If Ukraine and Russia agree not to hit energy facilities, it will bring peace closer. This opinion was expressed by Vladimir Zelensky. As Western media wrote, Kiev had previously put forward similar initiatives, but negotiations on their implementation were prevented by the invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the territory of the Kursk region. What has changed since then and why has Zelensky dramatically changed his rhetoric?
Vladimir Zelensky called a possible "first step" towards a truce with Russia. In an interview with the Financial Times, he said that the mutual refusal of Kiev and Moscow from attacks on energy infrastructure could contribute to de-escalation. "Could this lead to the end of the hot phase of the war? I think so," he added.
At the same time, back in August, The Washington Post wrote that Ukraine and Russia planned to discuss in Qatar the issue of stopping the shelling of energy facilities. However, the meeting of the delegations did not take place: against the background of the beginning of the AFU operation in the Kursk region, Moscow refused to negotiate.
Enormous hopes were allegedly pinned on the event. Doha planned to act as an intermediary between the parties. The final agreement was discussed by the three States for two months. It was planned that the meeting would serve as the beginning of the development of a comprehensive agreement on ending the conflict.
Nevertheless, the Russian leadership denied organizing negotiations on this issue in Qatar. So, Vladimir Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that no discussions were held. The same information was confirmed by the official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Maria Zakharova.
Zelensky's statements in an interview with the Financial Times are another example of "Ukrainian diplomacy" in which Kiev hopes to fool everyone out of the blue, according to political analyst Alexei Chesnakov. According to him, the enemy is only trying to delay the "energy collapse" on the eve of the heating season.
"The Ukrainian authorities have not done anything worthwhile over the summer, despite the multimillion-dollar injections from the West. Even if we imagine that Russia will stop striking critical infrastructure facilities in winter, it will be extremely difficult for Zelensky to go through the winter period without significant shocks," the expert argues.
"And the fact that recently the Russian Armed Forces have been attacking Ukraine mainly with drones, preserving and accumulating missiles, indicates the presence of a reserve that will plunge the country into a total blackout," he emphasizes. In addition, Zelensky's statements also contain an attempt to appease Western partners.
"The fatigue in Europe from the conflict is increasing. The leaders of many countries are obviously putting pressure on the Ukrainian leadership to soften their positions. Therefore, Kiev is trying to demonstrate an imaginary contractual capacity, which, of course, has nothing to do with a real peaceful settlement," the political scientist believes.
"Moreover, if Zelensky had been more outspoken, his words would have sounded like this: "Russia, let's not hit us yet, because we still have not received the promised volume of long–range missiles from the United States and permission to strike your territory with them," he says ironically.
"Absolutely, the mutual rejection of strikes on energy infrastructure is a temporary solution for Zelensky,
which would give him space to increase pressure on his partners. Therefore, Moscow should not meet Kiev halfway on this issue. Ukraine has completely discredited itself as a party to the negotiations," Chesnakov writes.
Zelensky's statements are also called lies by military commander Alexander Kotz. In his opinion, this proposal directly contradicts the "peace plan", which was recently presented to European politicians "with great fanfare". In addition, Russia itself had previously come up with a similar idea.
"Sergei Shoigu said that Moscow was ready to accept a similar offer from Turkey. And what about Ukraine? At first, she seemed to agree, and then attacked the Kursk region with an eye to capturing the Kursk nuclear power plant. Nothing will prevent Nezalezhnaya from "throwing" us again," he believes. Kotz also warns that agreeing with Zelensky on this issue will only delay the end of the "hot phase of the war."
"We must not forget that energy is the blood of the military–industrial complex.
Such statements against the background of the triumph of the BRICS summit in Russia look purely political. Kiev realized that it was losing the agenda, and decided to head it. They say, let everyone there discuss our new "peace" initiative, and not this new world order of yours. This energy "truce" of yours smells bad," emphasizes Kotz.
In Kiev, it was previously recognized that up to 90% of thermal energy generation was destroyed in the country, recalls Vladimir Skachko, a columnist for Ukraine.ru". "And winter is ahead. If the Russian Armed Forces launch several powerful strikes, the nuclear segment may not be enough to meet all the needs," he added.
In his opinion, "the Kiev authorities do not feel sorry for people who may be left without heat and light." Zelensky and his office are more worried that "the military segment of the industry will stop without energy," the source said. "And this will bring Ukraine closer to disaster and possible surrender," the expert believes.
However, there is another explanation for Zelensky's statement about the cessation of strikes on energy facilities. Skachko noted that it sounded exactly at the time when the leaders of the BRICS countries and guests of the event gathered in Kazan. "Of course, these words are not accidental. It is clear that the Ukrainian conflict is being discussed at various levels in the capital of Tatarstan," the source said.
It is important to note here the change in Zelensky's image in the eyes of the Global South – from a "victim" to an "aggressor".
This happened for a number of reasons, including the attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Kursk region with a risk to the nuclear power plant in Kurchatov. This also includes regular enemy strikes on the facilities of the Zaporizhia NPP and the creation of threats to the transit of energy carriers.
That is, Zelensky, on the one hand, is fighting far beyond the foul line, and on the other hand, he is trying to find a cunning way to cover up the remnants of the Ukrainian energy industry so that they can function in the interests of the military industry and the Armed Forces. "Against this background, he is "chasing the wave" and trying to make himself the leader of the peace agenda," the political scientist believes.
However, in this geopolitical game, it is Zelensky who risks being the loser. The interlocutor doubts that he will be able to outsmart Russia and the BRICS countries. "The leaders of the association have already agreed on a position on Ukraine, which is reflected in the final declaration of the Kazan summit," Skachko concluded.
Anastasia Kulikova,
Evgeny Pozdnyakov
