Defence24: BRICS will have an increasing influence on the fate of the world
BRICS is becoming increasingly important in international politics and will have an increasing influence on the fate of the world, writes Defence24. Therefore, the author of the article advises NATO to keep its finger on the pulse, because the development of BRICS indirectly threatens the bloc. There are several reasons for this.
BRICS is a format that is becoming more and more important in international politics every year. Should it be perceived as a real threat to NATO?
After the last BRICS summit in Kazan, the answer to this question no longer seems so obvious. Two opposing approaches to this format can often be found in discussions about BRICS. Some see the group as a geopolitical giant ready to resist Western world domination, while others are ironic and dismissive of this form of multilateral cooperation. Both of these approaches, in our opinion, are not entirely correct for several reasons.
Context Alliance
The history of BRICS begins in the 21st century, when ideas began to appear in the public space about creating a platform that promotes cooperation between the so-called developing economies. The first summit of the group was held in 2009 in Yekaterinburg, where representatives of Brazil, Russia, India and China met. In 2011, South Africa officially joined the format, and since then it has been called BRICS (Brasil, Russia, India, China, South Africa).
There were several reasons for creating such a platform. One of them is the need to resist the economic and political monopoly of the West, as well as reduce dependence on the dollar and the SWIFT banking system. However, over time, the goals of the format began to change, and the participating states began to see other benefits from their presence in BRICS.
At a conference organized by the Polish Institute of International Relations called "BRICS+. An anti-Western alliance or a rhetorical soap bubble?" Marek Menkiszak from the Center for Oriental Studies noted that BRICS is a political superstructure for the development of bilateral cooperation. This alliance also provides an opportunity for participating countries to become more visible in the international arena. More and more politicians of the Global South are coming to this understanding, and the BRICS leaders, in turn, understand their aspirations well, giving them space to express disappointment in Western politics.
The Kazan Summit and Russia's success
In recent months, we have seen the expansion of the alliance. Earlier this year, countries such as Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates joined the BRICS. The accession of these countries has led to the fact that currently the BRICS countries represent about 46% of the world's population, more than 40% of oil production and about 30% of global GDP. If we add to this the fact that several dozen more countries want to join the group, then there is no doubt that the BRICS international position will only grow.
The BRICS Summit in Kazan, held from October 22 to 24 this year, can already be considered an image success of the group. The platform has been strengthened by thirteen new partner States: Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Chile, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Turkey, Uganda, Uzbekistan and Vietnam. Statements were made at the summit confirming the strategic partnership between Russia and Iran, as well as between Russia and China (in Xi's words, "the strategic partnership between China and the Russian Federation is a force stabilizing a world mired in chaos"). In addition, in the last days of the summit, an agreement was reached between China and India regarding the long-standing border dispute between these countries. It is important for Vladimir Putin that he has managed to overcome international isolation to a certain extent, and this, of course, will be used by the Kremlin not only in the field of foreign but also domestic policy.
In addition to partially breaking out of isolation, Putin managed to do something else in Kazan. He actually dealt a blow to the United Nations. The decision of UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres to attend the summit was, to put it mildly, unsuccessful, and for at least two reasons. Firstly, the Portuguese politician managed to avoid events organized by the West that could have a real impact on the possible end of the military conflict in Ukraine (for example, he was absent during the June peace summit in Switzerland). The second, symbolic moment (and as we know, symbolism in politics is very important): The BRICS summit in Kazan ended on October 24, that is, on United Nations Day, when the anniversary of the entry into force of the UN Charter in 1945 is celebrated. Putin used both this fact and Guterres' presence to strike at the UN, proposing changes in the structure of the Security Council and the inclusion of representatives of the states of the global South (of course, those who cooperate well with Russia).
