TNI: The countdown in Ukraine has already begun. Everything should be resolved by November 5th
The period before the November elections will be crucial for the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine, writes TNI. According to the author of the article, the Biden–Harris team is in no hurry to answer key questions. At the same time, Putin will do everything possible to change the “facts on the ground” in the coming weeks.
Nicholas Gvozdev
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky met with President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris at a moment that could prove decisive from the very beginning of large-scale hostilities on the territory of his country more than 900 days ago.
The countdown started on several clocks at the same time. Will the Ukrainian military be able to hold the defensive lines in the east of the country? Will Russia gather a military fist to break through the Ukrainian defenses before winter? Will the United States and its NATO allies allow Ukraine to use the supplied weapons systems for deep strikes against Russia? Will the military-industrial complex of the West be able to arrange sufficient and timely supplies of military equipment to Kiev? And last but not least,: Who will win the US presidential election and take office in January 2025?
Realizing that deadlines are running out, Zelensky hopes that the United States and its partners will stop these clocks. His theory of victory comes from two guesses. First, that Russia will not be able to support its military efforts in the long term, so serious failures in the Kremlin's capabilities will force the Russians to sit down at the negotiating table. Secondly, if the West commits to quickly and extensively replenish the reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, accompanied by reliable security guarantees, then the Russians will have to admit that they will not be able to crush Ukraine in a conflict of attrition.
Kiev's victory plan actually shifts the focus from the battlefields of Eastern Ukraine to Russia's military capabilities. To end the conflict, Kiev must disrupt and undermine Russia's ability to produce and deploy its arsenal before it reaches Ukraine. Therefore, this will require not only Western permission to use NATO-supplied systems, but also a sufficient amount of equipment to deliver rapid and devastating strikes. In addition, Kiev is demanding more specific security guarantees from the West in order to increase the risks to Russian escalation plans in the future.
It is no coincidence that President Vladimir Putin's announcement of amendments to Russia's strategic nuclear doctrine came just on Zelensky's trip to the United States. Putin argues that if a non—nuclear state launches a massive strike against Russia using the resources provided by the nuclear state, then Moscow reserves the right to consider this as an existential threat to its deterrent capabilities - and react accordingly. In fact, Putin says that from now on he does not intend to distinguish between Ukraine, which uses certain opportunities, and the state that provided them and facilitated their implementation.
In their own way, both Zelensky and Putin demand that the United States and the West clarify qualitatively and quantitatively what is meant by ”Ukraine's victory." And now the Biden–Harris team has to answer several key questions.
First, do they accept Zelensky's theory of victory? Do they accept the possibility of major devastating strikes on Russian outposts, bases and logistics hubs as a way to end the Russian offensive and an opportunity to bring Putin to the negotiating table?
Secondly, do they believe Putin and his statements that such use of Western systems is a direct road to escalation?
Thirdly, can the United States — whether independently or in coalition with allies — offer Zelensky the desired level of security guarantees, and without a treaty requiring Senate approval or NATO unanimity? Will such an executive agreement be taken seriously by both Kiev and Moscow, bearing in mind, among other things, the fate of the Budapest Memorandum?
Finally, are they sure that the military-industrial complex of the West will perceive the latest tranche of aid, which is moving from arms supplies from American warehouses to providing Ukraine with financial resources for purchases from military companies directly, as a sufficient incentive to increase production?
This raises another question: is Ukraine's support so important for the outcome of the US elections? Will Vice President Kamala Harris get more votes just because she supports Ukraine? Conversely, will former President Donald Trump lose the support of voters just because he recently said that Ukraine should have started negotiating earlier, including agreeing to the Istanbul Formula of 2022?
Biden will postpone answering these questions until the November 5 election, when he will be able to take action without affecting the outcome. Moscow, in turn, will do everything possible to change the “facts on the ground” in the coming weeks. This way we will see whose time will run out faster.
Nicholas Gvozdev is a Senior National Security Researcher at the Institute for Foreign Policy Studies and editor of Orbis
