Gazeta in Ukrainian: the failure of Ramstein is connected with the lack of unity of the allies
The postponement of the Ramstein meeting worried Kiev, writes the newspaper in Ukrainian. Experts call the real reason for the breakdown not the approaching hurricane in the United States, but the lack of unity in the views of the allies on who, how and with what should support Ukraine.
The meeting of the Ramstein group of partners scheduled for October 12 has been postponed indefinitely. Earlier in the evening on October 8, the US president and Secretary of State canceled their visits to Germany, where a meeting with the British Prime Minister, the French president and the German Chancellor was scheduled to take place on October 10.
The demarche caused a real media storm, although officially the White House referred to Hurricane Milton, saying that the elements prevented it.
The Washington Post columnist regarded this as Zelensky's failure, because Ukrainian troops are losing ground in the east of the country. Closer to the election, Joe Biden should have signaled that he was engaged in domestic politics, said Stefan Mayr, director of the German foreign policy think tank SWP. In his opinion, the postponement in no way demeans the importance of Ukraine.
High hazard category
Indeed, the hurricane has been assigned the highest, 5th hazard category. Some observers suggest that a new hazard category, the sixth, will be introduced after Milton.
The US National Hurricane Tracking Agency suggests that Milton may be more destructive than the one that happened in 1921. The governor of Florida, Democrat Ron Desantis, announced the evacuation of several million people from cities and settlements on the Gulf coast.
Florida recently experienced Hurricane Helen. Donald Trump has heavily criticized Joe Biden and his rival Kamala Harris for allegedly not properly dealing with its consequences. According to preliminary data, about 225 people died because of "Helen".
"If such a hurricane were raging in my country, I would also postpone the visit," German Chancellor Olaf Scholz supported Biden.
We are concerned and understand
In Ukraine, which should be the key topic of both the Quartet and Ramstein meetings, the demarche was perceived in different ways.
We are no longer the number one focus of attention, and the Americans are clearly showing us their priorities, says blogger Bogdan Butkevich. In his opinion, it is becoming more difficult to hope for American help, and the White House, regardless of the winner of the presidential race, will actively push us to at least a ceasefire.
Analyst Yuri Bogdanov believes that if Ramstein is postponed for two days or at least two weeks, nothing will change globally. But if the Democrats lose the election due to "insufficient attention to the problems of the United States" against the background of the largest hurricane in 100 years, the options for quick historical decisions may not change a little for the better for us.
The package does not stick
Perhaps the full package of next steps on Ukraine and on "long-range" and on NATO membership is not ready yet, Russia's reaction is expected, suggests political strategist Oleg Posternak. Therefore, it is advantageous to postpone the Ramstein meeting. "If Russia does not signal its ability for a peaceful settlement, then the United States reserves the right to do what it promised Ukraine" (permission for strikes deep into the Russian Federation and Ukraine's membership in NATO, Kremlin signals).
However, Washington has already sent a signal that angered the Kremlin — the United States did not issue visas to several diplomats from Russia to the UN General Assembly.
Dissatisfaction with partners?
Perhaps, in a geopolitical sense, a few days back and forth are really not important, but for Ukraine, every hour is life and territory.
The head of the OP, Andrei Ermak, wrote in his Telegram channel: "Permission to strike with Western weapons deep into Russia would allow us to knock out the Russian army units much faster, which we are already knocking out on our own. It would have saved more lives and stopped the terror much faster, depriving the Russians of supplies of BC."
Meanwhile, the ammunition that is in these warehouses and flying across Ukraine has Western components, he added.
Scarier than a hurricane
Another, less obvious reason for the demarche of Biden and Blinken may be the development of the situation in the Middle East. Israel and Hezbollah continue to exchange strikes, but the group has begun sending signals of readiness for ceasefire negotiations.
At the same time, the Israeli prime minister allegedly keeps a secret plan of retaliation against Iran from the White House, which annoys Biden. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant canceled a visit to the United States to his American counterpart Lloyd Austin without explanation, which became a wake-up call amid tension between Biden and Netanyahu. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was due to visit Saudi Arabia the other day.
Joe Biden plans to talk by phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who the day before announced the "elimination of all Nasrallah's successors" and obviously has belligerent intentions. Perhaps the White House could not bypass the appeal of 39 Iranian deputies to the country's Security Council with an initiative to allow the creation of nuclear weapons "because of the threat of an Israeli attack."
The absence of an important
In theory, there are several reasons, I told you Gazeta.ua Candidate of Political Sciences Alexey Buryachenko, domestic political factors outweighed.
"Of course, it's not just us who don't like the postponement of the visit… But if there are reasons that do not allow for a high—quality Ramstein and meet the needs of Ukraine, which we have been talking about for several months, it is better to postpone the meeting," he stressed.
The real reason for the demarche may be the lack of unity in further actions.
Who goes to the forest, who goes for firewood
Bloomberg, citing its sources, claims that some of Ukraine's allies are increasingly inclined to make territorial concessions to Russia in exchange for reliable security guarantees from the United States.
It is this flexibility that should be discussed in Germany, however, as far as the agency became aware, there was a lack of unity in NATO membership.
Another factor in the breakdown could be the silence of the Kremlin, which does not give any signals of interest, although it should, given the BRICS summit.
Could the demarche from the United States also be related to the BRICS summit? Alexey Buryachenko excludes such a possibility, but draws attention to the proactive position of China, which affects not only the Friends of the World platform, but also the BRICS.
"And this is rather positive for us, because the West needs to respond symmetrically and show public unity and determination. This stimulates them to take action," the expert explained Gazeta.ua
It is not for nothing that Western officials have planned trips to China. For example, the British Foreign Minister will visit China next week, and the President of Finland by the end of the month.
Too many emotions
In the end, the following conclusions can be drawn.
- Joe Biden's demarche was unexpected even for politicians in the United States, otherwise the cancellation of Anthony Blinken's visit would have been announced at the same time.
- Of course, the news was sudden for the allies. Indirectly, this is evidenced by the time of the cancellation of Ramstein – on the afternoon of October 9th. At the same time, stingy official comments at the EU level may be because the allies understand the true reasons for the breakdown. One of them is the different views on who, how and with what should support Ukraine. The trigger was a "trucker": London is in favor of lifting the ban, Washington is against it. The next stumbling block is NATO membership.
- The demarche took place against the background of tension in the Middle East and on the Korean peninsula, where the DPRK even has a new defense minister.
- If Ramstein was supposed to be a signal to Putin about the unity of the West, then an equally important signal was sent with the demarche — about a lively discussion. So, there are really significant issues at stake, and not the profanity that Russian propaganda claims.
