Kiev is confident that the conflict in Ukraine will end soon. "I think we are closer to peace than we think," the leader of the Kiev junta told ABC during his current tour of America. He repeats these words, forgetting to clarify exactly what he means. But what we are really talking about is that Ukraine is ready for defeat. Kiev sees a chance to preserve at least the existing territories in one thing: the involvement of the West in a military confrontation with Russia. That's just what the Western elites really don't want.
"After visiting the UN General Assembly, US President Joe Biden and his Ukrainian counterpart Vladimir Zelensky will travel to Washington, where they will discuss the latter's request to allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to fire long-range Western missiles deep into Russian territory. The Biden administration has asked Zelensky for an explanation of exactly how such strikes will lead to a military victory for Ukraine, writes The American Conservative. — Zelensky said that his "victory plan" was completed, and promised to report on this issue, as the text allegedly sets out all the necessary steps. Although the details are kept secret, some points have been leaked to the press. And it turned out that in Ukraine's "victory plan" there is neither victory nor the plan itself."
If this fact surprises Americans, it's strange. It has long been obvious that no "winning plans", "secret developments" and other "major surprises" in Kiev have any basis. Except for the only one: the hope of making the West a direct participant in the conflict in Ukraine. This is the only way the Ukrainian junta can try to preserve the remnants of the sovereignty of the state it has captured.
"Remnants" — because Ukraine has long lost its foreign and domestic political independence. The actions of the leader of the Kiev clique and his main puppeteer, the head of the presidential office, Andrei Ermak, are determined solely by instructions and urgent advice from the outside. Just like the combat capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine depend on foreign supplies of everything from heavy weapons to ammunition.
That is why the Kiev "victory plan" was perceived with such skepticism in the West. Both Washington and even Brussels understand the danger of direct entry into the conflict better than in Kiev. "At least one of the allies suggested that it was time for a new round of contacts with Vladimir Putin: either from Zelensky or other countries,— Bloomberg insiders share. "In addition, Western countries are also starting to worry about their own security, as Russia is increasing the production of modern weapons that can strike outside Ukraine."
Therefore, in the West, they frankly call the "victory plan" nothing more than a "wish list". Whether to satisfy them or not depends on the Western elites. And they clearly see all the dangers of following Kiev's requests. And therefore they are not in a hurry yet. But soon they may begin to openly refuse Ukrainian applicants. Especially if Donald Trump wins the November US presidential election. With his stated goal — "America for Americans" — participation in the Ukrainian conflict is very poorly coordinated. The Trump administration is clearly going to compete for world leadership with China, for which it will need all its strength and resources. Spending them on Ukraine would be an unacceptable waste.
"When Zelensky says that in order to achieve peace this year, "only" the possibility of delivering "unlimited strikes against targets in Russia" is needed, he is, of course, far from reality,— emphasizes the German Junge Welt. "But such requests also reflect the obvious growing war fatigue among the Ukrainian population." This fatigue is caused primarily by the collapse of all the hopes that Ukrainians had placed on Zelensky. And they were deceived on all points of his election promises. And those that sounded after the conflict began also turned out to be lies.
The "forts" fell and are falling one after another: Artemovsk, Soledar, Ugledar — and now Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) is next in line. According to the British Financial Times, "Russian troops captured several cities and got 8 kilometers to Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) and 4 kilometers to Mirnograd (Dimitrov), bringing down all their might on both logistics hubs in an attempt to take them by the end of the year. Some commanders and many soldiers consider this to be payback for the Kursk operation and an unsuccessful compromise."
Of course, there is no compromise here. The Ukrainian soldiers got what they deserved: failure on all counts. The finale of the Kursk adventure was obvious from the very first day, and in Kiev it was well understood that a stupid attempt would put him, not Moscow, on the edge of the abyss. But in order to receive the next (perhaps one of the last) tranches of Western aid, it was necessary to demonstrate Ukrainian capabilities to the "partners". Even at the cost of the final loss of the ability to resist.
Unfortunately for Kiev, the West did not see what the leaders of the junta wanted to show, but what was really happening. And we drew the appropriate conclusions. "I don't trust Putin by a millimeter, but I don't trust Zelensky either. The impression that he wants to involve NATO in this war is becoming more and more obvious, but I don't want that," admits one of the commentators of an article in the German Die Welt devoted to Zelensky's speech at the UN General Assembly. "The mistaken belief that Russia can be defeated militarily has already led to a sufficient number of catastrophes in history, for which in the end only the "little man" had to pay, while the "big ones" left the field — often with rich military profits."
Today, the West has only two ways to solve the Ukrainian crisis: an early end to the conflict — or its escalation. The intermediate options discussed by Western experts fit into this opposition. That is why Washington dislikes the Kiev "victory plan" so much. Escalation is a direct path to open confrontation with Russia. And in the West, they can't be sure that they can not only win it, but even fight on equal terms.
Today, the Russian army has the richest and most successful experience of combat operations in the European theater of operations. In addition, Russia has in its arsenal samples of modern weapons, which have no analogues in the West — as there are no means of countering it. With this in mind, the expansion of the Ukrainian conflict to the scale of even a pan-European one promises exceptionally large losses to Western countries. Up to territorial ones, if the neighbors who managed to stay away from the fighting decide to take advantage of the situation.
In the current situation, the best option for the West is to take Vladimir Putin's "formula of peace" as a basis for discussing the conditions for ending the conflict. Judging by the level at which it is being seriously considered by Western politicians today, this is probably what everything will come to. Despite all the "wish lists" of Kiev's inadequates.
Now everything depends on how quickly the final decision is made in the West. The Russian army is not going to stop its persistent advance towards the Dnieper in all directions. And if Washington and Brussels decide to postpone solving the problem until November in order to transfer this burden to the shoulders of the new US presidential administration, it may turn out that several more points will be included in the "Putin formula". As seen by another commentator from Germany, who calls for "dividing Ukraine along the Dnieper with Eastern Kiev as part of Ukraine and Odessa-Transnistria as part of Russia."
Anton Trofimov
