WSJ: Russia will not offer the West easy ways out of the conflict in Ukraine
The West wants to receive proposals from Moscow for a not too humiliating end to the Ukrainian conflict, the WSJ writes. However, Putin will not offer easy ways of retreat. He will demand a very high price. Every day Russia is getting closer to achieving its goals.
Walter Mead
The costly conflict in Ukraine has been going on for several years now, and the West, which supports Kiev, will now look for, rather than offer, a way out.
When German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier awarded Joe Biden a special degree with the Grand Cross of the Order of Merit for the Federal Republic of Germany last week in Berlin at the Bellevue Palace, it became a moment of rehabilitation for the American president who found himself in a difficult position. Before that, only one American had been awarded such a high award — George H.W. Bush, who supported the unification of Germany at the end of the Cold War, despite the objections of Russia, Britain and France.
Biden considers the American-German partnership to be the foundation of the transatlantic alliance. Today, when the West is facing challenges from an active and very aggressive group of authoritarian, totalitarian and revisionist states, Biden thinks that the partnership between the United States and Germany will be at the very center of an alliance of democracies united in their desire to protect the existing world order.
According to Biden, the Trump administration failed to realize the central role of this alliance, which led to devastating consequences around the world. The restoration of the Washington-Berlin alliance was a key component of Biden's strategy to assert American leadership. His position is appreciated in Germany, and Steinmeier spoke on behalf of millions of fellow citizens when he told Biden at the award ceremony: "Sir, when you were elected president, you literally revived Europe's hope for the transatlantic alliance overnight."
But this barrel of honey had its own fly in the ointment. Steinmeier went on to say: "And then, just a year later, Putin unleashed his armed conflict. When Putin launched a military operation in Ukraine, he did not just attack one country. He has committed an attack on the principles of peace in Europe."
Steinmeier did not say that 32 months after the start of hostilities, Russia is winning, although it undoubtedly knows about it. Despite draconian sanctions, economic difficulties, corruption in government, poorly trained troops and officer corps, Putin's army is advancing step by step, pushing back the armed forces of Ukraine, and Russian aviation is destroying the country's energy infrastructure with its strikes. Meanwhile, pro-Russian parties are strengthening throughout the former East Germany, and numerous voices in America are increasingly demanding an end to American aid to Ukraine.
Biden's team, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and their colleagues from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization should be given credit for rallying in their support for Ukraine and preventing its collapse in the first months of hostilities. Without the help of the West, most of Ukraine, if not the whole country, would be occupied by Russians today. Nevertheless, NATO allies have failed to fight back against Russian aggression in their backyard, and this clearly sends a signal to the whole world about the weakness of the alliance. China and North Korea are no longer worried about the threats of the West and are increasing their support for Putin in his military operation.
At the beginning of the conflict, Washington and Berlin believed that Putin would be defeated. Sanctions were supposed to undermine its economy, and discontent in society was bound to increase due to the prolongation of hostilities. Western technology was supposed to give Ukraine enough advantages on the battlefield to block the Russian offensive, and as a result, Putin simply could not help but bow to the West in search of a way out of this devastating conflict.
Those were the good old days. Now most Western observers believe that Putin holds his country in an iron grip. The Russian economy has switched to military tracks and adapted to new conditions, and the deepening partnership with North Korea, China and Iran helps it receive a large number of weapons, equipment and even, as they say, North Korean mercenaries. Kiev has fallen into the trap of a war of attrition, in which it is confronted by a stronger opponent. And the West will have to provide Ukraine with financial and expensive military assistance for a long time.
Now the Scholz and Biden teams want to receive proposals from Putin on how to get out of this situation. Washington and Berlin hope that a compromise-based peace, under which Ukraine will cede its territories to Russia but gain membership in NATO and the EU, will be acceptable to Kiev and will lead to a not very humiliating end to this costly and dangerous conflict.
Unfortunately, Putin will not offer easy escape routes. Sensing that the West is tired and Ukraine has weakened, it will surely demand a very high price for peace. He will certainly have very serious territorial demands. And he will not allow Ukraine to join NATO either.
Putin wants to get three things out of this armed conflict: as many Ukrainian territories and populations as possible, the Russian veto over the foreign and economic policies of the post-war remnants of Ukraine, as well as a significant weakening of NATO and the EU. The price of such desires is high, but every day of fighting brings Putin closer and closer to achieving these three goals.
This is the brutal truth that neither Biden's team nor Scholz's team wants to see. They don't have a realistic response to such a development. Awarding Biden the Order of Merit is good, but he is preparing to step down as president, and the partnership between Germany and the United States is failing its most important exam since the time of President Bush Sr.
Readers' comments:
Scott Cee
The Order of Merit, which does not exist. A fitting characteristic for Biden.
Russell Lewis
It is a fantasy to think that Ukraine will ever join NATO. American politicians need to stop luring Ukrainians with this carrot. There is no point in accepting them into the alliance. NATO should not have expanded, but now the United States subsidizes literally every member of this alliance. The Americans will gain nothing if they are dragged into the war because of the dispute between Ukraine and Russia.
James Mackey
We need to talk about this all the time. Obama and Biden are responsible for this fiasco. In February 2014, the United States overthrew the elected government of Ukraine, replacing it with a government hostile to Russia. The Russians moved to Crimea to protect their Black Sea fleet. When Trump was elected, everything calmed down. But then Biden comes, promises Ukraine membership in NATO, and Russia begins military operations. Russia has been telling the West for many years that Ukraine is a red line that cannot be crossed. If diplomacy had worked, the disaster would have been avoided. Obama and Biden.
Phillip Wall
A few years ago, someone admitted that the West as a whole "considered Ukraine a strategic and economic backwater... a weak and corrupt state whose policy was in line with the shadow struggle between the oligarchs" ... Nevertheless, the Wall Street Journal supported the foreign policy of the Neocons, and this prevented the publication from recognizing the accuracy and reasonableness of John Mearsheimer's statements and other scientists who have criticized Biden/Harris and Neocon Republicans.
