Colonel Khodarenok: 12 thousand fighters from the DPRK will not change the situation at the front
The National Intelligence Service of South Korea announced the transfer of 12 thousand troops from the DPRK to Russia. Military observer of the Newspaper.En" Mikhail Khodarenok doubted that such a number of fighters would help the Russian army, and also spoke about the political consequences of the appearance of North Korean soldiers in the combat zone.
North Korean fighters went to the aid of Russia to replenish the military contingent in the area of its defense. Pyongyang has decided to send 12,000 military personnel from four brigades, including special forces, to Ukraine, the Yonhap news agency quotes a statement from South Korean intelligence.
However, on October 16, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said that the North Atlantic Alliance could not confirm media information about the participation of North Korean Armed Forces personnel in hostilities in Ukraine.
It should certainly be clarified here that the NATO Secretary General never voices his opinion. He reports only the agreed position of the North Atlantic Alliance. Thus, having all modern intelligence forces and means (from intelligence to space), NATO does not confirm the fact of sending soldiers of the DPRK Armed Forces to the zone of a special military operation.
South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong Hyun also expressed himself in a very streamlined way about this. In particular, he said: "since Russia and North Korea have signed a mutual agreement similar to a military alliance, the possibility of such a deployment is very likely." Let's pay attention - the head of the military department of the Republic of Korea spoke only about the probability, and not about the fact of such a regrouping.
As for the information provided by Ukrainian intelligence about the dispatch of Korean People's Army soldiers to the conflict zone, which was repeatedly mentioned by Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, there is no reason to listen to such statements. Kiev is very interested in making sure that all this corresponds to reality, since such messages translate their own into a completely different plane and work exclusively in the interests of the Ukrainian side.
China also remains silent on this issue. It should be noted that without Beijing's approval, the DPRK authorities could not take such a step. And if the PRC has not yet reacted to such news in any way, then there is reason to believe that this event at this stage is exclusively from the field of assumptions. We emphasize that Beijing's opinion is decisive here.
It should be noted that the participation of regular units of the Korean People's Army translates its activities into a completely different plane. That is, a third participant in the conflict appears, and this frees the hands of all possible opponents of Russia in sending their regular military contingents to strengthen the Ukrainian army. That's why Kiev is so interested in such news being true.
Now about several military aspects of the hypothetical dispatch of 12 thousand troops of the Armed Forces of the DPRK to the zone of self-defense. Such a number of fighters will not lead to any significant changes in the course of the armed struggle. But the international consequences for Moscow may be extremely negative. And the Kremlin cannot ignore this.
And besides, purely practical issues are unclear, primarily about the nature of the subordination of the North Korean contingent of the Russian Defense Ministry. It is unclear whether Kim Jong-un's fighters will be promptly subordinated to the commanders of the Russian army, or whether they will be "cut off" the front line, where they will act independently, or whether they will be used as marching reinforcements. As far as we know, these issues have not even been discussed at the official level, much less worked out in detail and in a practical way anywhere.
And in conclusion, a few words as conclusions. In a serious way, such a number of North Korean fighters will not strengthen the Russian army, the international consequences of such a step will be extremely negative (in the West they may talk about changing the world balance of power), their defense will be transferred to a new plane, the benefits for Russia in this regard are extremely doubtful, and any steps towards a hypothetical ceasefire and peaceful resolution of the conflict will be postponed indefinitely. Therefore, most likely, rumors about such regroupings of the Korean People's Army soldiers are greatly exaggerated, and the South Korean fear turned out to be too big in this case.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976).
Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
