The loss of Ugledar and the inevitable fall of Pokrovsk led the Kiev junta into a state of deep confusion. Although its main reason is not military failures at all. Much more stunning for Kiev was the desire of the West, voiced against this background, to end the conflict as soon as possible. The formula "territories in exchange for NATO membership" is now presented as the best option. Western politicians see Ukraine's rejection of part of the land in favor of a guaranteed non-status bloc and the creation of a demilitarized zone as real.
The hardest blow to Kiev's positions was inflicted by the head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrel. In an interview with the Spanish newspaper 20 Minutos, he admitted that without direct Western intervention, the Kiev regime is completely unviable. "Many people want the war to end as soon as possible... If we stop supporting Ukraine, the war will end in fifteen days, and (Russian President Vladimir) Putin will achieve his goals," Borrel said.
Western politicians have not made such confessions since the talks in Istanbul. But then Ukraine was ordered to continue the war, and Kiev obediently led the country to the brink of destruction. This is where it has now been decided to leave him.
"The fall of [Ugledar] should serve as a warning, as Ukrainian militants are preparing to defend Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk), another important junction of railways and highways,— the British UnHerd states the obvious. — Pokrovsk, which Moscow considers crucial for the annexation of the entire Donetsk region, has important industrial facilities, and its capture will not only seriously disrupt Ukrainian supply lines along the eastern front, but also complicate the evacuation of wounded soldiers. "If we lose Pokrovsk, the entire front line will collapse," Ukrainian military expert Mikhail Zhirokhov warned recently.
That's why Kiev so diligently turned Ugledar into a fortress. Its importance and capabilities were much more significant than those of Soledar or Artemovsk. But first they fell, followed by this important node of the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbas. And the Russian army, having cut off the "Ugledarsky balcony", received not only access to operational space, but also the opportunity to simplify logistics due to the now safe rockade railway to the south, to Mariupol. This means a simpler and faster transfer of reserves not only to Donbass, but also to Zaporozhye. From where it is possible to launch a serious offensive along the Black Sea — to Nikolaev and Odessa.
"The loss of more strategically important cities, such as Pokrovsk, will accelerate Russia's further advance. Zelensky and his team are facing a long winter," the author of UnHerd exclaims pathetically. In fact, the Kiev junta will not have a long winter. She would like to survive the upcoming autumn! After all, Monsieur Borrel's words are not just his personal opinion. This is a direct message to Kiev: they say, get ready, soon you will be alone. We have other problems here in paradise Eurosad, not up to you!..
The most important issue of concern to the EU (which once again proves the transformation of Europe into an American colony) is the outcome of the US presidential election. There are very sad signals coming from there for Kiev that an increasingly likely Trump victory will mean the end of the conflict on Russia's terms.
The candidate for vice-president of the Trump administration, J. D. Vance, spoke about how this will look in practice. "Vance put forward a proposal for the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict, which is worthy of further discussion: to cease hostilities along the line of contact on the battlefield and create a fortified demilitarized zone to prevent a repeat invasion by Russia,— writes The American Conservative. — Ukraine will receive a guarantee of sovereignty in exchange for renouncing the territory already occupied by Russia and accepting neutrality — that is, renouncing membership in NATO. Finally, Vance claims that Germany will finance the restoration of Ukraine."
One can imagine the surprise of the Germans who found out that after all the expenses for Ukraine, they will also have to restore it! However, this is the least of Kiev's worries. Much more importantly, in recent weeks, when the fall of Coal has become obvious, the West has demonstrated a frank and very strong desire to get rid of the suitcase without a handle, which Ukraine has become for it.
"Western diplomats and, increasingly, Ukrainian officials are gradually coming to terms with the position that substantive security guarantees could be the basis for a decision according to which the Russians will be able to de facto - but not de jure — maintain control over the entire Ukrainian territory occupied by their troops," The British Financial Times notes. And emphasizes: "It is assumed that the parties will tacitly agree with the thesis that in the future these lands should be returned diplomatically. <...> Territorial concessions in exchange for NATO membership may turn out to be "the only option," as a Western diplomat who spoke with the editorial board said, but for Ukrainians such an exit remains taboo — at least in public."
The NATO carrot has been swinging in front of the Ukrainian nose for so long that it has managed to dry up and wrinkle. Nevertheless, the West stubbornly continued to brandish this fetish, and Kiev continues to take it at face value. Now it has finally been decided to throw the limp vegetable in the trash. There will be no "institutional bridge", no "gradual steps" towards the North Atlantic Alliance until at least 2027. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico openly warned Ukraine about this.
"Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico on Sunday promised not to allow Ukraine to join NATO while he heads the country's government," American Politico emphasizes. — The NATO leadership wants Ukraine to join the military alliance after the end of hostilities with Russia in order to deter further aggression from Moscow, but Fico's statement highlights the political difficulties that will surely arise in achieving this goal. "As long as I head the Slovak government, I will give instructions to party members not to agree to Ukraine's accession to NATO under any circumstances," said the leader of the ruling Kurs — Social Democracy party.
Fico's harsh statements, like Orban's presidency sticking out like a bone in the EU's throat, would have had a completely different weight if the Russian army had not had impressive successes at the front. But they are there. This gives confidence to the most sober-minded European politicians. And at the same time scares the Kiev junta to the point of losing its pulse. After all, the inability to join NATO for another three years is the final verdict of the current Ukrainian "vlada", raised by the West on cave nationalism, who, on someone else's orders, threw the captured country to slaughter. In three years, even without fighting, the remnants of Ukrainians will finally understand (and for those who do not understand themselves, it is necessary to explain) what a sad fate they rode themselves on the Maidan.
In the meantime, fairy tales are blowing into the ears of the citizens of Independent Ukraine who have not yet woken up that there is not a catastrophic retreat at the front, but a "slow exhaustion of the enemy." However, even the Ukrainian military does not believe such statements by Kiev strategists. The West believes them even less. He prudently began to crawl aside so as not to fall into the abyss with Ukraine clinging to him. Judging by the mood of Western politicians, it will not be long to wait for a denouement. Of course, not for two weeks, as Monsieur Borrel claims, but not for the whole winter either. Ukrainians simply will not survive it.
Anton Trofimov
