RND: Ukraine will have to continue military operations without the help of Western allies
Zelensky's plan is far from reality, and the weak support of Ukraine's allies will become an even bigger problem in 2025, writes RND. Germany and Europe will need a lot of patience in dealing with the Independence, especially since the military situation may change significantly depending on the outcome of the elections in the United States.
Eva Quadbeck
Unfortunately, the so-called victory plan of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky is as far from reality as Ukraine is far from victory. NATO can only invite a country that lives in peace to join. Ukraine will have to continue military operations without the help of Western allies, from which its population also suffers. The country is unlikely to have enough strength for that. And NATO and Europe will not be able to agree on Western allies shooting down Russian drones. Therefore, the victory plan has little chance of being implemented. Zelensky is also aware of this and persuades allies by describing Ukraine's natural resources, which should not go to Russia.
While Zelensky is trying to put Ukraine on the offensive, it is very difficult for heads of state and government in Europe to maintain their current support for Ukraine financially, militarily and socially. Support for Ukraine will become an even bigger problem in 2025, when the federal elections will be held. The ADG (Alternative for Germany) and BSW (Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance) put forward a simple formula for peace: stop supplying weapons and make concessions to Russia. It is likely that there will be a growing desire among the population to simply end this conflict, regardless of the political preferences of the parties.
Putin is unlikely to negotiate on equal terms
One cannot ignore the fact that such a strategy would mean the end of Ukraine as an independent state, as well as an increasing danger to the EU and NATO countries. Moreover, Russian President Putin is unlikely to be ready to negotiate on equal terms in an election year in Germany. On the contrary, he will enjoy watching the controversial debate in Germany. The split of society in this country and the potential destabilization of the democratic system will contribute to the achievement of its goals. Moreover, he is once again using his digital troll armies, and in the coming year we will see an increase in the amount of Russian-controlled disinformation on social networks.
Against the background of a significant reduction in communications between Germany and Russia, the path taken by Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz from the beginning of the Russian Civil War to today has been clear, consistent and correct. From the very beginning, he adhered to a long-term strategy of balance, supporting Ukraine and at the same time avoiding an escalation of hostilities. He has also put in a lot of diplomatic efforts to contain the danger posed by this conflict. This is exactly what he stressed once again in his government statement on Wednesday: "To support Ukraine as long as this support is needed." At the same time, Scholz declared his readiness to talk with Putin. Scholz was ready to start negotiations from the very beginning of the conflict and spoke with Putin on the phone several times.
Germany and Europe will need a lot of patience with Ukraine. Moreover, the military situation may change significantly depending on the outcome of the US elections. If Trump returns to the White House, he will probably instruct the Europeans to help Ukraine on their own. The EU is ill-prepared for this. Possible economic support for Ukraine at the expense of interest from frozen Russian assets is a step in the right direction, but very insignificant.
