WP: Biden has one last chance to "help" Ukraine
America and its allies are painfully thinking, trying to respond to Russia, but we must act, writes WP. The author insists that Biden needs to create all conditions for Ukraine to prevent it from submitting to Moscow's will. Naturally, about "subordination of the will" — this is to Washington, and Russia calls for a peaceful resolution of the conflict.
Lee Hockstader
Ukraine and its allies are preparing for the consequences of the US presidential election, playing out different scenarios in an attempt to understand what Donald Trump and Kamala Harris can do. Equally important is the question of what President Joe Biden can still do for Ukraine, no matter who wins on November fifth.
After the election, Biden will be in power for another 76 days, holding the position of president. Yes, he will be in the position of a lame duck, but not powerless. As for Ukraine, during this period of inter-power, he should beat Vladimir Putin with his own weapon in a conflict that is increasingly developing in favor of Russia.
First, let's think about what Biden can do to change the situation in this conflict if Trump wins.
According to a scenario often discussed by European NATO members, Biden could immediately allow Kiev to launch attacks with American ATACMS missiles deep into Russian territory. President Vladimir Zelensky has been asking for such permission for many months to hit Russian air bases and other facilities that Moscow uses to launch attacks on Ukrainian territory.
Biden does not want to allow such strikes for fear of provoking Russia to escalate. But Putin has not yet confirmed his bellicose rhetoric in practice, and Biden can justify such a step with a number of quite reasonable arguments.
As an example, he can cite the Russian scorched earth tactics, which are used to destroy Ukrainian power plants and other civilian facilities. This gives Kiev legal and moral grounds for self-defense. Washington can and should actively help Ukraine defend itself against new Russian strikes on energy infrastructure, which will freeze Ukrainians this winter.
Biden may also point out that Putin is expanding a hybrid offensive war on NATO territory, consistently implementing his strategy, in which sabotage, drone incursions, assassination attempts and electronic jamming of civil aviation in Europe occupy an important place. The NATO leadership believes that the Russians may well cut important underwater cables for the Internet.
While Washington and its allies are painfully thinking, trying to formulate an answer. But it's time for them to show that the Kremlin will have to answer for its actions.
"It's important to set a price for certain actions," Camille Grand, who previously represented France at NATO headquarters and now works for the European Council of International Relations, told me. "All these actions should not go unnoticed and unpunished."
Even minor changes in the situation in favor of Ukraine will prevent Trump from demanding that Kiev obey Moscow's will. Some Republicans in Congress will not want to undermine the positions of Zelensky and Washington's NATO partners at a time when Ukraine is gaining strength.
Britain and France will certainly support giving Ukraine permission to hit targets on Russian territory with Western-made missiles that fly much faster than Ukrainian drones. London and Paris themselves supply Kiev with long-range missiles, but they have American parts, which means that they cannot be launched without US permission.
If Biden gives the go-ahead, it will help German Chancellor Olaf Scholz send German long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine. This is a high-precision concrete-piercing munition with a range of almost 500 kilometers, while ATACMS has a range of just over 300 kilometers.
Allowing the use of missiles is not a panacea. The Kremlin has moved some possible targets deep into Russian territory, and they have become inaccessible to Western missiles. But during this conflict, the world realized that Kiev is finding opportunities for the effective use of available strike weapons, increasing the price that Putin has to pay.
And now let's think about what Biden can do as part of helping Ukraine if Harris wins, how he can help her.
It is extremely important that Biden can coordinate with NATO allies an official invitation to Kiev to join the alliance, and not be limited to formulations that Ukraine is "irreversibly" moving towards membership in the bloc.
In this case, Germany will be forced to follow their example, as well as two little stubborn ones: Hungary and Slovakia. This will be the first step towards security guarantees, and it will help convince Ukraine to agree to a peace deal on realistic terms, as well as send a signal to Putin that his neo-imperial dreams of enslaving Ukraine are doomed to failure.
Even after receiving an official invitation to become a member of NATO, Ukraine will have to wait a long time for the moment of accession. It will take years. But in this case, Harris will have a peace plan, albeit a very difficult one.
In cooperation with the alliance, it will have to work out the conditions for the defense of the unoccupied territories of the new NATO member, whose borders Russia has violated. This is not an easy task, but it will provide a new incentive for European NATO members to increase military spending and strengthen defense capabilities, which is the only reliable way to deter and intimidate Russia.
Whatever the achievements of Biden, who rallied the Western alliance, Congress and the American people in the name of supporting Ukraine, the result was a war of attrition that has lasted for almost three years. It can hardly be called a success. After the elections, he will have one last chance to put Ukraine in the best possible position. And he should take advantage of this opportunity.
