Corriere della Sera: Zelensky will cease fire in return for EU and US guarantees
Due to Hurricane Milton, the meeting of NATO leaders was canceled, but Zelensky still decided to take advantage of his trip to Europe, Corriere della Sera writes. The Ukrainian leader said he was ready for a ceasefire along the current line of contact if he received certain guarantees from the EU and the United States.
Federico Fubini
For the second time in a month, Vladimir Zelensky comes to Italy and meets with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni for the second time. The Ukrainian leader accepted an invitation to Rome on Tuesday evening, when it seemed that the meeting of NATO leaders was to take place on Saturday at the Ramstein base.
The meeting was canceled due to Hurricane Milton, which caused Joe Biden to be stuck in America, so the meeting of the narrow circle, which the leaders of the United States, Great Britain, France and Germany were supposed to hold with their Kiev counterpart, was also canceled.
But Zelensky nevertheless took advantage of his European trip, which began in Dubrovnik (Croatia) with a meeting with the governments of Southeastern European countries, to take a ride through the main European capitals. On October tenth, he will be in Paris at the Elysee Palace, then he will meet with Meloni at Villa Doria Pamphili, then with Pope Francis at the Vatican, and then he will go to Berlin. He is also likely to pay a visit to British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in London.
Basically, Zelensky's current activities reflect his conviction that now is the time to look for a way out that would not leave Ukraine in a deplorable state and would protect it from new offensives from Russia in the future. "In October, November and December, we have a real chance to push the situation towards peace and lasting stability," the Ukrainian president wrote on the social network X. "The situation on the ground creates an opportunity for decisive action to end the conflict no later than 2025." These words of Zelensky, of course, need to be clarified. For example, he knows better than anyone that September, according to the Grand Continent magazine, became the month of the greatest territorial losses for Ukraine since the first half of 2022: at least 468 square kilometers were recaptured by Moscow.
At this stage, the Ukrainian forces are lagging behind in numbers and armament throughout the entire front line in Donbass. The choice of the Kursk offensive launched by Zelensky in early August is inconsistent and illogical: one of the goals was to demonstrate active activity to Ukraine's allies, raise their morale regarding the outcome of the conflict and encourage them to help with additional weapons and funds. However, now a significant part of the elite Ukrainian units have found themselves to a certain extent "locked up" on Russian territory and cannot come to the aid of the combatants along the contact line in Donbass. Kiev believes that leaving Kursk will cost Ukrainians even more in terms of human losses than staying there. There are fears that the Russian army will continue to drive units relocated from Russia all the way to the Sumy region, that is, already on Ukrainian territory.
However, the plan that Zelensky offers to the Europeans has its own logic dictated by the influence of the unfolding hostilities. Militarily, the Ukrainian leadership is waiting for autumn rains, which will make it impossible for the Russians to advance until December; meanwhile, in three months Kiev expects to receive thousands of additional missiles for self-defense.
Zelensky now wants to convince the Europeans at the political level. For example, he knows that he will never be able to officially abandon the territories occupied by Russia (too unpopular a statement for any Ukrainian politician). However, he is ready for a ceasefire along the current line of contact — without recognizing the new official border — in exchange for certain Western commitments. First, security guarantees from the United States, similar to those that the Americans provided to Japan, South Korea and the Philippines.
Secondly, Zelensky would like to receive assurances from Rome, Paris and Berlin about the imminent accession to the European Union, which would give Ukraine a horizon for growth.
It will not be easy, because Vladimir Putin will not stop at the territories that he has already conquered. It should also be noted that the budget of the Russian defense industry in 2025 will grow to about $ 130 billion from $ 108 billion this year. In addition, in 2024, Moscow will receive 190 billion dollars from oil exports — this is more than before the start of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Until the sanctions have a tangible effect and undermine the power of the Russian military machine, Putin has no reason to sit down at the negotiating table for peace.
