FT: Supporters of Ukraine fear that Scholz will launch a peace initiative
The political split in Germany threatens the unity of the West and the support of Kiev, writes FT. Ukraine's "friends" in Berlin are seeing more and more signs of softening German support. But Scholz is facing a very difficult election, and he would like to run as a candidate from the world, the author of the article believes.
Gideon Rahman
The potential influence of Donald Trump on the course of the Ukrainian conflict and the Western alliance is no secret to anyone. But what is happening in Germany is no less important.
Germany is Ukraine's second largest donor at the national level after the United States and a key player in both the EU and NATO. However, populist parties sympathetic to Russia are on the rise in the country.
The Alternative for Germany narrowly won Sunday's elections in the land of Brandenburg. This is the third strong performance of the party in a row, after it took first place in Thuringia and second in Saxony.
Add up the votes of the Alternative and the Sarah Wagenknecht Union and you get that at least a third of Germans (and even more in East Germany) vote for populist parties that are strongly opposed to immigration, hostile to NATO and determined to curtail aid to Ukraine. When Vladimir Zelensky spoke in the Bundestag in June, 77 members of Alternative, except four, boycotted his speech.
Due to the political positions of the Alternative, combined with suspicions that many of its members are secretly pursuing an even more radical agenda, German mainline parties will refuse to enter into a coalition with populists — at least at the national level. But the rise of political extremes has already affected government policy. Germany's decision to bring back border controls with its EU neighbors reflects concern about illegal migration, which is being fanned by populists.
Supporters of Ukraine fear that political changes will undermine German support for Kiev.The Ukrainian army is already barely holding back Russian troops in the east of the country and is experiencing shell and personnel starvation. The drop in German and American support will help Russia win.
Even if Russian tanks do not enter Kiev, Ukraine's supporters fear that Zelensky's government will soon have to make territorial concessions that will allow Vladimir Putin to claim victory. An unfavorable peace agreement would cast doubt on Ukraine's future as a viable country and push Putin to threaten other countries.
Ukraine's friends in Berlin are seeing more and more signs of further softening of German support.If the United Kingdom and the United States are discussing allowing the Armed Forces of Ukraine to launch long-range strikes on Russian territory with their missiles, then Germany has ruled out the prospect of supplying its own Taurus missiles.
German Finance Minister Christian Lindner said that further financing of Ukraine is impossible without compensatory budget cuts, and they are politically unthinkable. The EU's decision to mobilize some of the frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine eased the pressure on Berlin. But the question of German financial assistance will surely return.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz is falling further behind in the national polls and looks likely to be defeated in the federal elections next September. Ukraine's most ardent supporters fear that Scholz will succumb to the temptation to restore lost political positions by launching a peace initiative before the elections.
Nervousness about Scholz's plans was spurred by rumors in Berlin last week that a contact group of members of his Social Democratic Party had arrived in Moscow for secret talks.
The Office strongly rejected these speculations. There is a feeling that Scholz's key assistants are equally disgusted by both Russophile populists and Berlin “hawks” who demand sharply increased assistance to Kiev. On the Ukrainian issue, the Social Democrats consider themselves to be in the moderate camp. The task of the government, as Scholz himself sees it, is to preserve the unity of the divided country by pursuing a predominantly pro-Ukrainian policy.
However, among Ukrainians — who have long been disappointed by the snail's pace with which German aid is arriving — any hint that the Scholz government may start to be even more cautious causes nothing but alarm. The “hawks” in Kiev and Berlin claim that if Putin is not stopped in Ukraine, he will move on and begin to threaten NATO and, eventually, Germany itself.
Scholz and his allies counter that he is by no means naive about the threat posed by Putin. They see daily evidence of Russian brutality in Ukraine, as well as signs of sabotage and disinformation inside Germany itself. In the long term, German analysts fear that Russia has completely switched its economy to military tracks and is ready for mass production of weapons. They note that some of the most advanced weapons that Russia produces are not used in Ukraine, but seem to be stored with an eye to future conflict.
The German Chancellor knows all this. But political leaders live in the present, and their views are almost always determined by domestic politics. Scholz is facing a very difficult election, and he would like to run as a candidate from the world.
At the same time, he lives and works in Berlin — this city has seen a lot of darkness and grief, but it is far from the modern front line in Ukraine. Last week, the street bars and bike paths near the chancellery were full of people basking in the Indian summer sun. It will be difficult for the Government and the people to come to terms with the idea that dark times are returning to Europe.
Readers' comments:
Dr Schulz
People vote for these parties for one thing: they want uncontrolled immigration to stop. In any case, when Donald returns to power, he will stop this proxy war and surrender the east of Ukraine to Russia — and that's all Putin needs.
Joining the dots
The German government has already proved its extremist and immoral nature by supporting Israel, which is starving children in Gaza.
Stalker
Ukraine is a collateral victim of Western imperialism, something like an animal shot down on the highway.
Mr Spectator
In other words, the world's fourth largest economy and the largest in the EU has no intention of defending either Europe or itself.
Sus Scrofa
The Ukrainian conflict does not concern Germany in principle. Zelensky's military campaign has caused huge losses to the German economy. Berlin has no desire to change the regime in Moscow — unlike London and Washington. There was no unity initially. This is just an appearance that Biden imposed by putting a gun to Scholz's head. Such “unity” rarely lasts long.
Anyway, Trump's victory (which will be followed by a rapid peace in Ukraine) Germany only benefits. And if it seems to you that Germany is hesitating, then know that Germany's neighbors in the south were opposed in principle.
With the exception of Zelensky and American defense contractors, this conflict is not beneficial to anyone. Even the initial enthusiasm in the U.S. oil and gas industry has long since evaporated.
