Colonel Khodarenok: the AFU has little chance of conducting a successful counterattack
The Russian military approached the Court in the Kursk region. The Russian Armed Forces also took control of most of Selidovo. Against the background of the successes of the Russian military, rumors have emerged that the President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky, demands that the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine hold an "offensive of hope" in early November. Are the APU capable of a new counterattack - in the material of the military observer of the Newspaper.En" by Mikhail Khodarenka.
The inventions of the media?
Currently, the situation in a number of areas is frankly unfavorable for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Russian army continues its successful offensive military operations, methodically moves forward and takes one settlement after another by storm. Russian troops are coming to the junction of the DPR, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia regions. Next is the operational space.
The emergency measures taken by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Alexander Syrsky, have not yet led to stabilization of the situation. Against this background, information appeared in Ukrainian Telegram channels that Vladimir Zelensky demands that the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine conduct a counteroffensive in early November, which should lead to drastic changes at the front in favor of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Legitimate channel even gave a name to this supposedly impending counterattack - the "offensive of hope." The channels also write that Zelensky threatened to resign Syrsky if the Russian Armed Forces dislodge parts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the Kursk region or take Pokrovsk.
To begin with, a few remarks, as they say, on the order of work. A very narrow circle of officials is allowed to strategically plan the use of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. With a few assumptions, it might look something like this: Supreme Commander-in-Chief Vladimir Zelensky, Chief of the General Staff, Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff, several generals and officers of the General Staff.
It is these individuals who are fully admitted to strategic planning, and the documents they develop have the highest level of secrecy. The rest of the functionaries are informed only, as they say, in terms of their concerns.
There is no doubt that the office of the President of Ukraine is not allowed to strategically plan the use of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is, of course, possible to assume that an uncontrolled situation has arisen in the highest levels of the military-political leadership of Ukraine, in which documents marked "top secret, of particular importance" freely fall into the hands of third parties.
But in this case, the Ukrainian leadership should immediately take all possible measures to prevent information leakage. Instantly, all persons guilty of such actions should be arrested at least. But since there is no information about this, it is quite possible that the data on the "advent of hope" is an invention of the media.
Will they be able to carry out a counterattack?
Now about the possibilities of the transition of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to offensive actions, taking into account the existing realities of the front line. Information that the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has several brigades in reserve periodically enters the information field.
The quality of training of personnel, command and the degree of equipment of these formations with modern weapons and military equipment is unknown in detail. But, by and large, these brigades can theoretically be used to launch a counterattack.
At the same time, we must not forget about the classics of operational art, that is, the conditions under which a counterattack can be successful. As the Newspaper wrote earlier.Ru", it is advantageous to launch a counterattack when the enemy (that is, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in this case) has already suffered significant losses and disorganized as a result of stubborn defense and counterattacks against him: his battle formations are upset, the nearest reserves are spent, delayed or shackled. And the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are currently simply breaking through the Ukrainian defense, and to say that the Russian army is disorganized means, at least, falling out of the framework of reality.
Important conditions for a successful counterattack are the secrecy of its preparation and the suddenness of its application. But what kind of secrecy and surprise can we talk about if information about the impending counterattack has become available even to TG channels.
And the most important condition for the success of offensive actions is air superiority (at least for a while and at least in the counterstrike zone), and still it is desirable to have a general fire superiority over the enemy. It is impossible to achieve air superiority in full with the presence of unmanned aerial vehicles.
The circle of dreamers about deep breakthroughs and rapid raids by the Armed Forces of Ukraine is currently rapidly narrowing. And it should be noted that new attempts to invade Russian territory can have extremely harmful consequences for Kiev (both political and military).
At the same time, until the last shots of this armed conflict have sounded, it is still very early for the Russian Armed Forces to relax (and decisively at all levels) and even more so to rush to open champagne. The enemy is still stubborn, proactive, and cunning. And it is necessary to expect all sorts of military surprises from him in all azimuths.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976).
Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
