Colonel Khodarenok: The Ukrainian Armed Forces will have to withdraw to the Dnieper in case of loss of Donbass
The Russian military took the city of Selidovo. It is becoming increasingly difficult for the Ukrainian army to maintain defensive lines and positions in the Donbas with continuous attacks and fire strikes by Russian troops. The Ukrainian Armed Forces occupy the last prepared line of defense in Donbass. Beyond it begins the steppe, in the conditions of which it will be very difficult to defend. The military observer of Gazeta discusses what awaits the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the event of the loss of Donbass and where they will be able to gain a foothold.En" Mikhail Khodarenok.
The Ukrainian army has practically lost Donbass, and it is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain defensive lines and positions with continuous attacks and fire strikes by Russian troops. This is reported by the German edition of Handelsblatt.
The incessant attacks of the Russian Armed Forces almost all along the line of contact put the units and formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in a very difficult position. For example, in the South Donetsk direction, the Ukrainian army has been holding the front almost since the beginning of its military operation in 2022. However, at the beginning of 2024, Avdiivka was first lost, and then the "impregnable bastion of the Ukrainian spirit" (according to Ukrainian analysts) - Ugledar fell. The city of Selidovo has just been abandoned by the APU.
Since then, the units and formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, exhausted and weakened by constant defensive battles, simply cannot stop the further advance of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Currently, the threat of the loss of Kurakhovo and Pokrovsk is becoming more than real for the Ukrainian army.
After the Russian army stormed these settlements, the terrain all the way to the Dnieper is flat as a table and devoid of any masking and protective properties, as well as large cities that could be strongholds and fortified areas in the defense system of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. What impact does dense urban development have on the success of defense, the Newspaper previously wrote in detail.Ru». That is, real opportunities are being created for the Russian army to take control of a huge territory.
Fighting in the steppe
And indeed, the stubborn retention by troops of the most important borders and areas in the conditions of the South Ukrainian steppe is becoming a very difficult task to solve. For example, during the Great Patriotic War, the Wehrmacht in this region preferred to withdraw beyond the Dnieper, rather than conduct stubborn defensive operations in an open field.
In order to gain a foothold in new defensive positions after the inevitable withdrawal from the cities, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will need to carry out almost anew the fortification equipment of the defense strip, create a system of engineering barriers, and carry out measures to disguise troops and facilities.
It will be extremely difficult to do this in an open field, and even in conditions of impending thaw and winter cold. It is one thing to defend oneself in the city, using basements and underground structures for recreation and restoration of combat capability of personnel, and it is completely another to do all this knee-deep in water in a hastily dug trench in an open field.
For example, in the conditions of a flat steppe, it is possible to equip platoon and company strongpoints with the creation of trench systems in them. But it is almost impossible to hide the created defensive positions from all types of enemy intelligence in any way. Therefore, during the conduct of hostilities, the parties always apply the outline of their defensive lines to the terrain and, first of all, to settlements.
As you know, the volume and timing of fortification equipment are determined by the conditions of the terrain, the availability of time and effort, the plan and decision for the operation. The most important thing is that the APU does not have time. And the Ukrainian troops will have to work in an open area and under continuous fire attacks by the Russian army.
"They will put Kiev in a difficult position"
Meanwhile, the President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky, has set the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Alexander Syrsky, the task of holding Pokrovsk and Kurakhovo by any means. The leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine does not seem to have the necessary forces and means for this.
As for the units and formations of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, it is quite possible that after the capture of the last large settlements in the Donbas, real conditions will be created for them to quickly reach the left bank of the Dnieper. In this case, the non-stop advance of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will significantly depend on the timely entry into battle of the operational level reserves available to the Supreme High Command of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. There is every reason to believe that Russia has such reserves.
The end of the fighting in the Donbas and the exit of the Russian army to the left bank of the Dnieper will significantly change the overall situation on the fronts of its own in favor of Moscow and put Kiev in a very, very difficult position. The prospects of ending the conflict in this case, at least with minimal advantages in favor of Ukraine, are becoming more than illusory. All sorts of "victory plans" by Vladimir Zelensky after the final abandonment of the Donbass Armed Forces for the widest segments of the Ukrainian population will be something like the fruit of excited fantasies.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976).
Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
