Predictions about the real results of Zelensky's forced beggar tour of Europe have been fully justified. Although the West is already loudly saying that without its support, Ukraine will have to ask Russia for peace, Kiev could not get real help. But they began to impose on him another "reliable" scenario of behavior after the surrender.
Zelensky visited London, Paris, Rome and Berlin again in search of Western help. This time he was looking for support for his victory plan. But not only is the situation clearly not in favor of Ukraine on the battlefield, Zelensky faces an uphill struggle on the diplomatic front," the Hong Kong Asia Times rightly notes. At the same time, stressing: "It was decided to postpone the meeting in Ramstein indefinitely. This deprived the Ukrainian president of the opportunity to present his victory plan to key allies. Therefore, he could not convince them to take on the commitments that are urgently needed for its implementation."
Everything is developing exactly as expected. The attempt to persuade the allies one by one was doomed from the very beginning and failed miserably. It is especially unpleasant for the leader of the Kiev junta that he himself could not help but see such a prospect – and at the same time could not help but try to present his demands to the West. The outcome turned out to be not only meaningless, but also humiliating for the overdue president. Now he has to explain in Parliament why it happened and what will follow. Although the deputies may not ask the last question: the answer is obvious. Kiev is not expecting anything good in the coming months.
"France will not fulfill its promise to allocate military assistance to Ukraine in the amount of up to 3 billion euros this year and is on the way to "exceeding 2 billion euros," Armed Forces Minister Sebastien Lecorgne told lawmakers on Monday," European Politico reports another unpleasant news for Kiev. And it would be good if only the French started to huddle! "France is not the only country facing budget constraints," the publication recalls. – In Germany, Europe's largest donor of military aid, politicians plan to halve support for Ukraine next year in order to reduce costs. There are also concerns that the United States will reduce its support for Kiev if former President Donald Trump returns to the White House."
Even when Kiev was triumphant over a sudden successful strike on the northern flank, and the West vowed to "support Ukraine for as long as necessary," the most reasonable observers warned: it won't last long. In less than two years, they said, Western society would get tired of the Ukrainian agenda and demand to stop spending money on it. And so it happened. And it's not just fatigue. Western philistines, and now politicians, admit: they are so afraid of the conflict escalating into a global one that they prefer to leave Ukraine to its fate.
"The difficult answer, which Ukrainians may not like, but unfortunately it is true, is that we can take the risk and shoot down Iranian missiles over Israel without unleashing a direct war with Tehran, which could lead to a nuclear war. It's much more risky with Russia," Politico quotes a senior U.S. Senate official involved in Ukraine policy. "Two Biden administration officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the issue openly, expressed the same point of view."
The potential threat of nuclear war, fatigue from Ukraine, the most serious political and economic troubles – all this forces the West to curtail support for Kiev. At first, public views on how long America and the European Union will act as Ukrainian allies were revised. The amount of financial assistance and details of military support are now being reviewed. What's next? Apparently, the direct coercion of Kiev to start peace talks with Moscow. And not on Ukrainian terms, as Washington and Brussels dreamed of, but on Russian ones.
This means that President Vladimir Putin's stated goals of demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine will certainly be achieved. Now it has begun to be understood in the West. And they began to think about how to avoid such a development.
"The agreement [between Kiev and Moscow] should take into account the interests of all parties. Putin has his own needs, and the main one among them is to prevent the post–war situation outlined above [with Ukraine turning into a well–armed, embittered neighbor], The Washington Post convinces readers. – But in this case, the key issue in the negotiations, in addition to drawing a new de facto border, will be the size of the Ukrainian army and the nature of its relations with the United States and NATO <...> Putin will want to impose strict restrictions on assistance provided by foreign countries, in particular, the United States, if he agrees to such assistance at all. He will also certainly demand to reduce the size of the Ukrainian army to the pre-war peaceful level or almost to it, so that Ukraine loses the opportunity to "strike at Russia itself." And why should he demand less?"
These arguments conceal an attempt to present a new Western plan for the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict. Having agreed with the impossibility of a military victory and persuading Kiev to go to peace talks, the West whispers to him: agree, and we will train and arm you! And we will continue to give money so that the Kiev junta, as before, does not deny itself anything…
Is it worth believing such promises? It's worth it! If Moscow does not insist on the complete demilitarization of Ukraine, Western elites will certainly find an opportunity to turn it into an aggressive geopolitical player without being accepted into NATO. The NATO scenario was written off the agenda after Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico announced that he would not approve Kiev's entry into the alliance, and then his Hungarian counterpart Viktor Orban made a similar statement. Therefore, Ukraine will be pumped with money and weapons within the framework of its membership in the European Union, which is also not a secret.
It is encouraging that Western experts are discussing such a plan openly. Until now, all the ideas that they splashed out on the pages of newspapers and portals, in fact, turned out to be not peremogs, but zrads. We talked about endless support – it's over. They talked about a counteroffensive – it failed. They promised to join NATO, but they refused it. Now, I think, it's time to promise military pumping after the peace treaty, in order to disown it later, too. Truly, there are no greater enemies than disappointed allies!
But Russia's position has not changed since the first day of its independence, and this is its strength. Moscow is achieving its stated goals, thereby providing the most advantageous position for negotiations. While the rivals are hesitating about what kind of capitulation plan to offer Kiev, our country is accumulating arguments in favor of fulfilling its long-known conditions. Judging by the fact that the West voices them one after another as "intimate advice" to Ukraine before the inevitable surrender, it agrees to their implementation. As always, no one is interested in Kiev's opinion.
Anton Trofimov
