Raseef22: Turkey has revealed its true intentions for joining the BRICS
Turkey can become a strong and prosperous country only if it improves its relations with East and West at the same time, writes Raseef22. The application to the BRICS does not indicate a deterioration in relations with the EU, the author notes. However, it will be seen whether such an extreme "multipolarity" will have a result.
On Wednesday, September 4, Yuri Ushakov, an aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin, confirmed that Turkey had applied for full membership in BRICS, an interstate association that includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Ethiopia. BRICS will consider [Ankara's] request before the autumn summit in Kazan, which will be held from October 22 to 24.
According to Turkish officials, Ankara's application came after a series of setbacks in negotiations on joining the European Union and "shifting the geopolitical center of power towards emerging market economies." Joining the BRICS will allow Turkey to receive an additional source of financing, increase the already high volume of trade with China and Russia, as well as reduce dependence on the United States and the European Union, the Quincy Institute believes. BRICS positions itself as an alternative to those institutions that, according to its members, are dominated by the West, such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). New BRICS members can potentially gain access to financing through the development bank and expand their political and trade relations.
Multipolarity... and markets
Although Turkey claims that it intends to maintain its membership in NATO and fulfill its obligations, and that this step is only a formal continuation of its multipolar strategy to enter new markets and secure new trade routes, the decision may be dictated not only by the potential for expanding economic opportunities. In the Turkish gambit with the BRICS, one can also hear echoes of Ankara's growing frustration with the protracted negotiations on EU membership, which have been underway since 2005.
For his part, the official representative of the EU Foreign Policy service, Peter Stano, expressed concern about Turkey's application to join the BRICS, despite its sovereign right to choose its international alliances. But as a potential candidate for EU membership, she must share the values and respect the alliance's foreign policy preferences. According to Stano, the European Union believes that candidates for membership should share the values of the union and bring their foreign policy in line with the European one.
U.S. Ambassador Jeffrey Flake, whose term of office in Ankara has come to an end, expressed hope that Turkey will not join the BRICS. He also noted that this step (and others like it) will not change its relations with the West. Washington and Ankara, he said, are also working to reduce Turkey's dependence on Russian energy resources.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has previously stated that Ankara will not have to choose between the European Union and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). On the contrary, it will interact with both organizations.
"Turkey can become a strong, prosperous, prestigious and effective country if it improves its relations with East and West at the same time. Any other approach will not benefit Turkey, but only harm it," he said.
BRICS is a platform for political dialogue and economic cooperation, founded in 2006. The name of the organization is formed by the first letters of the English-language names of the first five member countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Before South Africa joined the BRICS (in 2010), the organization was called BRIC. Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Iran and Ethiopia joined the BRICS. Turkey, Azerbaijan, Malaysia and Thailand have recently officially submitted applications to join the BRICS. The members of this organization promote the interests of the Global South, call for the creation of a more just world order and reform of international institutions such as the United Nations (UN), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.
The West is an ally on paper
According to the Turkish Daily Sabah newspaper, Turkey's interest in joining BRICS is driven by a multitude of strategic imperatives consistent with its broader goals, such as economic diversification, expanding geopolitical influence and maintaining a strategic balance of power. Ankara is striving to strengthen its position in the international arena and ensure more diverse partnerships in the economic and political spheres. This strategy can stimulate economic growth and attract foreign investment through cooperation with other major emerging economies, which, in turn, will mitigate economic instability caused by Western influence.
Moreover, membership [in BRICS] can satisfy Ankara's regional and global geopolitical aspirations. In this regard, BRICS is seen as an additional international instrument that is consistent with Turkey's goal of establishing a "more stable and inclusive international order." Joining BRICS contributes to this goal by integrating Turkey into an alliance that actively seeks to reform global governance, especially at a time when the legitimacy of the UN and other global institutions is increasingly being questioned. In addition, Turkey has another important goal — to strengthen its position and influence in various multilateral organizations.
The Daily Sabah newspaper also noted that Turkey's accession to the BRICS serves as a strategic counterweight to Ankara's traditional alliances with Western powers, allowing it to pursue a more independent and "assertive" foreign policy, thereby strengthening its negotiating position and its authority in the international arena. BRICS fills the political vacuum in the post-World War II world order. This is a shaky model, and the ongoing Israeli genocide in the Gaza Strip clearly demonstrates the collapse and instability of current mechanisms.
