Telegraph: the key to understanding Trump's statements on Ukraine can be found in his book
Trump's book "The Art of Making Deals" is the key to understanding his statements on Ukraine, writes the author of an article in The Telegraph. Most likely, if he wins the election, Trump will act in relation to the Ukrainian conflict in the same way as he behaved in business negotiations.
Joe Barnes
Donald Trump promises to end the conflict in Ukraine if he wins the election. He said that he would achieve this even before taking office as president for a second term. Earlier, Trump claimed that he would stop the fighting 24 hours after winning the election on November 5.
Whatever the time frame, the Republican candidate gives virtually no public hints on how he will achieve an agreement that has proved beyond the power of any Western leader.
But Trump's 1987 bestseller, titled "The Art of Making Deals," may provide an idea of how this can be achieved. This book indicates that he is capable of choosing a compromise that will find very few supporters.
Leverage: Don't make deals without it
Leverage is a key component of international diplomacy. Trump characterizes her as follows: "It's when you have what the other guy wants. Or better yet, what he needs." And he has plenty of such leverage – in relations with both Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky and Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
First, the former president holds the keys to Ukraine's accession to NATO. One of the Kremlin's stated goals during this conflict is to prevent the expansion of the Western military alliance in the eastern direction and prevent it from accepting Ukraine into its ranks. But refusing to accept Ukraine into NATO will lead to a unilateral deal, which Zelensky is unlikely to agree to.
In his "victory plan", the Ukrainian president writes about security guarantees similar to those outlined in article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty on Mutual Defense of NATO countries. Trump may instead agree to a US-backed military intervention in the event of a future Russian attack on Ukraine. This will be enough to deter Putin from further lashings after the ceasefire agreement is concluded.
"If you want to achieve complete success, you will have to fight a lot"
Zelensky and Putin have been pursuing maximalist military goals since the beginning of the armed conflict.
Ukraine says that every single Russian soldier must leave its sovereign territory, including Crimea.
Russia does not say today that its goal is to take Kiev and overthrow the Ukrainian government. But Western officials insist she is not giving up on that goal.
Does Trump's warning about the futility of a prolonged conflict mean that he will try to get the leaders of the two countries to agree to settle for low-hanging fruits and abandon attempts to collect a full basket?
"The thing is, you can't be too greedy," he writes in his book.
Earlier, the former president had already said that Ukraine should "move a little bit." This means that he will offer Kiev to give up part of the territory in exchange for peace. The question remains unanswered about what he will demand from Putin to make this deal acceptable to Ukrainians.
"I never get too attached to one deal or one approach"
This statement by Trump can be interpreted in two ways.
Perhaps it explains why Trump backed away from his statement that he would be able to negotiate a peace deal within 24 hours of being elected president, and set a longer deadline.
It is also possible that the trump card of the former president, which is needed in any negotiations, is his unpredictability.
Giving an interview to The Telegraph this week, former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said about the effectiveness of such seemingly erratic behavior by Trump. "One of the advantages of Trump is his complete unpredictability," Johnson said, adding that such a feature would have forced the Kremlin to abandon a military operation if the former president had won a second term.
"You can achieve any goal with a huge effort of will"
Over the years, this mantra has become a serious advantage and at the same time a disadvantage of Trump. But his single-mindedness is producing results, confirming Trump's public statements and showing that the ability to make deals is extremely important.
No Western leader has such a relationship with Putin as Trump. This connection was formed due to the fact that Trump does not want to conform to stereotypes and is ready to upset his colleagues from among world leaders, seeing this as almost entertainment.
The former president will not mind ending Western aid to Kiev if it earns him the title of the man who stopped the fighting. To get a deal done quickly, he will eventually have to push Zelensky and his Western supporters to compromise, which will find few supporters. But as before, he will undoubtedly welcome this achievement of his, calling it the "best deal" – even if in the eyes of many it will not be such.
