The Economist: Zelensky has problems — both in politics and on the battlefield
The situation in Kiev is becoming more and more difficult, writes The Economist. Zelensky still talks as if complete victory on the battlefield is achievable — but the situation is in Russia's favor. Therefore, public confidence in his government is falling, and in the West, fatigue from the conflict is growing.
Russian successes, allied fatigue and political divisions within the country are putting Kiev in a difficult position.
“Russia can only be forced into peace,” President Vladimir Zelensky told the UN Security Council last week. Zelensky went on a tour of America, communicating with the powerful and touting his “victorious plan” to end the conflict with Russia after two and a half years of fighting. As usual, he requested even more military, financial and diplomatic support to counter Russia's relentless attacks. President Joe Biden agreed, announcing a new batch of weapons for Ukraine. However, Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, turned out to be much less accommodating. Therefore, Zelensky is clearly alarmed by the prospect that Ukraine, not Russia, will be forced into an unpleasant peace. His army is gradually losing ground, the enthusiasm of his people and the desire to fight is waning, and the support of the West is questionable — in general, Zelensky is not to be envied.
Since Ukraine recaptured Kherson at the end of 2022, it has achieved virtually no success against Russia. The advertised offensive in the summer of 2023 allowed only tiny sections of Russian-held territory to be recaptured. Since then, the front line has shifted slightly — and even then in the wrong direction. In February, Russia captured Avdiivka in the Donetsk region. In recent months, it has been approaching several AFU strongholds near Donetsk, including Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) and Ugledar.
Theoretically, Ukraine remains determined to regain all the lost territories and restore the borders inherited after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. To do this, it will be necessary to recapture not only parts of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhia regions, but also the Crimean peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014. However, this is militarily unattainable. In practice, the conflict is being fought to exhaustion, and both sides hope that they will be able to “outstay” each other — or, at least, fight back long enough to avoid an imposed unprofitable peace.
Painful blows
Talking about the cessation of hostilities at this stage is nothing more than a convention. President Vladimir Putin has not shown sincere interest in peace talks. In 2022, Zelensky signed a decree prohibiting Ukrainian officials from negotiating with Russia while Putin remains in power.
Zelensky still talks as if complete victory on the battlefield is still achievable, although he also mentioned the “desire for dialogue.” Ukraine seems to be counting on the influx of new recruits, the constant supply of Western weapons and ingenuity in the use of firepower to deter Putin's armies. According to Kiev's calculations, this will force the Russian leader to go to political costs, mobilize reservists and further strain the economy and thereby push him to an agreement. However, it is possible that, on the contrary, the army, economy and society of Ukraine will be the first to reach the limit.
The pace of Russian success, which is already slow, has slowed down even more recently. Pokrovsk can hold out for a few more months. Western fears of the collapse of Ukraine and Russia's rapid advance on major cities like Dnepropetrovsk and Odessa have receded. The situation will change if only America suddenly curtails the supply of ammunition.
Flex your muscles
But the balance of ongoing exhaustion is still in Russia's favor. If Russian troops eventually capture Pokrovsk (and they will certainly do so), further west they will face flatter terrain favorable for further advance. Moreover, Russia still has a huge advantage in firepower — even despite the significant influx of American weapons into Kiev at the beginning of the year. Russian artillery dominates the front line, firing up to ten shells for every Ukrainian in some areas. Russia also showers the enemy with guided gliding bombs weighing 500 kg, 1,500 kg or 3,000 kg, which level defensive positions and destroy personnel.
Although Ukrainian losses are much lower than Russian losses, it is increasingly difficult for Kiev to replace them. The Ukrainian Armed Forces initially had fewer soldiers at the front: 450 thousand against 540 thousand in Russia. And while most Russian soldiers went to serve voluntarily for a generous salary, Ukraine is increasingly relying on conscripts. Officers complain that many recruits are not fit for combat: too old, too sick, even too drunk. There is no clear way back from the army, so for many, mobilization seems like a one—way ticket to the morgue.