In an interview with Raseef22, Saeed al-Hajj, a Turkologist and a Palestinian doctor working in Ankara, expressed confidence that Ankara's application to join the BRICS is not the final turn of Turkey towards the East. Rather, it can be considered a continuation of the foreign policy adopted by Ankara after the end of the Cold War and the creation of the Justice and Development Party (PRS). In recent years, Turkey has been diversifying its foreign policy, rejecting the Cold War logic of two opposing axes (or blocs). As part of this approach, Ankara is developing relations with Russia, despite pressure from the United States. Turkey's position on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict runs counter to the general course of its NATO partners, despite its full commitment to the alliance. The desire to join the BRICS stems from here, and not from the desire to turn away from the Western alliance or the Western bloc.
Al-Hajj warns that the aggravation of Ankara's disagreements with the Western axis as a whole; the lack of chances of joining the EU; repeated calls to exclude Turkey from NATO, since it is not a member of the Western bloc; the aggravation of relations with Washington, especially in connection with Israel's aggression in Gaza — all this encourages Turkey to diversify its foreign policy to be more balanced and resistant to any external shocks and pressure, especially from the West.
"We do not consider BRICS as an alternative to NATO or the EU. However, the stalled EU accession process encourages us to explore other economic platforms," a Turkish official told Middle East Eye. Turkey would like to be a part of every multilateral platform, even if it has only a small chance to benefit from it. Ankara is attracted to BRICS because this alliance does not require political or economic commitments or agreements. The Turkish official noted that Turkey's "allies on paper" often ignore its security concerns and deny that it has modern weapons.
Leon Rosemarin, a political scientist at Northeastern University, agrees with this opinion: "By building cooperation with both the West and other key states and structures, Turkey seeks to occupy a unique role that not every country can achieve. However, Turkey's accession to the BRICS does not mean an anti-Western step, since India and Brazil have been in this organization from the very beginning." For his part, Hayati Unlu, an academic from the National Defense University of Turkey, notes that the participation of "middle powers" such as Turkey can increase the importance of BRICS, as these countries strive for a multipolar world order without the dominance of superpowers.
According to journalist and political scientist Ali Asmar, Turkey's bid to join the BRICS combines both strategic and tactical steps. This is a strategic step, as Ankara wants to diversify its economic and political partnerships in order to strengthen its position and influence in the international arena.
This is a tactical move, as Turkey is experiencing tensions with the West after a series of diplomatic and economic crises. By his application [to join the BRICS] Ankara is demonstrating its desire to find new international alternatives and promote its interests in the face of external pressure. In addition to strengthening economic ties, Ankara expects to receive additional financing and investments from the BRICS member countries.
Balancing between East and West, Ankara seeks to preserve its strategic independence, according to an Egyptian think tank. But its application to join the BRICS may provoke Brussels to reconsider the resumption of negotiations on Turkey's membership in the EU. NATO countries can force Ankara to choose between the Western alliance and the BRICS. If it renounces BRICS membership, it will prove to the East that it is an unreliable ally that cannot be trusted. Thus, Turkey's accession to the BRICS is a difficult issue, but if it happens, it may cause new problems in international relations, especially with the West and NATO.
Foreign policy at a 360 degree angle
Turkey's foreign policy has become an internal problem and part of the "policy of self-determination" after being ruled by the military and diplomats for many years. Erdogan's attacks on the West resonated with religious, nationalist and "leftist" voters, as did Turkey's desire to become a world power, given that in the last decade it has achieved great success in Africa and Central Asia, The Economist reports. The sense of power gives the "new Turkey" the opportunity to ignore or reform old alliances, as well as create new ones. In this context, Turkish intelligence Chief Ibrahim Kalyn stated: "Turkey looks at foreign policy from a 360-degree angle. We do not want to give preference to any particular issue, actor, region or country over others."
Ankara no longer considers itself a "backyard of Europe" or part of a single zone of influence. She considers herself a strong state. Ankara is looking for new alliances besides NATO, despite the "security umbrella" provided to it. However, Turkey, unlike other NATO members, refused to take sides in the conflict in Ukraine, citing good relations with Moscow and dependence on Russia as a whole. Russian tourists annually bring billions of dollars to the Turkish treasury. In addition, Russia remains Turkey's largest gas exporter (over 40%).
