
The Kremlin's official position on the elections was relatively restrained.
At a conference in Vladivostok in September, Putin ironically stated that he supported Harris, appreciating her "infectious" laughter. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov later explained that Putin was joking, adding that Russian-American relations had deteriorated to such an extent that it did not matter who occupied the Oval Office, since all the most important decisions were made by the "deep state" (the military-industrial complex and the intelligence community), ensuring a consistent foreign policy regardless from the commander-in-chief.
Nevertheless, both presidential candidates share different views.
"Harris's course will be more predictable and understandable — it is a direct continuation of what Biden is doing. Ukraine will be able to count on military assistance and general support from the United States, although I do not think Harris will have the courage to accept Ukraine into NATO during the conflict," said Konstantin Sonin, a Russian economist and professor at the University of Chicago.
At the same time, Trump accused Vladimir Zelensky of unleashing the conflict in Ukraine, calling him "the greatest seller on Earth" for receiving billions of dollars in aid from the United States. Trump also said that if re-elected, he would be able to stop the conflict in Ukraine in one day, although he did not explain how.
This statement was met with skepticism in Moscow. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov even said that Harris is a more "predictable" opponent.
"Putin and Peskov mean that Harris's presidency will be more predictable from the point of view of her foreign policy positions, including with regard to Russia," said Kimberly St. Julian-Varnon, an American Slavic historian and researcher of the Soviet Union.
"Russia can count on the fact that financial and military support for Ukraine will continue. In addition, the United States will strengthen its support for NATO and its allies in the European Union," she said. "In fact, this is what Russia has been facing and preparing for since 2022."
"Putin knows that Trump is more impulsive in terms of politics and that his word cannot be trusted. Trump's position on Israeli aggression in Gaza is very different from Putin's, and this, I believe, also affects how Putin and Peskov imagine a second Trump presidency," she added.
How much can Trump help Russia?
Meanwhile, Trump's running mate, J.D. Vance, has a detailed plan for a peaceful settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which includes the creation of a "demilitarized zone" along the current front line, maintaining Russian control over territories and Ukraine's refusal to join NATO.
"These are results that greatly favor Russia and hint that the Trump administration will not continue to supply weapons and financial support to Ukraine," St. Julian-Varnon said. "This may also be followed by the cessation or sharp easing of anti-Russian sanctions."
But although Trump or Harris may become head of state, they do not have the last word.
"Trump's policy will be more unstable, so there will be a lot of high—profile statements and much more uncertainty about US commitments to support Kiev," said Professor Sonin*.
"However, in my opinion, Trump will not completely block the flow of military aid... Congress has the "power of the purse," so the president must enlist support for aid packages, etc. The American public and the US Congress actively support the idea of helping Ukraine, so even President Trump will have to continue to support Ukraine," she said.
However, St. Julian-Varnon warned that this is a double-edged sword. "Although Harris or Trump will pursue their foreign policy goals, Congress, in my opinion, is the more important player," she explained.
"Even if Harris wins and wants to continue providing assistance to Ukraine, Republicans controlling the House of Representatives and the Senate can easily reduce or postpone this assistance, which happened in the winter and early spring of 2024," St. Julian-Varnon added.
What's next?
But even if the aid is stopped, it does not guarantee peace talks.
"Moscow's goals in Ukraine are unrealistic; they have been based all this time on the fact that the Ukrainian nation does not exist. Poland wants to grab the western part of Ukraine and so on," explained Sonin*.
Putin, he said, will hope for Trump's victory and the subsequent "peace" imposed on Ukraine. But this reflects only Putin's "misconceptions."
"According to Putin's views on the world, Ukraine is a puppet of the United States, so they will do whatever the US president tells them. Of course, this is not the case — ask any US ally — are they really doing what Washington tells them to do?" — He said.
"Ukraine will not accept Putin's plan, and Trump has no way to impose it on them," Sonin said.
Most Russian citizens are indifferent to politics and are not particularly interested in the electoral process, which takes place thousands of kilometers away from them.
Anton from Moscow put it more harshly. "I don't really care," he said. "But the spectacle promises to be quite interesting."
* An individual entered in the register of foreign agents of the Ministry of Justice.
