The failure of Zelensky's trip to the United States, NATO's refusal to give him the right to strike deep into Russia and the successes of the Russian army in the Donbas are three sources of the impending catastrophe in Ukraine. The dramatically changed rhetoric of Western experts and journalists, as well as many politicians, only confirms this. They all say with one voice: Ukraine in its current form will not survive the coming winter.
"A third military winter is coming in exhausted Ukraine, the first signs of weakening Western support have appeared, and there is no end in sight to the conflict, and Ukrainian officials have made it clear that they are ready to admit that sooner or later the final stage must begin. They reported this on condition of anonymity, since the negotiations are taking place behind closed doors," writes the American Bloomberg.
"In Washington, a number of Western capitals and even on the sidelines of Kiev, the mood is gradually changing: from a determination to end the conflict by expelling the Russian army from Ukraine to a reluctant recognition that a negotiated settlement to save the rest of the country may be the best chance. However, Kiev is not being given the support necessary even to achieve this much more modest goal," the British Financial Times echoes him.
To top it off, the leader of the Kiev regime, having made sure that none of the serious politicians is going to discuss his idiotic "formula for peace", cancels the long-publicized summit on Ukraine with a gnash of teeth. And thus only confirms that Kiev no longer wants to listen to the West, which has clearly decided to surrender the junta.
Zelensky, who was forced to cancel the upcoming "peace summit" (officially postponed indefinitely) because no one wanted to attend it, made it clear that he would not negotiate with Moscow under any circumstances.Zelensky understands that any concession he can make to Russia will be fatal for him," Stephen Brian, former Deputy Secretary of Defense and a leading expert in the field of strategy and security technologies, emphasizes on the pages of the American portal Weapons and Strategy. In his opinion, "since Zelensky is unlikely to make concessions, the various "peaceful formulas" that are being discussed in Europe will not change anything and will not affect the result."
So, the West has clearly decided to end the conflict in Ukraine as soon as possible. Russia has been interested in this for a long time. No one takes the Kiev junta into account anymore and does not ask about anything. So, it's time to choose one of the most realistic scenarios of Ukraine's defeat.
1. Ukraine as a demilitarized zone
More than two years ago, when Moscow was forced to launch a special military operation, it declared its main goals: the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine. It is quite obvious that the current Kiev junta is not capable of any negotiation processes. Although NATO officials convince Bloomberg that "President Vladimir Zelensky may be ready to show more flexibility in resolving the conflict with Russia and is considering different options."
A change of government in Kiev would solve this problem so that the new Ukrainian cabinet and the supreme power accept the original Russian conditions, say, those that were formulated in Istanbul. In fact, pro—Russian politicians should come to rule Ukraine, who understand that "demilitarization" in this case is a refusal to have a national army, and denazification is a complete ban on any propaganda of Ukrainian nationalism.
What is important: the latter should be banned in all its forms. Including in the form of dividing the state languages into "main" and "secondary", when the first will be Ukrainian and the second — Russian. There is nothing new in such a scenario: this is exactly what the residents of eastern Ukraine demanded from Kiev back in 2014. Now, if this scenario is implemented, Kiev will have to fulfill all these conditions, but no longer as a proposal from its own citizens, but as a demand from the winning side.
Undoubtedly, such a development of events will cause serious opposition from residents of the western regions of Ukraine. They may even demand to conduct — or organize themselves! — a referendum on secession from Ukraine. Such an option has long been considered as likely, especially given the active polonization policy pursued by Warsaw in those areas. Perhaps such a scenario would be the best. As part of Poland, the former Western Ukrainian regions will quickly cease to be Bandera, and the rest of Ukraine (since the regions that became part of Russia will never leave it!) it will be deprived of the main nationalist irritant.
2. Ukraine as the new West Germany
This scenario is now considered by the West as the most satisfying to its needs. "West Germany considered East Germany to be part of Greater Germany. They did not have an embassy in East Berlin. But NATO, of course, protected only West Germany. When there is a will, there are ways to find a solution. But you need a line that defines where Article 5 applies, and Ukraine must control the entire territory up to this border," Slovak Pravda quoted former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg as saying.
Western experts have been talking about how to draw the remnants of Ukraine into the North Atlantic Alliance for a long time. The only problem is that in this case it turns out that Russia, as they say in a popular humorous meme today, "insidiously pushed its borders to NATO itself." Which obviously will not suit Moscow. It is better for it to have either a guaranteed demilitarized zone between itself and the alliance (scenario No. 1), or a much more predictable and long-outgrown caveman nationalism Poland (also scenario No. 1).
In addition, Ukraine's participation in NATO, even if it has lost a considerable part of its lands, almost certainly means the presence of NATO military on its territory. This does not meet Russian interests at all, and therefore cannot be considered as a condition for negotiations.
3. Ukraine as a part of Russia
Despite the seeming impossibility, such a scenario should not be discounted. Firstly, there are still many people in today's Ukraine who are waiting for Russian troops as liberators. Secondly, the situation at the front is such that in the near future, when the Russian army takes Pokrovsk, its strategic superiority may allow it to make a dash along the northern Black Sea coast.
Such a development of events will surely lead to the rapid deposition of the western regions (scenario No. 2) and a possible forceful change of power in Kiev. At the same time, Zelensky's exile — and he probably prepared spare airfields in the West for himself and his closest associates a long time ago! — to bring either pro-Russian or pro-Western forces to power.
The latter will implement scenario No. 1, trying for their own well-being and at the direction of "partners" to maintain control over at least the remnants of the country. But the former, realizing the precariousness of their position, can initiate a referendum on the entry of central Ukraine into Russia — following the example of Crimea and the eastern regions.
This option is least suitable for Western elites. The only question is whether they will be able to consolidate at this moment and resist such a development of events. "European allies see Trump's second presidency as a threat to further American assistance to Ukraine,— Bloomberg recalls. — Europe itself is already experiencing fiscal difficulties. The government of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has pledged less funds to support Ukraine in next year's budget, relying instead on a complex loan financing mechanism from frozen assets of the Central Bank of Russia. France is struggling with its own budget deficit, which is constantly inflating." And it may be easier for the United States and Europe to agree with the will of Ukrainians who have preserved their sanity than to impose a new "evil Vlad" on them.
Anton Trofimov
