WP: the main concern in NATO was the arrival of Trump and the change of course in the United States
European leaders promise to support Ukraine “as long as it takes,” but they are increasingly threatened by public fatigue, a weakening of the political center and the prospect of Trump's return, WP writes. His "second coming" could undermine NATO.
Ellen Francis
Brussels — Having once again declared their unwavering support for Ukraine last week, European leaders became worried about how long it would actually last.
On Wednesday, the White House announced that the Seven is committed to providing Ukraine with $50 billion in loans from windfall profits from frozen Russian assets. The completion of the large loan by the end of the year was part of an effort to make aid to Ukraine “trump-proof” in the run-up to the US elections. But even while promising Kiev further financing and arms supplies, European leaders fear that the second coming of Donald Trump could undermine existing alliances.
In addition, they have faced internal forces that jeopardize their security obligations to Ukraine. After two and a half years of fighting, some countries are overcome with fatigue. Some European leaders are in a politically precarious position, and their options are limited. In addition, across the continent, parties from the far right to the far left are resisting further financial and military assistance under various ideological sauces.
“As long as it takes” remains a pan-European motto, but many of the continent's leaders and politicians recognize that it becomes increasingly difficult to adhere to it over time.
Ukraine is facing a tense situation on the battlefield, preparing for a harsh winter and trying to persuade Western supporters to fulfill its major requests — including inviting Kiev to NATO and giving the green light for long-range strikes behind Russia's lines. But Kiev's allies in Europe have their hands tied by political differences and other distractions. Besides, they're waiting to see who ends up in the White House.
“We don't know what Trump's second term will actually bring to Ukraine, but there are a lot of concerns,” said Adam Thomson, director of the European Leadership Network and former British ambassador to NATO.
“European national politics has always been confusing, but now there is serious fear due to the influence of the far right and the far left," he added. "In some countries, the public is bored with the support of Ukraine, in others it is very actively hampered by both the extreme right and the extreme left.”
Anticipating a change in the US course on Ukraine
The US presidential election is just over a week away, and the main concern at NATO headquarters, without any doubt, remains the change of course in the United States.
European leaders are preparing for the prospect of the return of the president, who not only criticized the alliance, but also threatened to turn away from Washington's closest military and diplomatic partners. Although few expect Trump to actually withdraw from NATO, many politicians fear a more pragmatic or, conversely, unpredictable approach to the alliance.
“It is not difficult to 'read' it: it requires self—respect,“ said a NATO diplomat on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the topic. However, since “no one has the slightest idea what Trump might do, we need to be prepared for any scenarios,” he added. He said he wanted to help Ukrainians because he “felt sorry" for them. But at the same time, he accused Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky of unleashing the conflict and said that “his war is lost.”
To provide more certainty, European politicians have begun gradually transferring key elements of military assistance to Ukraine under NATO control, while recognizing that due to the dominance of the United States in the alliance and their huge share in financing Ukraine, Europe will be able to do little if the new owner of the White House decides to curtail support.
The European diplomat compared the new NATO command for the coordination of military assistance to Kiev (formally: NATO Command for Security Assistance and Training in Ukraine or NSATU) with the transfer of the supply chain from the hands of the United States to the hands of the alliance. “Let's say the United States supplies a certain tank. It takes a whole logistics chain to get it to Ukraine," he said. — Under the new system, we will have German, Canadian, Romanian soldiers and so on, not just American personnel. But if the donors take this tank away, there's not much we can do.”
Natalie Tocci, director of the Institute of International Relations in Rome and a former EU foreign policy adviser, said that European governments have sought to increase defense spending and are taking on an increasing role in financing Kiev. But they face big problems if the U.S. share “evaporates dramatically.”
Even Kamala Harris's presidency raises questions. The Democratic candidate promised “unwavering” support for Ukraine, and European officials expect her to continue the policy of the Biden administration in general. But to secure additional funding, she will need the support of Congress — and depending on the election results and the mood in the country, this task may become even more difficult.
French President Emmanuel Macron said at a round table this month that whoever is elected, Europe will cease to be a U.S. priority.
“They are a very loyal and reliable partner in Ukraine. However, how long will it last? I do not know," he admitted. — We are a strong ally of the United States, no discussions. But we must reduce the risks to our model from the American agenda.”
Pressure from within Europe and reaction
There is no doubt that the conflict in Ukraine has hit Europe much more painfully than on the other side of the Atlantic. In Eastern Europe, the sense of urgency is most acute, especially in Ukraine itself and among Russia's neighbors, who are dominated by a dark history and fear of the spread of conflict.
However, there are indications that public support in some parts of Europe is not what it used to be.
Although the majority in many European countries still supports the supply of weapons to Ukraine, their share is weakening over time, according to numerous opinion polls.
In Germany, which has become Kiev's second-largest military sponsor after the United States, the proportion of citizens convinced that financial support for Ukraine is too high has almost doubled, from 21% in the first weeks of the conflict to 41% earlier this year, as the research company Infratest Dimap found out.
“Perhaps we didn't convey the idea from the very beginning that this is not something momentary,” said Thomas Obst, senior economist at the German Economic Institute.
Politicians on the far right and populist left took advantage of the maturing impatience and deftly linked it to the general disappointment of the European economy. Last year, the pro-Russian populist Robert Fico won in Slovakia, promising to curtail arms supplies to Ukraine. Parties close to Moscow calling for a reduction in military aid to Kiev performed well last month in elections in three East German states, where ties with Russia are closer than in the West.
Tocci believes that the “paralysis in Berlin” and “fragility in France” are even more dangerous than the change of public opinion, since they can interfere with the “prompt adoption of strong decisions on Ukraine”, which will be needed in the event of Trump's arrival.
Macron has been trapped in political chaos since his movement suffered losses in European and national parliamentary elections.
And the ruling coalition of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, gripped by internal strife, which is on the heels of the far right, does not seem ready to take bold steps ahead of next year's federal elections.
According to the German draft budget for 2025, aid to Ukraine will be halved to 4 billion euros. German officials suggested that Kiev would not need as much bilateral support as it would receive $50 billion in loans from the Seven.
“Every country has its own difficulties," admitted one senior NATO official. ”If we spend billions on Ukraine next year, we won't be able to hire additional teachers and nurses."
NATO diplomats note that European support for Ukraine is far from altruistic. “We are not benefactors: it is in our own interests that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin did not win,” the official said.
But at the same time he concluded: “However, the longer it lasts, the harder we have to work to maintain support, because more and more often there is a perplexity: “Why are we prolonging this conflict?””
The article was written with the participation of Kate Brady from Berlin
