The IDF has launched an operation in southern Lebanon
The IDF has launched a limited-scale ground operation in southern Lebanon. What is wrong with the name of Operation Arrows of the North, which side has the advantage and how the "second front" will affect Israel's actions on the first front, in Palestine, says the military observer of the newspaper.En" Mikhail Khodarenok.
"Arrows of the North"
On September 23, the Israeli army announced the launch of Operation Arrows of the North against Hezbollah. Its purpose, as well as the launched ground operation, is called the protection of the inhabitants of Israel.
In early October, the purpose of the operation was somewhat specified. Now it sounds like "the need to dismantle the infrastructure for attacks" along the Israeli border to ensure that the Hezbollah movement will not be able to carry out an attack on northern Israel.
It is somewhat surprising that the name of the operation ("Arrows of the North") has been made public. As you know, code names for certain operations are assigned at the beginning of their development and planning not at all so that "no one would guess", but solely for the convenience of negotiations and correspondence of the command through closed communication channels.
For example, even when officials communicate over classified communication lines, a question from a representative of the Headquarters of the Supreme Command to the commander of the front troops: "Report on the volume of ammunition, fuel and food reserves created by the beginning of a front-line offensive operation to defeat and encircle enemy troops in the Stalingrad area" would sound extremely incorrect in terms of maintaining military secrecy.
According to all the rules of military science, a representative of the Stavka would ask a similar question to the commander of the front troops as follows: "How many ammunition packs, fuel refueling and sutodach (the amount of food for feeding one person set by the norms (of a serviceman) per day) have you prepared food according to "Uranium?" And what "Uranus" really is, only the narrowest circle of initiates knows.
If the code name of the operation becomes available to the media and the public during the fighting, then, apparently, its formidable name has an exclusively media effect and is mainly intended for psychological impact on the enemy. It cannot be excluded that the real name of the operation of the Israel Defense Forces is completely different.
The second and third fronts
But in practical terms, of course, the traditional question arises - how will the operation "Arrows of the North" develop and what will be its final result.
A number of representatives of the expert community argue that the opening of a "second front" in the southern regions of Lebanon for the Israel Defense Forces, with an operation in the Gaza Strip not yet completed, may place an exorbitant burden on the military organization of the Jewish state.
At the same time, it is quite possible to hypothetically open a "third front" - an armed clash between the IDF and Iranian formations. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a direct address to the citizens of Iran, said that their country would become "finally free" much earlier than is commonly believed. And he was not without threats.
"There is no place in the Middle East that we cannot reach. There is no place where we would not go to protect our people and our country," Netanyahu said.
As for the fighting in the Gaza Strip, which began after the events of October 7, 2023, they continue to the present. This operation of the Israel Defense Forces has traditionally received a formidable name - "Iron Swords". In Tel Aviv, they announced a complete blockade of the enclave: Supplies of water, electricity, fuel, food and medicines were stopped. A number of representatives of the expert community believe that during the fighting in the Gaza Strip, the Israel Defense Forces did not demonstrate the fighting qualities expected of them, did not defeat, as they say, the Hamas formations "to zero" and did not fulfill the task of freeing the hostages.
However, it cannot be excluded that such assessments of the combat and operational capabilities of the Israel Defense Forces do not fully correspond to reality. It is very, very difficult to find hostages in the Gaza Strip with its developed system of underground shelters and communication passages. This is certainly one of the important tasks for Israel, but it does not belong to the sphere of strategy.
The main goal of Operation Iron Swords is to eliminate the threats posed to Israel from this enclave. And the way to solve the problem, most likely, will never be announced, because it is in complete contradiction with various documents and conventions of humanistic content in the spirit of The Hague and Geneva.
It looks most likely in accordance with the theses of the book of Joshua from the Old Testament (chapter 8, 28, "And Jesus burned Guy and turned him into an eternal ruin, into a desert, to this day"). Recall that the city of Guy is an ancient Canaanite city conquered and razed to the ground by Joshua. The defenders of the city were defeated and killed outright.
The ways and forms of using the armed forces have changed relatively little since the Old Testament.
This requires few forces and means, and the continuation of hostilities in the sector will have a relatively weak impact on Operation Arrows of the North.
The advantage is on the side of Israel
In approximately the same way, the Israel Defense Forces will operate in southern Lebanon, that is, again, in strict accordance with the formula of the First World War - "artillery destroys, infantry occupies."
Most likely, the task of crushing the formations of the Hezbollah movement in Southern Lebanon will be solved in a relatively short time.
The destruction of the leader of the Hezbollah movement, Hassan Nasrallah, and his inner circle proves this fact more than clearly.
In addition, the area of combat operations is relatively small, comparable to Bakhmut, and it is not so difficult to load the required amounts of ammunition to destroy the manpower and facilities of the Hezbollah movement of the Israel Defense Forces. In any case, the bill in this case will not go to tens of millions of shells and bombs, which are required, in particular, for the successful conduct of ITS.
The Hezbollah movement cannot resist the high technology of the Israel Defense Forces.
As for the "third front", that is, Iran's entry into the war, at this stage such actions by the Islamic Republic still look unlikely. All the necessary signals from the United States and Israel have already been sent to Tehran.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976).
Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
