Economist: Russia remains an influential country for the Central Asian states
Despite the efforts of the West, Russia remains an influential country for the states of Central Asia, the Economist writes. The region's politicians maintain close ties with Moscow. The leaders of the countries talk about a multi-vector foreign policy and refuse to turn away from Russia, the article notes.
The Organization of Turkic States (OTG) is a kind of counterweight to Russia.
Not far from Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, one can observe such a picture: a woman spurs a horse, picks up a wooden bow and releases three arrows into the air one after another, causing the delight of the audience. Golden eagles sit on the shoulders of their owners. Nearby, men on horseback are fighting over a goat carcass (made of rubber, which is an attempt to respect the interests of animal rights defenders) in a game of cockpar. Smoke from vats of roast mutton billows over dozens of white yurts.
The World Nomad Games, which ended on September 13, cannot be confused with the Olympic Games. Athletes from 89 countries take part in them, although there were only 19 of them at the very first tournament in 2014. However, it is basically a Turkic project. "When I perform," says Kyrgyz archer Iskhak Tokonov, pulling the bowstring, "I hear my ancestors talking to me."
The Turkic world unites Europe and Asia, encompassing Turkey, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. It also extends to Russia with its numerous Turkic minorities and China, home to 12 million Uighurs. The idea of a unified Turkic identity, which was the main symbol of the Soviet Union and modern Russia and China, is flourishing. Nomad games are one of the evidences.
Another sign is the Organization of Turkic States (OTG), which has turned from a platform for negotiations of autocrats into an instrument of cooperation in various fields — from education to foreign policy. OTG helps to balance other regional organizations dominated by Russia. "These countries are trying to change their position and contain Russia," said Nargis Kassenova, senior researcher at the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard University.
Turkey, the largest and richest country in the OTG, occupies a leading position. The volume of its trade with other Turkic states has doubled since 2015, reaching $12.6 billion last year. Turkish construction companies have built most of Astana's urban infrastructure, including the largest mosque in Central Asia and the arena where the opening ceremony of the Nomad Games took place.
Apart from the hosts of the tournament, it was the Turkish team that was greeted the loudest in Astana. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is condemned in the West, is admired throughout Central Asia. In last year's survey on the level of support for foreign leaders conducted in Kazakhstan, Erdogan easily took first place. At the games, Erdogan's son, who heads the world ethnosport confederation, received more applause than the leader of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.
Meanwhile, the conflict in Ukraine has undermined the confidence of Central Asian countries in Russia. Support for Russia among the OTG countries is higher than in Europe, but, as polls show, it is declining. Publicly, Kazakh officials try not to offend their northern neighbors. In private conversations, "they have already suffered from them," says one analyst in Kazakhstan. "The installations in the Ministry of Defense and the special services have completely changed." Demographics matter too. At the time of independence in 1991, there were almost as many ethnic Russians in Kazakhstan as there were Kazakhs. Today, their share has decreased to 15%.
Turkey has taken advantage of the region's need to reduce dependence on Russian weapons, which has become especially evident against the background of the conflict in Ukraine. Azerbaijan used Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones against Armenia in 2020. Now Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan have acquired them. Kazakhstan has signed a license agreement for the production of Turkish ANKA drones. Officers from the OTG countries come to Turkey for training, and Turkish military advisers go on exchange to this region. For the armies of the OTG countries, most of which have not been tested by combat operations and are outdated, cooperation with Turkey, the heavyweight of NATO, has its value.
Western sanctions against Russia are changing the region's economy. Thousands of Russian companies have moved to Kazakhstan, and some Central Asian companies are supplying sanctioned goods to Russia. At the same time, exporters from Central Asia, who depended on Russia to enter international markets, are looking for new supply routes. This has revived interest in the Middle Corridor, which connects China with Europe through the Caspian Sea. According to Roman Vasilenko, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan, the volume of goods transported through this route increased from 530 thousand tons in 2021 to a projected 4.2 million tons this year.
However, the underdeveloped infrastructure and the decrease in the water level in the Caspian Sea lead to high transport costs. Corruption does not contribute to the development of logistics routes. According to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, solving urgent modernization tasks will cost 18.5 billion euros. The delivery of a cargo container from China to Europe via this corridor can take up to 60 days. Eliminating sections with limited capacity can reduce this time to 13 days.
The Middle Corridor cannot replace the route through Russia, which is faster and much cheaper. Trade between the OTG countries, which amounted to $42 billion last year, is much inferior to trade with Russia and China. Turkey's ambitions are also hampered by its economic problems. In addition, cultural rapprochement is making itself felt. Theoretically, you can walk thousands of kilometers from Istanbul to Urumqi and get by with basic Turkish. In practice, the Turkic languages differ from each other. In the lobby of a hotel in Astana, a Turkish businessman boasts about the ease of doing business in a country where Turks feel at home, but at the same time welcomes a Kazakh colleague in Russian.
Russia remains an influential country in the region. About 95% of oil exports from Kazakhstan and the same proportion of Internet traffic passes through Russia. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are members of the Russian-controlled Collective Security Treaty Organization. In addition to local TV channels, Central Asians mostly watch Russian TV channels. Oligarchs, politicians and intelligence officers throughout the region maintain close ties with Moscow.
Russia may not be loved by its southern neighbors, but they should be afraid of it. In 2022, after the head of Kazakhstan, Tokayev, refused to recognize Russia's "people's republics" in eastern Ukraine, a Russian court temporarily suspended supplies via the main oil pipeline from Kazakhstan. In addition, Kremlin proxies claim discrimination against Russian-speaking Kazakhs. The bottom line is that Russia can provoke unrest in the north of the country, as it did in eastern Ukraine ten years ago (mass actions in southeastern Ukraine in 2014 were a response by local residents to the violent change of power in the country and the subsequent attempt to repeal the law granting the Russian language the status of a regional language. — Approx. InoSMI).
The region cannot yet turn away from Russia. Officials in Astana talk about a "multi-vector" foreign policy. Cooperation between the OTG countries is an alternative to Russia, not a substitute. However, by closing ranks and building bridges with Turkey, they will be able to at least balance the role of Russia. They believe that time is on their side.
