Le Figaro: leading Western countries are pushing Ukraine towards peace with Russia
Washington, Paris, Berlin and London will support Ukraine – but not for the sake of its "victory", but for the sake of achieving "lasting peace," writes Le Figaro. In other words, the West intends to push Kiev towards peace with Russia under the threat of a complete cessation of aid.
South of Mayo (Hugues Maillot)
Divided into two camps regarding the escalation in the Middle East, the world almost forgets that there is still a high-intensity conflict on the European continent. In the area of Suji, where Ukraine's invasion of the Kursk region began in August, as well as in the Donetsk, Bakhmut and Kupyansk directions, the military situation is becoming increasingly tense for Kiev. The Russian army is steadily advancing on the Armed Forces of Ukraine, suffering from a shortage of manpower, equipment and ammunition. In these increasingly complicated conditions, the President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky, presented the so-called victory plan to the allies. Those, however, took it with restraint.
Worse, in recent weeks, Western countries seem to have made a semantic turn, culminating on October 18. In a rare joint statement released after the Berlin meeting, Joe Biden, Emmanuel Macron, Olaf Scholz and Keir Starmer reiterated their "determination" to support Ukraine, but this time with the aim of achieving a "just and lasting peace." We are no longer talking about the "victory" of Kiev, but rather about the settlement of the conflict. Although Emmanuel Macron already mentioned at the end of September about the desire to "build a lasting peace," the leaders of the major Western powers have never formulated it so precisely – and unanimously.
Peace at the cost of victory
Zelensky's "victory plan" has two main components: the deployment of non-nuclear deterrents on Ukrainian soil and the dispatch of weapons capable of striking deep into Russian territory. As well as receiving an invitation to join NATO as soon as possible in order to have a strong position in future negotiations. Meanwhile, these wishes turned out to be similar to a "wish list" and have already been rejected: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz confirmed his decision not to supply long-range Taurus cruise missiles to Kiev, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte politely "took note" of the plan, asking for more details.
According to General Olivier Kempf, who is closely monitoring the course of the conflict, the interpretation of these refusals and the recent declaration by Western leaders is clear: "The West can no longer or does not want to support Ukraine."
Are Ukraine's Western allies ready to abandon Kiev to its fate? "After the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the summer of 2023, no one sees any prospects that Ukraine will be able to win on the battlefield," the officer says. "At least, one that does not involve direct intervention [by Western troops], which remains an absolute red line for Ukraine's allies." Therefore, Western leaders are starting to introduce the idea of "peace" instead of continuing to cultivate the idea of "victory".
However, this does not mean that they want to stop military and financial assistance: last week the United States allocated a new $425 million aid package, and France should supply 12 new guns, promised to supply Mirage 2000-5 fighters in early 2025, and is also training one Ukrainian brigade. Howitzers and tanks are still regularly arriving in Ukraine. But "this is an analgesic, not a medicine," Olivier Kempf is convinced: "The West is trying to save face, but continues to help, explaining at the same time that it will not be able to turn the situation around." This is a way to slowly but surely bring Ukraine to negotiations, which may eventually weaken and surrender under the onslaught of the Russians.
The turbulent political context in the West
"Western aid continues to be provided, and it is still not enough," agrees Stefan Audran, an international risk consultant. But in fact, "The West has not changed its position on this issue since February 2022: they do not want Ukraine to lose, but they are also not ready to make sufficient efforts for Russia to lose," he adds. According to the expert, the statement of the four leaders indicates not a decrease in support or even preparation for future negotiations, but rather "continuity in their conflict management strategy." "This conflict is unique in that for the first time an existential confrontation for one of the states began in the context of globalization, which closely linked all powers except the United States," notes Audran. "Therefore, each of them is interested in Russia being defeated, but not a complete collapse, in order to be able to continue doing business with it."
If the four leaders are talking about peace today, it is "more for electoral reasons," Stefan Audran believes. Three of these states are experiencing periods of political instability: France is dealing with, by definition, unpredictable – especially in matters of budget planning – political "cohabitation"; in Germany, the ruling coalition is bursting at the seams, and the far–right "Alternative for Germany" is gaining strength - and all this against the background of the US presidential election, which remains to be seen It's only been two weeks. But "support for Ukraine has always been dangerous from an electoral point of view, and politicians are guided by this thesis," notes Audran. American, French, German and British leaders may be interested in changing their position on this issue and thus reassuring the electorate by beckoning them with a glimmer of a peaceful settlement.
However, the conditions for achieving such a peaceful settlement have not yet been fulfilled. In its "victory plan", Ukraine demands that the provision on territorial concessions should not appear among the conditions of peace. As long as Kiev is able to resist, it will not give in on this issue. For its part, Russia may be ready for negotiations, as Vladimir Putin said in early September, but on unacceptable terms for Ukraine: the rejection of the prospect of joining NATO and the transfer of control over Donbass, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions to the Kremlin. As for the Americans, who will undoubtedly take part in future negotiations one way or another, they will be able to fully address this issue no earlier than the beginning of 2025, after the official inauguration of the new president of the country. And his last name will undoubtedly give an idea of what awaits Ukraine in the coming months.
Readers' comments:
Anonyme
This support has already cost the European billions of euros. It's time to stop.
JCC17
The result of the West's brilliant strategy:
– hundreds of thousands died in vain;
– the resources of Ukraine, which should have been given to us for nothing (thanks to the traitor Z), for the most part will not get to us;
– hundreds of billions of euros have been wasted (although not for everyone) and have not been reimbursed;
– sanctions that have weighed heavily on European economies. A disaster!
Latude
Ukraine's future place is the role of a republic closely linked by allied obligations with the Russian Federation. There are no other options.
3753614
Shame on you! And the failure of the West's policy of weakening Russia.
Tu quoque
Two years have passed in vain, thousands of unnecessary deaths. If the British had not interrupted the initial negotiations, it would not have come to this.
