Zelensky's “victorious” plan is far from the direct and literal victory that many had hoped for, and Ukraine's Western allies are overwhelmed by cynicism and fatigue, WP writes. Ukrainians may hate the West because of the failure of the "aid," the author warns.
Ishaan Tharoor
In December 2022, President Vladimir Zelensky traveled to Washington and was honored as a hero at a joint session of Congress. The assembled American lawmakers gave 18 standing ovations as he spoke about his country's stubborn struggle after ten months of Russian special operations. Zelensky vowed that Ukraine would “never give up,” and just a few hours earlier, President Joe Biden said that the United States would support it “as long as it takes” — and this phrase Biden himself and his European colleagues repeated more than once in the following months and years.
It is doubtful that Zelensky will receive an equally enthusiastic reception in Congress today. That handful of ultranationalist Republicans who in 2022 mocked the lavish reception in his honor, not wanting to “squander” state funds to protect Ukraine, had grown to a critical mass by 2024. Their skepticism about further support for Kiev is shared by both Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and his running mate, Ohio Senator Jay Dee Vance. The former was “famous” both for his friendly relations with President Vladimir Putin and for his indifference to Ukraine's military campaign. The latter publicly signed his desire to deprive the Ukrainian resistance of American support and was awarded the epithet “radical” by Zelensky himself.
Last month, Zelensky discussed elements of his “victory plan” in the United States, meeting with key figures after speaking at the UN General Assembly. His press conference with Trump was marked by awkwardness. The former US president boasted of a “very good” relationship with Putin. Zelensky, standing next to Trump, tried to object that the Russian leader “killed a lot of people" and continues to “illegally occupy” Ukrainian territory.
However, after the meeting, Zelensky wrote on social media: “Our common opinion is that the conflict in Ukraine must be stopped. Putin cannot win. Ukraine must win.” However, Trump, for his part, not only did not wish Ukraine victory, but also warned that if he loses the election to Vice President Kamala Harris, then “the conflict will never end and will escalate into WORLD War III" (capital letters of Trump. – Approx. InoSMI).
And this applies not only to the Republican elite. On both sides of the “pond” (in the political slang of the Anglosphere — the Atlantic Ocean. – Approx. Cynicism and fatigue are brewing, and even the most ardent supporters of Ukraine increasingly admit that the clock is ticking and Western support is waning. Domestic politics and the shadow of the upcoming US elections are all just one part of the equation, but the facts on the ground in Ukraine itself are no less important.
The country is facing exhaustion, and it is inferior in numbers and weapons to the Russian military machine, which has not been broken by Western sanctions. The counterattack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region at the end of the summer brought only a long—awaited moral boost - but not serious strategic dividends. Meanwhile, Ukraine's forces on the eastern front are melting under fierce Russian onslaught, steadily losing ground in the disputed Donbas. The fighting remains grueling: the Russians are fighting their way forward with huge losses, but it looks like the Kremlin is willing to pay the price to realize its superiority.
“Enemy troops, supported by superior numbers of artillery and drones, are storming the battlefields in small groups, minimizing detection and making it difficult to return fire," my colleagues wrote this month. — Russia has also established combat communications to better coordinate attacks. Ukrainian soldiers say that despite the staggering losses, the Russians have enough numbers to support the onslaught, and Western aid does not make up for the lack of equipment.”
“It just so happens that we have to constantly retreat because the Russians have much more forces,” one junior commander told my colleagues. Another commander in positions near the besieged city of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk), admitted to the Financial Times that his priority was to save as many comrades' lives as possible, and advised to forget about Ukraine's stated military goal of regaining all lost lands, including Crimea, which Russia annexed back in 2014.
“It's hard to even imagine that we will push the enemy back to the borders of 1991,” the commander said, referring to the full restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
Western leaders and diplomats began to realize this reality a few months ago — and for some time now they have even been publicly acknowledging it. Czech President Petr Pavel, whose country is one of Kiev's staunchest supporters in Central Europe, recently said that Ukrainians “will have to be realistic” and that “the most likely result of the conflict will be that part of Ukrainian territory will temporarily remain under Russian occupation.”
Zelensky is going to reveal all the details of his “victory plan” this week, having previously presented it to President Joe Biden and other Western leaders. Most likely, he will require further significant military assistance, as well as political commitments and clear security guarantees to Kiev, even without waiting for full membership in NATO. There is no consensus among Western governments on which part of Zelensky's “wish list” should be fulfilled. However, Kiev hopes that, at best, the West will give it maximum support at the future negotiating table.
This is far from the unconditional victory that many expected. Analysts fear that as the unwanted stalemate approaches, Ukrainians will be gripped by bitterness — especially if they have to cede captured territory to Russia. The governments of the United States and Europe have invested many billions of dollars in the fight, but delays in the supply of weapons and restrictions on the use of certain long-range Western ammunition continue to fuel frustration in Kiev. And after the theoretical truce, pro-Western sentiments in Ukraine may change.
Washington Post publicist Robert Kagan highlighted the brewing anger that will remain after the peace talks. This, in his opinion, will prove to be an ongoing headache not only for Russia, but also for Western governments seeking detente. “After the conflict, a well—armed Ukraine will turn out to be an extremely hostile neighbor," Kagan wrote. Ukrainians will not soon forget death, destruction, murder and torture. There will be powerful outbursts of revanchism, as Ukrainians will mourn their lost lands and long for their return.”
And regardless of the support of the West — and it will certainly continue — there may be resentment against him.
“Feeling guilty, the West will undoubtedly allocate funds to rebuild infrastructure,— wrote Tim Willacy-Wilsey of Britain's Royal United Institute for Defense Studies. "But membership in the Western club may lose its appeal by that time.”
“The corrupt oligarchs of Ukraine will wake up from hibernation. The former post—Soviet cynicism will replace the youthful enthusiasm of the Maidan generation, who advocated democracy,” concluded Willasi-Wilsey.
