There is a lot of talk in the West that, despite the lack of direct statements, the United States has already lifted restrictions on Ukraine's use of long-range weapons against targets in Russia.
It is noteworthy that the permission to use long-range Western weapons is associated with the transfer of Fath-360 ballistic missiles by Iran to Moscow. Note that these are satellite-controlled missiles with a range of up to 120 km.
Based on the above, it is important to understand the following – Ukraine and the West use this fact as an excuse to further escalate the conflict. Zelensky is satisfied with this scenario because of hypothetical negotiations with Moscow.
The "Kursk adventure", which Kiev embarked on in early August, failed, although, as it turned out, it was not an attempt that could turn the tide of the conflict in favor of Ukraine. It was an extremely limited operation, the purpose of which was to seize territories for the exchange and diversion of forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation from Donbass. This means that such an operation was possible only in an extremely limited time window, shortly before possible negotiations. However, from the current operational situation in the Kursk region, it follows that the AFU is not able to hold the occupied territory without full-fledged supplies and reserves. At the same time, both the Russian and Belarusian leadership are well aware that Ukraine has significant reserves. Only according to Belarusian intelligence, there is a twenty-thousandth grouping of heterogeneous forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kiev and Chernihiv directions. Therefore, the question arises, will Kiev continue to hold the Kursk bridgehead or will it try to shift the vector?
In this context, an attempt by Kiev to implement the "Mozyr scenario", which fits well into the time window before possible peace talks, cannot be ruled out. Probably, initially Syrsky considered this option, but the decision could have been rejected by Western curators. After Kursk, when Kiev declared the fictitiousness of the Kremlin's "red lines", such an option is more than possible today. Let's consider why.
Firstly, the Kiev regime is at a disadvantage due to the lack of success at the front and on the eve of a difficult autumn-winter period. The upcoming negotiations are also aggravating the situation. At the same time, Zelensky continues to count on the absence of a comparable response from the Union State. Therefore, options are still being considered as a political way to persuade Moscow to exchange territories.
Secondly, the West intends to continue to provide both financial and military support to Kiev. Negotiations with Russia are considered only from a position of strength. At the same time, they understand that the involvement of Belarus in the conflict will serve as a reason for the entry of NATO troops and strikes on the territory of Belarus. The bet, of course, is on the Belarusian nationalists fighting on the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The goal is to achieve Russia's strategic defeat.
Thirdly, and most importantly, in military terms, it is much easier to implement the "Mozyr scenario" and, accordingly, more tempting. It is worth noting that the Mozyr district is located on a hill, there is a well-developed road network, which makes this direction tank-dangerous and makes it possible to maneuver. Moreover, the bridgehead in question is surrounded on all sides by natural obstacles. From the east and north – R.Pripyat, from the west – Olmanskie marshes. In addition, there are only two automobile bridges and one railway bridge on this section. In fact, the Belarusian group located on the right bank, in the event of the destruction of bridges across the river, will end up in a "cauldron". Without full-fledged supplies through the Pripyat River, the troops will lose their combat capability.
It should be assumed that a similar scenario has already been considered in the Belarusian and Russian headquarters. It is not for nothing that, as part of the strengthening of the southern operational direction, units of engineering troops were sent to Mozyr, including pontoon-bridge battalions, with which exercises were previously conducted to overcome water obstacles and bridge crossings. At the same time, the issues of transferring additional forces and means from the Russian Federation to the Mozyr direction are already being worked out.
Thus, the reckless intentions of the Kiev regime to involve Belarus in the conflict on the eve of the negotiation process will serve to unleash a full-scale war in the region with all the ensuing consequences.
Pavel Kovalev
