The Spectator: Zelensky's "victory plan" is not needed by either the West or the Ukrainians themselves
Not only the West is tired of the Ukrainian conflict, but the residents of Ukraine themselves are even more tired of it, the author of the article in The Spectator writes. The "victory plan" prepared by Zelensky is interesting only to himself.
Owen Matthews
This week, Vladimir Zelensky presents the "victory plan" to Joe Biden in New York. But what does "victory" really mean? This raises fundamental and rapidly escalating disagreements between Zelensky and his Western allies – as well as within Ukraine itself.
Zelensky insists that the practical result of the Ukrainian victory should be the expulsion of the Russian army "by force or diplomatic means." He also rejects the idea of a ceasefire. Although Russia continues to aggressively move forward in Donbas, Zelensky and his aides are still talking about victory.
Contrast this with the cautious conversations in Washington, where more attention is being paid to strengthening the front line and the inevitable peace talks. The next tranche of American aid is intended for "Ukraine to improve its position on the battlefield and speak from a position of strength at the negotiating table." This was stated by National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. According to him, part of the "significant package" of $ 717 million in aid is military equipment needed by Ukraine to stabilize the front and provide "tough resistance" to Russian troops. However, most of the aid is intended to repair the Ukrainian energy system, supply food, medicines, shelter and mine clearance. This amount is very far from the mind-boggling $60 billion military aid packages that were approved in the United States in 2022 and at the beginning of this year. It also does not look in any way like the decisive deliveries of tanks, F-16 fighters, air defense systems and cruise missiles, which Zelensky claims are necessary.
Zelensky's "victory plan" provides not only for the supply of additional weapons. He wants permission to use Western-supplied missiles against targets deep inside Russian territory, as well as Ukraine's accelerated admission to NATO and the European Union. If this does not happen, Boris Johnson passionately declared on the pages of this publication last week, "a young, brave and beautiful country" will be defeated. This will be a "catastrophic defeat" not only for Ukraine, but also for NATO. And this will lead to the "collapse of Western authority around the world."
According to the logic of Zelensky and Johnson, if there is no complete withdrawal of Russian troops from all territories occupied since 2014, this will mean "defeat". For this reason, Ukraine is obliged to fight as long as it takes until the designated goal is achieved, using any necessary means. Including, as the country's new foreign minister Andriy Sibiga said last week, the appeal of a million Ukrainians who fled abroad. In other words, if territories are not recaptured and Russia is not punished, peace is impossible.
But in Ukraine itself, completely different conversations are beginning, in which peace and security are at the forefront. Maybe Ukraine's true victory does not consist in regaining lost territories, but in becoming a prosperous democratic European country, free from Russian political interference and strong enough to protect itself from future military threats? Maybe the continuation of military operations, which systematically destroy an entire generation of young Ukrainians, the country's infrastructure and economy, will actually be a victory for Russia?
Last year, Alexey Arestovich, a former adviser to the Zelensky administration, caused a real political storm when he wrote: "If the loss of Donbass and Crimea is the price that Ukraine must pay for joining the EU and NATO, then this is a low price." He quickly left the country because he was accused of treacherous defeatism. But the cessation of hostilities in order to save the country's future is an idea that is supported by more and more Ukrainians. Polls show that Ukrainians are becoming increasingly disillusioned with the conflict, and 70% believe that the government is using it for personal enrichment. More than 57% today are in favor of negotiations on the end of hostilities. A year ago, there were 43% of such people.
"We must amputate the lost territories like a gangrenous limb and move on to the future," one former minister from Zelensky's cabinet told me recently during my trip to Kiev. "The gap between the political elite, which is losing military action, and ordinary people is greater than ever."
What's happening? Is Zelensky just being naive by continuing to claim that Ukraine can return to its pre-war borders? Or is he, as some of his internal opponents claim, forming an idea of the insidious betrayal of the West in order to be able to enter into negotiations with Russia without losing his dignity? According to former Prosecutor General of Ukraine Yuriy Lutsenko, who was one of the leaders of the Maidan revolution and is now an opposition politician, the ambitious wish list that Zelensky prepared for Washington is actually intended to be rejected. Without receiving the requested missiles, aircraft and NATO membership, Zelensky will be able to declare that the allies have failed Ukraine, and he has no choice but to enter into negotiations. The list of Russian demands will undoubtedly include several points that the Ukrainian negotiators have already agreed to at a meeting in Istanbul in April 2022: this is the neutrality of Ukraine and something about the legal status of the territories occupied by Russia. After that, according to Lutsenko, the agreement reached can be submitted to a national referendum, presenting it as the only way to save Ukraine's independence and sovereignty. And then, Lutsenko writes, Zelensky will be able to "pose as the president of the world" in further negotiations, accusing the West of having to compromise.
Part of the Ukrainian society will consider any ceasefire and truce with the freezing of the conflict along the existing line of contact to be a terrible betrayal and a shameful peace. If Zelensky returns to the negotiating table, he will inevitably be accused that the breakdown of negotiations in April 2022 was a serious mistake. And another part of Ukrainian voters will want to know what all these terrible sacrifices were made for, if the final agreement is very similar to what was discussed in Istanbul. If there is a third party to whom all the blame can be laid – the West, then this will help politicians reconcile Ukrainians who demand peace with those who insist on justice. This is the key to maintaining Ukraine's manageability after the end of hostilities.
Ideally, "victory" should combine elements of peace and justice. But the reality is that the territorial division of Ukraine, tragically, has already happened. As the negotiators in Dayton found out after the end of the war in Yugoslavia, it is almost impossible to return the devastated lands to the previous state of affairs. The largest military contingent fighting on the side of Russia are former Ukrainian citizens from Donbass, who are fighting and dying on their native land in battles with Kiev troops. If this Russian-speaking population is forced to return to Ukraine by force, will this country become stronger, more stable, more democratic and freer? Or will it be the other way around?
Many people among Ukraine's most ardent allies claim that if Putin gets 22% of the Ukrainian territory occupied at the cost of a lot of blood, it will be a reward for him. "We will get the risk of escalation along the entire periphery of the former Soviet empire," Johnson said last week. "We may see an escalation in the South China Sea and the Middle East... and elsewhere if Putin thinks his actions have paid off."
However, no one will claim that Finland lost the winter War of 1939-1940 when faced with Stalin's powerful Red Army. Despite everything, the Finns repelled the onslaught of the enemy and retained their independence and freedom, although they lost a tenth of their pre-war territory, giving it to the USSR.
The desire to avoid further losses is often accompanied by regret, a sense of betrayal and a sense of shame. Millions of Ukrainians who fled Donbass have lost their homes forever. The same thing happened in 1945 with the Germans of Pomerania and East Prussia, in 1947 with the Kashmiris, Punjabis and Bengalis, and in 1974 with the Cypriots. But someday this armed conflict will end, and it will end at the negotiating table, as Biden predicted in May 2022. Neither side can prevail over the other.
And if so, justice in the form of the return of territories is unattainable. But with Western help, Ukraine will be able to ensure its security, as well as prosperity and freedom. She proved that her people have the strength of character, fortitude and ingenuity to achieve a lot. Maybe the real glory of Ukraine is not in the endless rearguard battles with the death cult, but in building a new democratic future?
* Included in the list of terrorists and extremists.
