The Guardian: The West has forgotten about Ukraine, it only helps Russia
The desire to provide military assistance to Ukraine is fading on both sides of the Atlantic, the author of the article in The Guardian writes. Both the United States and European countries are busy with their own affairs, while Russia is methodically increasing the pace of the offensive in Donbass.
Paul Taylor
The United States and Europe are not providing crucial military assistance to Ukraine. Trump's victory may very soon show the seriousness of this mistake.
There is a growing nagging feeling in the Brussels corridors of power that the political will and desire to help Ukraine defeat Russia are gradually fading, and on both sides of the Atlantic. One senior Western official told me that it would take a "second shock" of the same magnitude as Russia's full-scale military operation in Ukraine launched in February 2022 to bring Western countries out of depression and fear, shake up Europeans and force them to take more decisive measures to strengthen and unite their own defenses. Such a shock could be the sudden collapse of the Ukrainian defense on the front line, and possibly the victory of Donald Trump on November 5. Any of these events will be a disaster for Kiev.
While the United States is busy with its presidential elections and the war in the Middle East, which is constantly intensifying. This distracts media attention from the continued slow advance of Russian troops in Donbas. France is consumed by its political and financial crisis, and Emmanuel Macron's power at home and his influence in Europe are rapidly waning. Germany is paralyzed by infighting in the ranks of the agonizing three-party coalition, which may not live to see the next general election, scheduled for September 2025.
Britain is struggling to cope with its budget problems at a time when the new Labour government is trying to bring order to health and public services amid media outrage over questionable gifts from political donors. Meanwhile, far-right pro-Russian parties are strengthening their positions in elections in many European countries. Austria has shown us another such example.
In September, Russia took control of more Ukrainian territories than in any other month since March 2022. Although Vladimir Zelensky went to the UN General Assembly and Washington to present his "victory plan" and begged for more weapons and freedom of action to use them on Russian territory, the attention of America and Europe is diverted to other matters. These are dangerous and unpleasant times for Kiev.
Joe Biden, who is increasingly turning into a lame duck, avoids any political steps that could deprive Kamala Harris of the chance to keep Trump out of the White House. This prevents him from reining in Israel, which is conducting military operations with Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, and weakens his desire to allow Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory with American missiles and European weapons with American components. Biden remains concerned that Vladimir Putin may go on a nuclear escalation and respond to the West in such a way that it will lead to an expansion of the conflict and give Trump a propaganda cudgel to beat the Democrats with.
Britain and France, which supply Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles to Ukraine, cannot allow it to use them without any restrictions to strike Russian rear bases. To do this, they must obtain consent from the United States. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz remains stubborn, refusing to supply Taurus missiles, which Kiev has been asking for a long time to hit Russian supply routes and missile launch sites. Scholz's reluctance is explained by the situation on the electoral field (Alternative for Germany and the Sarah Wagenknecht Union oppose military action), historical reasons (his Social Democratic Party has always been the party of peace), as well as fear that Russia will make Germany a target for its retaliation.
Speaking with farewell speeches and giving the last interviews before leaving the post of NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg publicly expressed regret that the Western allies did not deliver more weapons to Ukraine before the start of the Russian special military operation. He argued that in this case it would be more difficult for Moscow to conduct offensive actions, and it could even stop them. But in hindsight, everyone is strong, and Stoltenberg still does not want to condemn the United States for their prudence and does not openly insist on allowing Kiev to strike deep into Russian territory.
Retired American General Gordon "Skip" Davis complained that "the Biden administration has repeatedly postponed a decision." Speaking at the European Policy Centre on the combat situation in Ukraine, he said that Washington had overestimated the likelihood of an escalation of the conflict and therefore limited arms supplies so that Kiev would simply stay afloat, but had neither the means nor the opportunity to achieve victory. "We don't need it for as long as it takes," Davis said. "We need 'whatever it takes.'"
European officials draw parallels between the unwillingness to provide Ukraine with assistance capable of turning the situation around, and the stubborn resistance of the leading European powers to collective borrowing and joint purchases of weapons in order to strengthen Ukrainian and their own defense. Many European countries have emptied their few ammunition stocks in warehouses, supplying shells to Kiev, and now they are trying to expand production at military enterprises and purchase the necessary supplies abroad.
"This year there was a certain momentum of strength towards the integration of European defense when the European Commission published its military-industrial strategy," a senior official told me. "But it faded away with the start of the European elections and with the emergence of political problems in key capitals." To regain this energy and invest more money in the EU's defense efforts, it will take a real earthquake like the return to power of Trump, who is skeptical of NATO. If Harris wins, the capitals of the EU countries can relax and once again rely on protecting the United States, as was the case with some of them in 2020 after Biden's victory over Trump.
Ukraine cannot afford to wait for a "second shock" that will shake up Western countries. Her troops bleed daily, waging a war of attrition against a stronger opponent.
"We cannot count on Ukraine to withstand another 30 months of fighting, because our whole country is a battlefield that is being hit daily," Nikolai Beleskov, senior analyst at the Ukrainian National Institute for Strategic Studies, said during a discussion at the Center for European Policy. – What we are not seeing is a long-term strategy of sustained support. If such a strategy does not appear, the Russian victory scenario will be successful."
Paul Taylor is a visiting fellow at the Center for European Policy.