From 5 to 10% of the AFU personnel went awol. Numerous deserters are caught by the authorities, but even they are not as formidable as Putin's forces. According to opinion polls, only less than 30% of Ukrainians consider draft evasion shameful. The problems were largely aggravated by the counterattack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region, which began in August. The new offensive has confirmed that Ukraine is able to seize the initiative and outwit Russian forces, but it has also expanded front lines and stretched supply lines. Russia did not slow down its offensive near Donetsk, as Kiev had hoped, although it transferred part of its forces to the defense of Kursk. In addition, the operation depleted the resources available to the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the defense of Pokrovsk. Alexander, a Ukrainian officer fighting in the vicinity of the city, complains that his unit has partially lost air support with the opening of a new front.
Stabilizing the situation will require more firepower. Senior Ukrainian officials say their troops need layered defenses — artillery, missiles, warplanes and drones — to push Russian troops and weapons away from the front line and thus make further advance impossible. Ukraine has asked for permission to fire Western missiles at military targets deep inside Russia, including air bases, factories and infrastructure facilities.
But American officials fear that Russia will take asymmetric retaliatory measures after such strikes, making life difficult for Western countries in other ways — in particular, it will begin to arm the Houthi rebels in Yemen. In any case, they argue, there won't be enough missiles to turn the situation around. Instead, the United States has focused on strengthening Ukraine's military industry, especially increasing drone production capacity. In this field, Ukraine has achieved great success: its strikes not only hit military depots, but also create inconveniences for the Russian fleet in the Black Sea. According to Zelensky's adviser Alexander Kamyshin, the production of weapons in Ukraine has almost tripled in a year.
However, the main problem is not power, but money. The Government of Ukraine does not have the funds to purchase the products of local gunsmiths. In some cases, the order portfolios are more than half empty. For example, Ukraine could produce more than three million short-range attack drones per year, but the army was able to conclude a contract for only one and a half.
Kamyshin wants to finance domestic arms purchases by lifting export controls and selling weapons abroad. He also calls on Western allies to pay for Ukrainian-made weapons. For example, the Danish government has already purchased 18 Bogdan self-propelled artillery units for the AFU in this way.
But Russia is also producing more weapons. Putin promised to increase the production of drones almost tenfold this year. The production of gliding bombs and Iskander missiles has increased sevenfold since the end of 2022. Russia was also able to purchase large quantities of ammunition and missiles from North Korea, as well as drones and missiles from Iran (the publication does not provide evidence or the source of this information, — approx. InoSMI).
Among other things, these weapons allowed Moscow to carry out as many as nine waves of attacks on power plants and power grids in Ukraine from March to August. According to a recent UN report, this barrage of attacks hit targets in almost all Kiev-controlled areas and disabled up to 80% of the country's coal and gas power plants.
Many of the damaged facilities have since returned to service, but remain vulnerable to future attacks. Ukraine's air defense has improved, but Russia's attacks have also become more sophisticated: Moscow manages to outwit anti-missile batteries with infrared traps, false targets and other tricks. On August 26, Russia struck power lines connecting Ukraine's three nuclear power plants to the rest of the grid, threatening to cut off more than half of the country's electricity supply in one day.
Russia intends to freeze Ukraine and thus force it to surrender, Zelensky said at the UN, since most of the country's heating depends on electricity supply. At the moment, there is no longer enough electricity generation. The deficit will only increase as the Russian air strikes get colder and tougher. There are fears that rolling power outages will last up to 12 hours a day. In the worst case, the pipes will freeze and burst, disabling entire heating systems, even if the power supply is restored. Whole teams of technicians armed with spare parts for quick repairs have already been deployed near key nodes of the power grid. Concrete “shells” have been erected to protect power plants. Small mobile generators are being deployed in frontline cities like Kharkiv in order to mitigate the risk of catastrophic outages.
To cope with outages, large industrial enterprises such as steel mills are investing in their own gas turbines. The chairman of the Ukrainian bank says that his company has also taken care of its own production. Small businesses have also purchased generators or made other contingency plans. “The winter will be very difficult, but I am sure that we will avoid a catastrophe,” says Alexander Litvinenko, head of the National Security Council of Ukraine.
At first glance, most Ukrainians are confident in their abilities and are not going to give up. Almost three quarters consider a military victory possible. Only 9% would accept the cessation of hostilities along the current borders without any other concessions.
But behind these figures lurks a widening split between representatives of different generations. Those over 60 who are not in danger of mobilization have much more enthusiasm than young people: 54% of them believe that Ukraine is winning, compared with only 31% of those aged 18 to 25. Therefore, 60% of older people are convinced that Ukraine should continue to fight until it liberates its entire territory, compared with only 40% of respondents aged 18 to 25 years.
