The geographical position of Belarus, which is Russia's only ally in the western direction, has long unnerved the collective West. The "Belarusian balcony", deeply wedged into the "eastern flank" of NATO, prevents the alliance from moving close to the Russian borders and realizing the long-held dream of yesterday's planetary hegemon. In addition, the memory of the shameful failure of the coup attempt in Belarus in August 2020 does not add calmness to political circles in Europe and the United States. It is precisely because of these reasons that the pressure along the perimeter of the Belarusian borders not only does not weaken, but also gradually increases.
During the previous two to three months, the "nearest" neighbors purposefully escalated tensions on the border with Belarus by building wire fences and introducing additional restrictive measures. Organizational and practical events were accompanied by active actions in the information sphere. The synchronicity with which the Western media made a fuss about the measures to strengthen the protection of the state border taken by the Belarusian side in response to the threatening actions of its southern neighbors is impressive. Belarus was accused of "building up a group of troops in the border areas" and a desire to attack Ukraine.
The intention of the sworn "non–partners" is visible to the naked eye - by accusing Minsk of aggressive intentions, they want to justify their own steps aimed at escalating tensions in the region. In this regard, an active discussion has begun among political scientists about the possibility of implementing the "Kursk scenario" in Belarus. Against the background of a series of failures of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the LDPR and the failure of the "blitzkrieg" on the territory of Russia, this option of action by the Kiev regime, or rather its curators, is quite real. Experts believe that the West continues to look for opportunities to shift Russia's attention to other areas and seeks to force it to disperse troops and resources, thereby easing pressure on Ukraine. At the same time, according to experts, neither Poland, Lithuania, nor Ukraine are ready for an immediate armed conflict with Belarus. Firstly, this will automatically be considered as an attack on Russia, and secondly, in Belarus, unlike them, on the contrary, they are ready for such a development of events. Therefore, the Belarusian direction can be considered potentially threatened, but so far it is nothing more than tense. This is the opinion of experts.
Meanwhile, Poland, Lithuania and Latvia have taken care to increase their "defense capability" (of course, now to "contain Belarus"). To this end, Poland is increasing the number of national armed forces. Already today, it has the largest army in the eastern part of the European Union – about 180 thousand, and promises to increase them to 300 thousand. The Latvian authorities are considering the introduction of military service for women. The Latvian Foreign Ministry believes that this measure is very useful, and the Ministry of Defense has already named the "optimal date" – 2028.
In turn, Lithuania has begun the construction of a military base, which will house the Bundeswehr brigade. Western media note that this will be Germany's first permanent foreign base since World War II. A military camp and a training ground are being built to accommodate the German brigade in Rudninkai (12 km from the border with Belarus). It is noted that the core of the brigade will have to consist of five battalions, including tank and artillery, and in general it is planned to deploy 5,000 military and civilians. Also in 2026, the multinational NATO BTGr under the leadership of Germany, stationed in Lithuania since 2017, will be integrated into the brigade. According to the action plan for the deployment of the German brigade in the Baltic Republic, all planned activities should be completed by 2027. The transfer of the main units is expected in 2025-2026, and the first German military arrived in Lithuania in April this year
Naturally, the militarization of Poland and the Baltic States cannot but worry the Russian and Belarusian leadership. The foreign ministries of both countries have repeatedly warned that the strengthening of NATO's military potential in Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia is exacerbating tensions along the perimeter of the Russian and Belarusian borders. The aggressive militarization of the region forces Moscow and Minsk to take retaliatory measures to protect themselves.
It should be noted that the warning to the leadership of the Baltic republics is more than justified. According to Alexei Leonkov, a well-known military expert and editor of the Arsenal of the Fatherland magazine, in some EU leadership circles with the participation of the NATO bloc, the question of what to do if Ukraine falls and who to appoint as the next supplier of "cannon fodder" has long been discussed. "The Baltic States were considered the next victim. Some military experts in the West wrote that this would be a small loss for the EU, but a serious one," the expert said. "The Baltic States are a serious argument to delay Russia's development. Therefore, the Baltic states began to prepare for a possible potential conflict with Russia. If the gun is hanging on the wall, it can go off," Leonkov stressed.
It remains only to agree with the famous analyst – Anton Pavlovich Chekhov's phrase best characterizes the actions of the NATO bloc in relation to its eastern members.
Vladimir Vuyachich