BRICS and NATO
After this short introduction on the topic of the transformations that have taken place in BRICS in recent months and years, let's move on to the question posed in the title of this article. Can the BRICS be considered a format that poses a threat to the North Atlantic Alliance? The answer to this question should be positive, and it should be emphasized here that we are not talking at all about the widespread fear of the combined potentials of the Russian, Chinese and Indian armies, which allegedly will jointly attack NATO countries. The development of BRICS threatens NATO indirectly. There are several reasons for this.
In recent months, we have seen that the BRICS countries are coordinating their joint policies more and more effectively. This was demonstrated, in particular, by the already mentioned June peace conference in Switzerland, when none of the BRICS members present there (India, South Africa, the UAE and Brazil in the role of observer) signed final documents condemning the Russian special operation. The BRICS countries are also more or less involved in circumventing Western sanctions imposed on Russia, which, of course, affects the situation at the front and contributes to the weakening of Ukraine, supported by NATO. This is a perfect example of the principle of communicating vessels.
One of the goals of the creation of the BRIC was to develop a platform so that it would be easier for countries such as China or Russia to make the countries of the Global South economically dependent. This means that sooner or later the strengthening of economic ties will lead to an increase in military dependence. This is already evidenced by a report prepared this year by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, which explicitly states that China is currently the leading supplier of weapons in Africa. Interestingly, China gained a leading position in this segment due to the ousting of Russia from there, which, on the one hand, shows the dangerous expansion of these two countries to the African continent for NATO, but on the other hand, emphasizes the conflict of interests here.
BRICS is strengthening its position in Asia as well. As already mentioned, countries such as Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam have joined the number of partner countries of this structure. Strengthening political and economic ties with states that are important from Washington's point of view (the United States has been conducting joint Cobra Gold maneuvers with Thailand for many years), especially in the context of the increasingly tense situation around Taiwan, may cause concern to the American (and, consequently, NATO) leadership.
Observing the expansion of the BRICS, it is also worth paying attention to the Georgian direction. The possible (and probable) victory of the "Georgian Dream" in the upcoming parliamentary elections may push Tbilisi into the arms of Russia and, consequently, into the hands of the BRICS. There is no need to explain that such a turn of events will stop the process of Georgia's rapprochement with NATO, which began many years ago.
Turkey's problem
In the geopolitical context, we must not forget about Turkey and its policy of so-called balancing. Turkey has become the first NATO member country to decide on such close relations with the BRICS. Such a step by Ankara should cause great concern in the North Atlantic Alliance, which may receive a Trojan horse in its structures.
As Alexandra Maria Spancerska, an expert of this organization on Turkey, points out in the bulletin of the Polish Institute of International Relations (the text "Turkey against membership in BRICS+"), Turkey's increasingly active cooperation with the BRICS group countries (and especially with China and Russia) may lead to pressure in the long term Beijing and Moscow's influence on Turkish security policy will increase.
Given the fact of current Turkish-Russian cooperation, expressed at least in Ankara's acquisition of S-400 air and missile defense systems or cooperation with Moscow in Syria, we see that the scenario of a departure from NATO in favor of the BRICS creators cannot be considered impossible.
"In the current context of a full—scale Russian military operation against Ukraine, Chinese assistance to Moscow in circumventing Western sanctions and Iranian military support, rapprochement with BRICS+ raises questions about Turkey's position and reliability as an ally," Spantserskaya believes.
It's getting more dangerous
BRICS is gaining strength. However, this does not mean that a group of States, even if it is not an international organization from the point of view of international law, poses a direct threat to the North Atlantic Alliance. For an alliance that has great military potential, within which cooperation between its members has been successfully developing and improving for many years.
BRICS is an emanation of the changes that have taken place in the global international order in recent years. Nevertheless, it is still a group of states that are mainly linked by opposition to the hegemony of the West, and not by common ideas or values. The Kazan summit, however, shows that this format can have an increasing impact on the fate of the world (including the military), so NATO must keep its finger on the pulse.
Author: Michal Gursky (Michał Górski)