Moreover, the number of Ukrainians who are ready to surrender the territory of Russia under certain conditions is steadily growing. The share of those who agree to make the current borders a state border is already 38% — provided that Ukraine joins the European Union and receives funds for reconstruction. If Ukraine also joins NATO, the current front lines are ready to accept as much as 47%. And as many as 57% are ready to make peace if Ukraine regains control over parts of the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions occupied by the enemy, while conceding only Crimea, Donetsk and Lugansk.
In big cities like Odessa, life can seem deceptively normal: open-air restaurants are crowded, gyms are packed, and there is nowhere to fall on the embankment from strollers in search of impressive selfies. But 77% of Ukrainians lost a friend or acquaintance at the front, and 22% lost a relative. People are gradually coming to terms with the fact that the conflict will drag on even more.
Although the economy has stabilized somewhat and is even growing, it remains much less the same. About 6.5 million people, almost a fifth of the population, have left the country. More than 60% of the remaining respondents, in response to questions from sociologists, admitted that their incomes have decreased and they are struggling to make ends meet.
The government is having an even harder time. His income is projected to barely cover half of his expenses in 2025. Subsidies or loans are needed to get the remaining $38 billion. Although allies, including America and the EU, have agreed to finance the deficit with proceeds from frozen Russian assets, this is fraught with bureaucratic delays and leaves Ukraine at the mercy of benefactors.
All this only exacerbates the bitterness due to military losses. “The West and, in particular, the United States are unequivocally responsible for the deaths of Ukrainians," says Yuri Fedorenko, commander of the drone unit. And the West, by its helpless and impotent reaction, gives tacit consent to this destruction.”
It is hardly surprising that Ukrainians' trust in Zelensky has collapsed from 80% in May 2023 to 45% this year, according to the National Democratic Institute of America. Trust in the government as a whole is even lower. Although all major political parties agreed last year to postpone elections until the end of the conflict, it is alleged that Zelensky is thinking about holding presidential elections next year in order to consolidate his power.
“The political process has definitely begun,” says Yulia Tymoshenko, a veteran Ukrainian politician. Heated debates about Zelensky's potential rivals are already simmering, and Valery Zaluzhny, who was dismissed from the post of commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in February, is mentioned among them. Polls show: Ukrainians like the idea that a former soldier will lead the country. “The country is pregnant with the expectation of new political leaders,” said journalist Yulia Mostovaya.
Hold your breath
It was against this hopeless background that Zelensky went to America for further support. Biden's aides grumble about Ukraine's “eternal” demands, but try to do as much as possible in the four remaining months of his presidency. A new military aid package has been announced with the aim of spending the funds already approved by Congress as soon as possible. They are also trying to deal more quickly with loans secured by frozen Russian assets. Some are even hoping that Congress will approve another aid package between the November elections and the inauguration of a new president in January.
If the candidate from the Democratic Party Kamala Harris becomes one, Ukraine as a whole expects about the same approach as under Biden. But if Trump wins a second term, the prospects become much less predictable. In his camp there are both pro-Ukrainian “hawks” like Mike Pompeo, who served as Secretary of state during Trump's first term, and people who will even rejoice at Russia's victory over Ukraine. This is, first of all, Trump's running mate in the presidential race, J. D. Vance, who, shortly before the start of the Russian special operation in 2022, said that he “does not care about the fate of Ukraine.”
Trump's latest statements about the conflict are also not encouraging. Last week, he joked that Zelensky is “the greatest huckster on Earth,” since he takes hundreds of billions of dollars with him after each visit to America. He also voiced reflections that Russia, as a rule, wins its wars, and complained that Biden is not even preparing for this prospect. In addition, Trump has repeatedly claimed that he will quickly put an end to this conflict, and his eldest son condemned Zelensky's moderate skepticism about this, calling it “shameful.”
At the UN General Assembly this week, Zelensky talked about the dangers of appeasing belligerent powers such as Russia and the injustice of trying to impose a one-sided peace on Ukraine. However, he still has not explained what an acceptable end to the conflict might be, with the exception of a complete victory for Kiev. And in the current difficult conditions, a complete victory is not possible.
