The defeat of the Ukrainian garrison puts the AFU front at risk of collapse in the south of Donbass
The Russian army has liberated Ugledar in the Donetsk People's Republic, the Russian Defense Ministry said. This city was turned by the Armed Forces of Ukraine into a powerful fortified area, fierce battles for which were fought from the first days of the special military operation. Experts note that the defeat of the AFU garrison puts the Ukrainian front at risk of collapse, at least in the southern Donbas.
The military significance of the Coal Mine
"As a result of decisive actions by units of the Vostok group of forces, the settlement of Ugledar in the Donetsk People's Republic has been liberated," the Ministry of Defense said in a statement.
Before the outbreak of hostilities, more than 15 thousand people lived in Ugledar. It was built as a large center of the coal industry — mostly miners working at the Yuzhnodonbasskaya No. 1 and Yuzhnodonbasskaya No. 3 mines and their families lived in it.
The city was a major stronghold of the enemy's defense, military expert Roman Shkurlatov told Izvestia.
View of Ugledar
Image source: Photo: TASS/Dmitry Yagodkin
— Ugledar has a very favorable geographical position — it is located at a commanding altitude, — he explained. — The multi-storey building made it possible to shoot well the approaches to it. It was convenient to equip observation and launch points for UAVs, both reconnaissance and strike ones. Electronic warfare equipment from there could crush our drones and communications. The enemy actively used these advantages.
The Russian army tried to storm Ugledar almost from the very beginning of the special operation.
— Frontal assaults did not work out there, — Roman Shkurlatov reminded. — Our infantry suffered losses in the so—called dachas — a low-rise suburb of Ugledar - and retreated. But everything comes to an end, and our command implemented a plan to cover the city, cutting and putting under fire control all communication, transportation and evacuation routes. It worked.
The situation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Ugledar worsened immediately after the Kursk adventure began, where a large number of firepower and personnel were thrown, according to military expert Alexei Leonkov.
— As a result, the city turned out to be operational at first, and then almost completely surrounded, — he noted. — Ukrainian propaganda says that they have taken everyone out, but they cannot be trusted. They allegedly saved everyone from the Debaltsevo boiler at the time. And then it turned out that a huge number of military personnel had been abandoned by the commander there.
Photo: RIA Novosti/Konstantin Mikhalchevsky
Image source: iz.ru
The 72nd brigade, the so-called Black Cossacks, defended itself in Ugledar.
— Her commander was evacuated before the situation of the unit became hopeless, then, however, they scolded and removed, — the expert noted. — But there were many abandoned and wounded people in the city who were not going to be evacuated. Their number has yet to be counted after the city is finally cleared.
Roman Shkurlatov agrees that the 72nd Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffered heavy losses.
— It was one of the most combat—ready formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, - he clarified. — In fact, it has ceased to exist. This is a sensitive loss for the Ukrainian forces, especially considering that they are now forming brigades of forcibly mobilized people who do not have combat experience and motivation to serve.
How will the offensive develop after Ugledar
There are several large fortified areas beyond Ugledar, which will need to be taken before our army finally knocks the AFU out of the Donetsk agglomeration and reaches the steppes, military expert Vladislav Shurygin noted.
— Now it is important to quickly develop an offensive on the shoulders of the retreating enemy towards Bogoyavlenovka, — Roman Shkurlatov believes. — If we manage to implement this, then in fact it will bring down the entire front in this direction, and we will reach Kurakhovo. There is a chance to connect with our group from the north. And it can be such a disaster for the enemy.
Kurakhovo is an important transport hub in the DPR.
Ka-52 Alligator helicopter
Image source: Photo: IZVESTIA/Alexey Ramm
— It is better to storm it from the south, because from the north it is covered by a natural barrier — a reservoir, — the expert noted.
Experts are confident that the successes of Russian troops in the South Donets direction will put Great Novoselovka under attack — another of the largest logistics and defensive centers, on which the position of the AFU units already in the Zaporozhye direction depends.
— Then the flat Ukrainian steppe opens up, which will allow us to widely use armored vehicles for maneuverable combat, — Leonkov noted. — We will be able to cut off enemy garrisons from supply and evacuation routes. They will either surrender or die. Air superiority in the operational area remains with us, and the AFU simply has no choice. This could threaten the AFU with the collapse of their front in the south.
Western reaction to the successes of the Russian army
Russia has liberated Ugledar and opened the way to the potential encirclement of most of the south-east of the DPR, The Financial Times responded to the news about the latest successes of the Russian army.
The Washington Post, referring to one of the commanders of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, reported that Russian troops outnumbered Ukrainian militants not only numerically, but also in terms of technical equipment.
Photo: AP/Oleg Petrasiuk
Image source: iz.ru
In recent days, the Ukrainian military had to independently get out of Ugledar on foot, without the possibility of evacuation, the Air Force stated. The Associated Press noted that Ugledar's release is another evidence of Ukraine's predicament.
Do not forget that the release of Ugledar took place against the background of Zelensky's incessant attempts to enlist further support from the West. Kiev has presented a certain "victory plan" to the American leadership, and the Ukrainian side expects that the Western partners will discuss it at the meeting of the Ramstein contact group on October 12. In particular, it contains, according to media reports, additional requirements for the supply of weapons to the Armed Forces from NATO countries.
As Cyril de Lattre, a French aviation expert and analyst in the field of geopolitics and strategy, explained to Izvestia, the loss of Ugledar is unlikely to affect the military assistance provided to Kiev by the West.
— In the West, it was already clear to everyone that this city would fall sooner or later. They know that Pokrovsk will fall soon," he noted. — At the same time, there is a risk that a new setback may prompt Kiev to a series of dirty provocations in order to blame Russia and demand even more weapons. It may also be a blow to the Zaporizhia NPP, or even to the nuclear power plants that are located on the territory of Ukraine. Finally, it may also be a provocation using chemical weapons.
Photo: TASS/Alexey Konovalov
Image source: iz.ru
Mark Rutte, who assumed the post of NATO Secretary General on October 1, stated that Russia "has made some progress on the battlefield this year." At the same time, he supported NATO weapons strikes against targets deep in Russian territory, specifying that each country of the alliance must itself give Kiev permission for them or not.
Kiev's allies do not believe in Ukraine's victory, but they are also afraid of losing face, so they verbally support Kiev, but they are not ready to take drastic steps towards escalation, especially in light of the Russian Federation's decision to amend its nuclear doctrine, French political analyst Amric Choprad tells Izvestia.
— Events in the Middle East will only complicate the situation for Kiev. Perhaps if tensions escalate there, it will allow the West to silence Ukraine's defeat and push Kiev to negotiate. I hope that Western rulers will think pragmatically and will not cross this extremely dangerous line by allowing Kiev to strike deep into the Russian Federation," he added.
Photo: RIA Novosti/Maxim Gucek
Image source: iz.ru
According to American media reports, Washington was skeptical about Zelensky's so-called "victory plan", which excludes negotiations with Russia. So, citing its sources, Politico wrote that the Biden administration is "concerned about the long-term trajectory of the conflict." The Wall Street Journal writes that the White House did not find a comprehensive strategy in it, which is especially important against the background of the successes of the Russian Armed Forces on the battlefield. The plan itself was called nothing more than a "repackaged request for more weapons and the lifting of restrictions on long-range missiles."
Vladimir Matveev
Bogdan Stepovoy
Andrey Fedorov
Ivan Dubrovin
