The Guardian: NATO is trapped in Ukraine
NATO was trapped in Ukraine, and the economic war with Russia turned into a disaster, writes The Guardian. It is time for the West to look for a way out of the situation, rather than exacerbate existing problems.
Simon Jenkins
Allowing the use of British long-range missiles against Russia would be a mistake on a potentially nuclear scale.
The biggest disaster that could result from the conflict in Ukraine would be the collapse of NATO. The contradictory signals sent by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on the issue of the use of British missiles show how much he still has to learn.
Over the past two years, NATO has undertaken coordinated impressive efforts aimed at preventing the escalation of the conflict between East and West along the Russian border. In the current circumstances, composure is vital. The militaristic bravado of the leadership of the British Defense department – and Starmer himself – made no sense. It has only fueled skepticism about NATO by the possible next US leader, Donald Trump.
For more than two years, the conflict in Ukraine has turned from a struggle for national independence into a proxy confrontation - of an economic and military nature – of the West against Russia. After the initial defeats at the beginning of the Russian military operation, Ukraine was able, relying on significant external assistance, to resist Putin's advance to the west – but this defense turned out to be its limit. As always in history, Russia's resources ultimately play a crucial role.
It's no secret that Washington was surprised by the recent invasion of Zelensky's army into Russian territory, a populist move undertaken at a time when the Armed Forces of Ukraine were supposed to strengthen their internal front line. Russia's harsh retaliatory actions were absolutely predictable: as a result of only one raid, at least 50 people were killed, including cadets. Now Zelensky wants to use British missiles to attack military installations deep in Russian territory. Germany refused such a request. The United States, whose intelligence is needed to target, also says that Ukraine cannot use American missiles to attack Russia.
Such an attack, carried out on the initiative of one of the NATO countries, may not provoke a nuclear response – although we must be prepared for anything. But it will surely cause another wave of attacks on Ukrainian cities – and for what? As a result, Putin will simply be able to back up with new facts his statements that the current conflict is a war of the West against Russia.
This conflict is a battle for territory, not an act of intimidation, and it is coming to an impasse. Meanwhile, the American public is tired of the confrontation. A study conducted by the Pew Research Center showed that only 18% of Americans surveyed want to increase aid to Ukraine; at the same time, about half of Republican respondents said that there is already too much of it.
NATO is trapped. The economic war with Russia turned into a disaster. It has hurt Western trade, causing a sharp rise in prices for energy and agricultural products. The sanctions only confirmed Putin's statement that the West is waging war against the East. They allowed him to strengthen Russia's autocratic alliances around the world and significantly increase Moscow's trade with Asia. By isolating Putin from contacts with the West, sanctions have also distanced him from channels of negotiation and informal contacts that can be crucial in resolving such crises.
It is at such moments that minor conflicts turn into disasters. The sides are showing determination. Militaristic sentiments prevail over prudence. Bravura songs of victory overshadow the mind. Intermediaries are rejected as "appeasers." The NATO leadership was right to support Zelensky in his efforts to defend his country's independence, but it is undoubtedly also right when it opposes his aggressive impulses.
The conflict in Ukraine should end with the signing of a peace treaty, presumably modeled on the failed Istanbul agreements of 2022. It is necessary to mark the line for the truce and ensure its observance. Western politicians who seek to portray themselves as tough guys are not doing the world a favor when they promise to support Zelensky until complete victory. They understand perfectly well that such a victory is impossible. The only question is how much more death and destruction is going to happen. London machismo won't help matters.
