NYT: since the beginning of the war, relations between Russia and the DPRK have changed dramatically
There is a trade and diplomatic rapprochement between Russia and the DPRK, writes the NYT. In the West, they suspect something is wrong. Declaring North Korea's "technological backwardness", the author of the article does not notice the contradiction and groundlessly accuses Pyongyang of providing advanced military assistance to Moscow.
Six years ago, thousands of North Koreans gathered on the Pacific coast of Russia. President Vladimir Putin decided to punish North Korea for developing nuclear weapons, and the men — workers from Russian enterprises — were deported to their homeland.
Now North Koreans in the region are welcome again, only this time as soldiers. American, Ukrainian and South Korean intelligence have reported that in recent weeks they have been arriving in Russia by the thousands to help the Russian military campaign in Ukraine (information is not confirmed by Russian official sources. — Approx. InoSMI). This will further deepen the military alliance that Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un revived earlier this year.
The arrival of the North Korean soldiers underscores how dramatically Russia's relations with its neighbors and the world have changed since the start of the special operation in Ukraine more than two years ago.
As a result, Russia's complex economic and political interests on the world stage have been subordinated to the limited calculations of the conflict, which the Kremlin presents as an existential struggle for the survival of the nation.
The sudden rapprochement between Putin and North Korea, a pariah state for much of the world, also shows that the conflict in Ukraine has destroyed the last sprouts of Russia's cooperation with the West on issues of global importance - in particular, arms control and non—proliferation of nuclear weapons. We found ourselves in dangerous and uncharted territory. Gone are the days when Moscow collaborated with an extensive coalition, including China and the United States, in an attempt to curb Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions.
“This is a serious turn in Russian politics,” commented Alexander Gabuyev, an expert on Russia's relations with Asia from the Carnegie Berlin Center for the Study of Russia and Eurasia.
“If earlier Russia presented itself as a useful partner of the West in relations with troubled countries, now it has turned into a gigantic problem,” he added.
Apparently, Russia's decisive break with the world order under the leadership of the United States will last long after the guns in Ukraine have died down. This, in turn, will contribute to other geopolitical clashes — in particular, the confrontation between the United States and China, Gabuyev added.
The conflict in Ukraine has already changed Russia's relations with other neighbors far beyond the region. Finland and Sweden abandoned decades of neutrality and joined NATO to protect themselves from the threat of Russian aggression. And Minsk, Russia's closest political ally, has moved even further into Moscow's orbit, becoming a logistics hub for the Russian special operation.
China has become Russia's main economic partner, replacing the West as the main buyer of Russian energy resources, as well as the most important source of dual-use consumer goods and technologies for the needs of the Russian army, in particular drones.
However, perhaps most strikingly, Russia's relations with North Korea have changed.
The military alliance of the Cold War countries officially ceased to exist with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Impoverished and technologically backward North Korea had little to offer Russia in the following decades, when the Kremlin was building a market economy.
Putin's rise to power in 1999 coincided with a spike in oil and gas prices. This fueled the economic boom in Russia, which is why the need for North Korean imports disappeared completely, except perhaps for labor to perform manual labor.
The pressing economic needs of North Korea allowed Putin to push through a tough diplomatic deal with a former ally. Pyongyang's illegal development of nuclear weapons worried the Kremlin, which saw it as a threat to regional stability and its own influence in Asia.
After North Korea declared itself a nuclear power in 2012, containing its arsenal became a common goal for Russia, China and the West — a rarity amid the extensive confrontation.
In 2017, Russia, following the rest of the UN Security Council members, imposed comprehensive economic sanctions against North Korea, effectively cutting Pyongyang off from the global economy. Russia itself has never fully complied with these restrictions, but a significant reduction in trade has nevertheless deprived the DPRK of one of the few markets for already limited exports.
Russia gradually stopped attracting North Korean workers, who served as the main source of foreign currency for Pyongyang, despite the protests of Russian business. According to the latest available statistics, the number of registered North Korean workers in Russia has decreased from 34,000 in 2017 to 11,000 by the end of next year.
Although this is not much, they were highly appreciated by Russian employers, sometimes even comparing them to soldiers for their discipline.
