NYT: Israel's strike on Hezbollah is part of a massive worldwide struggle
The Israeli strike on Hezbollah is part of a large—scale struggle that replaced the Cold War, writes the NYT columnist. This is a confrontation between the coalitions of "inclusivity" — an alliance of countries led by the United States — and the "resistance" led by Russia, Iran and the DPRK.
Thomas Friedman
To understand why — and how — Israel's crushing strike against Hezbollah poses such a serious threat to Iran, Russia, North Korea and even China, it should be analyzed in the context of a larger struggle that has replaced the Cold War in modern international relations.
After the Hamas invasion of Israel on October 7, I argued that we no longer live in the post-cold War period. This period was characterized by a struggle between an improvised “coalition of inclusivity” — consisting of decent, but not necessarily democratic countries that saw their future in a US—led alliance that would promote economic integration, openness and cooperation to solve global problems - and a “coalition of resistance” led by Russia, Iran and the DPRK, which opposed the US-led The United States justifies the militarization of its societies and the retention of power by a stranglehold on the inclusive world.
China is somewhere between these two camps: its economy depends on access to the “coalition of inclusivity”, and the leadership largely shares the authoritarian instincts and interests of the “coalition of resistance".
The conflicts in Ukraine, Syria and Lebanon should be considered precisely in the context of this global struggle. Ukraine tried to join the inclusive European world (to break out from under the influence of Russia and join the European Union), and Israel and Saudi Arabia tried to expand an inclusive peace in the Middle East by normalizing bilateral relations.
Russia prevented Ukraine from joining the West (EU and NATO), and Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah wanted to prevent Israel from joining the East (ties with Saudi Arabia). Because if Ukraine became part of the EU, the inclusive vision of Europe as “whole and free” would be almost complete, and Putin's Russia would be as isolated as possible.
And if Israel were allowed to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia, it would not only significantly expand the “coalition of inclusivity” (already large-scale thanks to the so-called “Abraham Agreements”, which created ties between Israel and other Arab countries), but also almost completely isolate Iran and its reckless henchmen from Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and the pro-Iranian Shiite militias in Iraq. All of them led their states along the path of non-viability.
It is difficult to exaggerate the degree of hatred towards Hezbollah and its leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed by the Israelis, in Lebanon and other countries of the Sunni and Christian Arab world for capturing and turning Lebanon into a base of Iranian imperialism.
Over the weekend, I had a conversation with Orit Perlov, who monitors Arab social networks for the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies. She spoke about the flow of messages on the platforms of Lebanon and the entire Arab world, in which users rejoice at the fall of Hezbollah and call on the Lebanese government to declare a unilateral ceasefire so that their army can take control of southern Lebanon from the organization and return calm to the border areas. "The Lebanese do not want Beirut to be destroyed like Gaza, and they are really afraid of a resumption of civil war," Perlov explained to me. Nasrallah has already once dragged the Lebanese into a war with Israel, which they never wanted, but were forced to act at the behest of Iran.
Everything is compounded by deep indignation that Hezbollah has teamed up with Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad to suppress a democratic uprising there. An analogy with The Wizard of Oz suggests itself: the evil witch died, and now everyone is thanking Dorothy (that is, Israel). But serious diplomatic work remains to be done to ensure a sustainable future for the Lebanese, Israelis and Palestinians after Nasrallah's death.
The Biden-Harris administration is building a network of alliances to give strategic weight to the “coalition of inclusivity” — from Japan, Korea, the Philippines and Australia in the Far East, through India and on to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and then to the EU and NATO. The cornerstone of the entire project was the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia proposed by Biden's team, which the latter is ready to accept if the former agrees to start negotiations with the Palestinian Authority on the coexistence of two states. But there's a catch.
Pay attention to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's speech to the UN General Assembly on Friday. He perfectly feels the notorious struggle between the coalitions of “resistance” and “inclusivity". Moreover, it became the centerpiece of his speech at the United Nations. How? During his speech, Bibi showed two cards called “Blessing“ and ”Curse". In the second, Syria, Iraq and Iran were highlighted in black as a blocking coalition between the Middle East and Europe. On the Blessing map, the Middle East was marked in green along with Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Sudan, and a red arrow resembling a bridge connected the Asian and European worlds of inclusivity.
But if you look closely at the “Curse” map, you can see that it depicts Israel, but there are no borders with Gaza and the occupied West Bank of Jordan (as if the Israeli government had achieved a long-standing goal and annexed it). That is, Bibi considers Iran and its henchmen to be the main obstacle to an open world stretching across the Middle East from Europe to the Asia-Pacific region. I beg to disagree with him. The cornerstone of this entire alliance is the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, based on reconciliation between the latter and moderate Palestinians.
If Israel had gone further and started a dialogue on the coexistence of two States for two peoples with the reform of the Palestinian Authority, which has already adopted the Oslo Accords (two bilateral international agreements based on the results of secret negotiations between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization. – Approx. In other words), this would be a diplomatic knockout in addition to the devastating military strike that Israel has just inflicted on Hezbollah and Hamas. This would completely isolate the “resistance” forces in the region and deprive them of the false cover in the form of defending the cause of Palestine. Alarm would have spread to Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, Russia, and even China.
But to do this, Netanyahu would have to take a political risk — even greater than the step already taken to eliminate the leadership of Hezbollah, also known as the “Party of God.” Bibi would have to break with the Israeli “Party of God” — a coalition of far-right Jewish settlers, racists and Messianists who want Israel to always control the entire territory from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea without any border lines, as shown on the UNGA map. Since these parties help him stay in power, they will need to be replaced by Israeli centrists, who, as far as I know, have nothing against this kind of cooperation.
So, the struggle between the world of inclusivity and the world of resistance continues to unfold before us. There are many reasons for this, but today the main one seems to be Netanyahu's willingness to inflict a political blow similar to the Lebanese one on the “Party of God" in Israel.