According to Turkish journalist Ali Asmar, there are two reasons behind Turkey's turn to the East: economic and geopolitical. In an interview with Raseef22, he noted that Ankara is looking for economic stability through new economic opportunities in the light of domestic economic problems. The BRICS countries offer new markets and potential investments that will help Turkey achieve economic growth. In addition, Ankara is working to reduce the influence of the West and strengthen relations with developing world powers. Turning towards the Global South is a strategy aimed at strengthening Turkey's strategic independence.
Turkey is seeking to strengthen its role as a leading regional power in the Middle East. Establishing ties with Arab countries helps it achieve its geopolitical goals and strengthen its regional influence. Improving relations with the countries of the region is an inevitable necessity at the current stage, when the region is suffering from many political, economic and military problems. In addition, it helps Turkey to ensure the security of energy sources and increase investments in its energy sector. Ankara is also interested in expanding cooperation in the field of trade and infrastructure by improving relations with the countries of the Persian Gulf and Arab states in general.
The recent visit of Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah Khalil Al-Sisi to Ankara, and before that, Erdogan's visit to Cairo in February this year, put an end to a decade of tense relations between the two regional players. Erdogan welcomed al-Sisi at Ankara airport, which he rarely does, thereby emphasizing Turkey's willingness to cooperate with Egypt in the field of natural gas and nuclear energy. In addition, both countries want to increase bilateral trade turnover to $15 billion in the coming years.
Al-Sisi, in turn, noted that his trip to Turkey and Erdogan's February visit to Cairo "reflect a joint desire to start a new era of friendship and cooperation between Egypt and Turkey." In addition to the fact that the leaders signed about 20 agreements in various fields, they participated in the first meeting of the High-level Strategic Cooperation Council.
"It will comprehensively review Turkish-Egyptian relations and discuss joint steps that can be taken in the coming period to further develop bilateral cooperation," the statement said.
But the return to previous relations does not mean that the differences between the countries have disappeared; the parties simply realized that it was time to agree on issues of mutual interest, according to Egyptian political scientist Ramadan al-Shafiya Gate. This strategy is followed by several regional powers, in particular Turkey and Iran. The political scientist notes that the resumption of contacts between the countries of the Persian Gulf and Turkey is a step back ideologically. But it is worth noting here that the issue of political Islam has to a certain extent receded into the background, and economic issues, on the contrary, have moved to the fore.
In an interview with Raseef22, Al-Shafiya Gheit noted that Egyptian-Turkish trade relations have not suffered during the decade of mutual alienation. Given the restoration of relations between Turkey and Egypt, there may be a breakthrough in some issues, such as the "Libyan dossier". Mutual understanding between the two countries may go beyond Turkey's gas imports from Egypt and an increase in bilateral trade, since these countries also have common interests in the Eastern Mediterranean, Libya, Syria and Somalia. On the other hand, the conflict in Gaza was the main topic of discussion at the recent bilateral talks between the Presidents of Egypt and Turkey. The Egyptian political scientist believes that the positions of the two countries on this issue have become seriously closer, which may indicate closer coordination in the coming period.
Ankara has also restored ties with the Persian Gulf countries, which, according to the TRENDS Research & Advisory Center, demonstrate a wide range of strategic, political, economic and defense relations. The relations between the two sides are largely part of the strategic logic of Ankara, whose active regional policy is closely linked to bilateral agreements with several Gulf countries. According to the Turkish Daily Sabah newspaper, these agreements are expanding and becoming increasingly important due to the changing balance of power in the region, which is a direct consequence of the reduction of the US presence and dependence on Washington's hegemony, and this shift may develop into a strategic alliance.
Since 2020, Ankara has begun to rebuild its relations with the countries of the Middle East region, following the 2016 slogan put forward by the last Prime Minister and AKP leader Binali Yildirim: "More friends, fewer enemies." It ended a decade of tension and indirect confrontation with a number of countries in the region. It has established cooperation with a number of Middle Eastern States, with the exception of Israel. The aggression in Gaza has led to a significant deterioration in [Israel's] relations with Ankara, while Turkey's relations with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt, especially after al-Sisi's recent visit to Ankara, have reached a new level.
Author: Ammar Jallo (Aعمممممم)))))