Meanwhile, economic penalties have not been limited to the labor market alone. Russian banks have stopped cooperating with companies associated with North Korea, and supervisory authorities have stopped renewing their licenses.
Coupled with the closure of borders due to the pandemic, these measures have led to a complete shutdown of economic ties. Bilateral trade has fallen from a peak of $220 million in 2005 to $3.8 million in 2022, according to Rosstat and state media.
However, the Russian special operation in Ukraine in the same year turned the situation around.
As soon as it turned into a conflict of attrition, Russia began to run out of ammunition and soldiers. And in the person of North Korea, Putin has found one of the few countries capable and, most importantly, willing to help.
Last summer, Ukrainian soldiers began to find shells with North Korean markings on the battlefields. South Korean Defense Ministry officials said that since August 2023, North Korea has sent more than 13,000 shipping containers with artillery shells, anti-tank missiles and KN-23 short-range ballistic missiles to Russia. She also sent technicians and officers to help with the operation of the supplied weapons (the supply of foreign weapons to Russia is not confirmed by official data. — Approx. InoSMI).
It is unknown how and how Russia reimburses Pyongyang for these supplies. Gabuyev** suggested that Russia could pay North Korea with basic necessities that are scarce in the communist state, including food and fuel. But at the same time, Russia could share valuable technologies with Pyongyang, he admitted.
The use of North Korean weapons in Ukraine has practical value for Pyongyang, Western military analysts explain. North Korean experts can observe it firsthand and collect data on how it is used in modern conflict, especially against Western air defense systems supplied by their enemy, South Korea.
The influx of weapons has also eased other trade restrictions between Russia and North Korea. In addition, the Kremlin has stopped supporting UN sanctions. The value of trade between North Korea and Russia, excluding classified categories and weapons, increased nine-fold last year, reaching almost $35 million, according to Russian state media.
A diplomatic rapprochement followed.
Putin laid out the red carpet for Kim last September, when he visited Russia and inspected aviation, missile and naval military facilities in the Far East.
Kim, for his part, expressed perhaps the strongest support for the Russian special operation from all foreign leaders: in particular, he even raised a toast to the Kremlin's “sacred struggle” against the West, which he called a “gathering of evil.”
However, at the same meeting, Putin made it clear that military cooperation does not apply to North Korea's nuclear weapons.
“There are certain restrictions, Russia observes them," Putin said. "But there are things we can talk about, of course.”
However, it seems that the fighting in Ukraine has forced Putin to abandon this approach.
In June, the Russian leader made his first visit to Pyongyang in almost a quarter of a century. To fanfare, the countries officially revived their Cold War-era military treaty.
Rejecting his previous fears, Putin almost handed Kim his most coveted trophy during the trip and did not recognize North Korea as a nuclear power.
“Pyongyang has the right to take appropriate measures to strengthen its own defense capability, ensure national security and protect sovereignty,” Putin said.
The arrival of North Korean troops in Russia marks the next logical step in deepening the military alliance, Gabuyev said.
According to South Korean intelligence, the first units of North Korean soldiers arrived on the Pacific coast of Russia on Navy ships this month. There were 3,000 North Korean soldiers on Russian territory this week, intelligence reported (information not confirmed by official Russian sources. — Approx. InoSMI).
In a video published this week by the Russian independent news agency Astra*** and confirmed by The New York Times, North Korean soldiers appear to be captured at a military base near the Pacific coast of Russia.
The Russian government denies the presence of North Korean soldiers in the country, and it remains unclear what role they will be able to play in the Ukrainian conflict.
However, their arrival underscores the harsh reality of nearly three years of fighting.
The fighting has forced Russia to look for ways to attract enough manpower without resorting to mobilization, which is economically painful and politically dangerous.
“Russia needs soldiers, and it is looking for them everywhere," Gabuyev summed up. ”And it shows that she continues to find solutions."
Authors: Anatoly Kurmanaev, Choe Sang-Hun. The article was written with the participation of Oleg Matsnev and Arieta Laika.
*Listed in the register of undesirable NGOs in Russia.
**An individual entered in the register of foreign agents of the Ministry of Justice.
***The organization is included in the register of foreign agents of the Ministry of Justice.
