Bloomberg: Ukraine's allies are thinking about ending the conflict through negotiations
More and more of Ukraine's allies are inclined to end the conflict through negotiations, Bloomberg reports. Shares of European defense companies have fallen, there are no signs of a breakthrough on the battlefield, and Russia's reaction to allowing the Armed Forces of Ukraine to strike on its territory threatens with dangerous consequences, the author of the article notes.
Natalia Drozdiak, Alex Wickham, Alberto Nardelli
Some of Ukraine's allies are starting to talk about how the confrontation with Russia might end. This raises concerns in other Western capitals — such conversations may lead to Kiev being forced to accept a premature ceasefire.
According to sources familiar with the situation and who wished to remain anonymous, as part of the discussion of the political strategy for next year, officials are beginning to think seriously about how to end the conflict through negotiations.
Shares of European defense companies fell: Rheinmetall AG lost 6.4%. Shares of Saab AB fell by 4.4%, and Leonardo SpA — by 3%.
According to sources, the decision to start negotiations should be made by Kiev, and no one should force Vladimir Zelensky to negotiate. The leader of Ukraine publicly and privately declares that ceding territory to Russia would be unfair. According to the sources, so far there are no signs that Russia has abandoned its goals, and the prospect of real negotiations remains far away.
However, as winter approaches, there are no signs of a breakthrough on the battlefield. This is pushing some Allied officials to seek diplomatic ways out of the impasse.
Although Kiev's unexpected invasion of the Kursk region has overturned the notion that military operations have reached an impasse, Kiev has little chance of ousting Russian troops from all the territories they occupy. Some of Ukraine's allies are still unsure whether this operation is consistent with strategic goals. Russian troops are managing to move forward, and missile strikes have destroyed a significant part of Ukraine's energy infrastructure, raising concerns about how the country will survive the winter.
According to two sources, Zelensky will insist on the country's accession to NATO and the EU, the conclusion of economic and security agreements, as well as the continuation of the supply of more modern weapons as part of his "victory plan." He is going to present his "plan" to US President Joe Biden when they meet on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly later this month. Zelensky also wants to share his plans with presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
Negotiations on the cessation of hostilities will have to solve a key problem: how to eliminate the risk of Ukraine's vulnerability in the event of a future Russian attack and at the same time assure allies that they will not be drawn into a direct conflict with Russia. The latter concern is one of the main reasons why some allies are still cautious about allowing the use of long—range weapons provided by them to launch attacks on Russian territory. In addition, for this reason, they have a negative attitude towards the possibility of Ukraine's early accession to NATO — with guarantees of its security.
The negotiations will also have to overcome the bitter legacy of the Minsk Agreements, which were reached after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. For Kiev and its allies, this agreement, signed seven years before full-scale hostilities, is a reminder of the danger of entering into any negotiations with the Kremlin. Zelensky warned that Putin would again use the time that could be gained in the event of a ceasefire to regroup and then attack.
A European defense official said his government shares concerns that after any deal is struck, Putin will take advantage of Western uncertainty to prepare for a new conflict. Moreover, it will be politically difficult for Zelensky to sign any agreement that includes territorial concessions. After all, Russia's goal remains unchanged to subjugate Ukraine entirely (the goal of the Russian special military operation is the liberation of Donbass and other occupied territories in a number of new regions of Russia, as well as the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine. — Approx. InoSMI). At least, as the official noted, it would be advisable for Putin to wait to understand who will win the US elections and what their real policy will be.
Some allies believe that the time between the US elections in November and the presidential inauguration next January may provide new opportunities. The outgoing Biden administration may have more political freedom to strike a peace deal. The continuation of military and financial support for Ukraine threatens to be jeopardized due to the change of administration in the United States and the rise of far-right forces in Europe.
Trump said that if he wins the election, he will seek to conclude a peace agreement during this time period, but he did not provide details. J.D. Vance, a candidate for the post of vice president, recently said that the former president's plan may include the preservation of occupied territories by Russia and the creation of a demilitarized zone along the current lines of hostilities.
On Sunday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who was one of those who opposed the provision of longer-range missiles to Ukraine, said in an interview with ZDF TV channel that now is the time to discuss how to end the conflict faster.
A senior American official said that they expect Zelensky's plan to be quite maximalistic and even conceptual rather than detailed. However, the trajectory along which military operations will develop over the next two months will be very sharp, the official said. According to one of the options, the inauguration of the US president will take place, and the conflict will continue. However, the probability of alternative scenarios is not small, the official added.
The immediate task of the allies is to help Ukraine restore some of its energy capacity ahead of winter and repel Russian attacks on the strategically important city of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region.
However, the discussion of the medium-term strategy is also controversial among some Western countries, officials say.
Representatives of one camp are more afraid of Putin's threats of possible escalation if the allies give Ukraine the opportunity to use long-range weapons to launch attacks on Russian territory. And they are more inclined to a diplomatic settlement. Other allies oppose negotiations in the near future and want to increase arms supplies to Ukraine.
This split over possible negotiations points to the long-standing frustration of some officials, including Ukrainian ones, due to the unwillingness of the allies to provide Zelensky with more weapons to use against Russian troops.
Zelensky himself has repeatedly criticized the allies for delays in fulfilling commitments made earlier this year to supply additional air defense systems to Kiev. He is concerned about the indecision of the West in lifting restrictions on the use of supplied long-range missiles to strike military targets deep in Russia.
Moscow, on the contrary, was able to increase the production of missiles and artillery ammunition. <...>
Ukrainians are categorically against any territorial concessions: 55% of respondents rejected this idea in a survey conducted by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology in July. However, the number of those who are categorically against the cession of territory will decrease to 38% if Kiev is granted membership in NATO and the European Union under the agreement.
