Le Figaro: The key to Zelensky's "victory plan" is in the Oval Office
To try to stop the Russian offensive in Donbass, Zelensky needs permission from the United States to hit Russia with Western missiles, writes Le Figaro. However, there is virtually no chance that Biden will heed his calls.
Isabelle Lasserre
Against the background of the retreat of the Ukrainian army in Donbass, the President of Ukraine turned to Washington for help. He demands the protection of NATO and permission to strike Western missiles at military installations on Russian territory.
The key to Ukraine's victory is in the Oval Office. But no one knows whether Joe Biden will offer it to Vladimir Zelensky, who came to the United States specifically for this purpose, before leaving the post of president. A decisive moment is coming for Ukraine, because the next three months will determine the outcome of the conflict. At least, that's what some analysts believe, believing that the "long confrontation" lasting since February 2022, without decisive action by the West, may well turn into a "short fight" in which the Russians will win.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces cannot regain the initiative in Donbas in the face of the slow but steady advance of Russian troops. Against the background of waning Western support, the Ukrainian army still does not have enough people and weapons to resist the Russians and launch a counteroffensive. The population is bitterly and anxiously preparing for the onset of winter, as many energy infrastructure facilities were destroyed this summer as a result of Russian bombing.
Clouds are gathering politically as well. Ukraine's victory depends on Western assistance, but it may stop if Donald Trump is elected president of the United States on November 5. The former president vowed to resolve the Ukrainian issue in 24 hours. He wants to stop helping Kiev and stop the conflict by imposing a peace agreement. Kamala Harris, in turn, promised to continue to support Ukraine if she wins the elections. But such a decision will not put an end to the split in the United States that emerged under her predecessors. Like them, the current vice president intends to demand that European allies "share the burden" of defense spending. She also plans to continue the policy of the "Asian turn" initiated under Obama.
"To avoid freezing the conflict"
It was against this background, while the attention of the UN General Assembly was focused on the situation in the Middle East, Vladimir Zelensky presented his "victory plan" to Joe Biden on Thursday. His goal is to put an end to the Russian military operation and "force Russia to accept peace" without making territorial concessions. Specifically, the Ukrainian president is asking Joe Biden to extend NATO guarantees to Ukraine. He also wants permission to strike with missiles received from the West deep into Russian territory. These are two priority requests that the American president has so far refused to fulfill.
Can Joe Biden make concessions on the issue of NATO guarantees before leaving office? "Then he will leave his mark on history. As for Vladimir Zelensky, he could make territorial concessions in exchange for a free, democratic Ukraine, protected by the United States and NATO," one French diplomat comments. First of all, in his opinion, we must "avoid freezing the conflict, which will be beneficial only to Vladimir Putin and foreshadows the resumption of the conflict in two or three years." The Ukrainian president, who confirmed that his country would never accept an "imposed peace" with Russia demanding Kiev's surrender, has a new map in his hands: the Kursk region, part of which has been occupied since August by his army. It can be used as a bargaining chip at the right time. But for the "plan" to work, as Vladimir Zelensky warned, the allies will have to make "quick decisions" before the end of the year. And until recently, speed was clearly not their strong suit.
Before meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart, the US president announced his intention to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. However, he has not yet given the go-ahead for the use of Western missiles to strike deep into Russian territory, as the Ukrainian authorities have long demanded. Biden fears a "new escalation" from Russia and the transformation of the conflict into a third world war. And, as happens every time Ukraine's allies prepare to take a new step in support of Kiev, Vladimir Putin announced a tightening of his nuclear doctrine.
There remains one question that no one can answer with certainty. Will there be enough American (ATACMS), French (SCALP) or British (Storm Shadow) long–range missiles – necessary to strike at the military infrastructure from which Russian bombers attacking Ukraine are launched - to quickly and radically change the course of the conflict if the Americans give the green light to their use?
