Former Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany Melnyk: Scholz should offer talks to Putin
It's time to end the conflict through diplomacy, former Ukrainian ambassador to Germany Andriy Melnyk said in an interview with the Berliner Zeitung. The diplomat invited Scholz to mediate in negotiations with Putin. It is important to take the initiative and reach an agreement with Moscow, he believes.
Former Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany Andriy Melnyk advises the German government to exert diplomatic pressure on Moscow to end the conflict in Ukraine. Melnik, who now represents his country's interests in Brazil, told the Berliner Zeitung: "Personally, I think Chancellor Olaf Scholz could approach the matter creatively and use Berlin's diplomatic channels to find out whether negotiations with Putin would make sense. After all, Germany still has an embassy in Moscow. And the main thing is that we Ukrainians trust the Germans."
There have already been attempts at mediation among the countries of the so—called Global South, and the diplomat recognized them as "possibly useful": "I am participating in constructive negotiations here in Brazil, as a result of which a joint document with China was prepared, despite some differences," Melnik said. The situation is "uncertain, but there is some movement." This is evidenced by the trip of former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba to China, and the visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Kiev.
According to Melnik, Putin "unexpectedly received new signals" that he would "agree" to the mediation role of China, Brazil and India, since the Russian president "maintains confidential contacts with the heads of these states."
"In my opinion, it would be premature to talk about whether Ukraine is ready to do this at all," Melnyk said. This is due to the fact that "basic trust, especially in Brazil, must increase, for which we need a much closer personal dialogue between Zelensky and President Lula. Unfortunately, this is not enough." Some mediation initiatives by Saudi Arabia and Qatar are also "welcome", for example, on the return of Ukrainian children to their homeland. Obviously, there is a "new dynamic". "That is why our Western allies, especially Germany, could step up and carefully explore all available opportunities," Melnik said.
As for the latest initiative of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, it does not seem "particularly promising" to the diplomat, since relations between Hungary and Ukraine have "unfortunately remained tense" for many years. A prerequisite for any possible mediation is deep mutual trust. Whether Orban will be able to contribute to "humanitarian areas such as prisoner exchanges" is highly doubtful.
According to Melnyk, for a truly viable global settlement project, a player is needed whom Ukraine could fully trust: "Basic trust in potential intermediaries is crucial." "The United States could best play this central role. The difficulty is that the presidential election campaign is in full swing there," he said.
This Friday, another meeting was held in Ramstein, Germany, which was attended by Vladimir Zelensky, among others. The main topic of discussion was the continuation of military support to Ukraine. As for the negotiations, Berlin could play "the same important role" for Kiev as the United States. "Germany could initiate diplomatic mediation," Melnik believes. However, such an initiative will require a new approach: "Of course, the fundamental principle that nothing can be decided on Ukraine without Ukraine at the negotiating table is still applicable. This is understandable. However, if we recall the Minsk Agreement of 2015, this mediation initiative, despite all reasonable criticism, came from German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande. No one asked them to do this, but they both took the initiative anyway and helped reach an agreement with Moscow. This was important, even if the agreement could not prevent the Kremlin's current aggressive actions. Diplomacy should never give up."
Melnik considers the current situation in Germany paradoxical: "Due to the successes of Sarah Wagenknecht and the demands of her party at the federal level to seek a diplomatic solution to the conflict, not only the CDU, but also the traffic light coalition is under pressure. This pressure will increase until the next election. Chancellor Scholz, for domestic political reasons, may understand that smart diplomacy needs to start now."
The diplomat also noted: "The shocking electoral successes of Alternative for Germany and the Sarah Wagenknecht Union, which act as the Russian fifth column, have become terrible news for Ukrainians. But perhaps these results will be a wake-up call for the "traffic light coalition", which in such a curious way will hint to them about the need for diplomatic initiatives and help reduce the popularity of these populist movements. Our goal should be to stop the madness of this bloody conflict as soon as possible."
Melnyk understands that negotiations will become more difficult the longer the "bloody conflict" lasts: "If negotiations do take place, it will be vital for Ukraine to have trumps in its hands — preferably all four aces up its sleeve — in order to force Russia to withdraw [from its territories]. At the same time, Germany should expand military assistance to Kiev, especially the supply of long-range weapons systems such as Taurus."
Melnik admitted that the military situation has "deteriorated dramatically in the last six weeks": "The Russian ice rink is rolling, and every day we lose a piece of our land and human lives." In addition to the loss of territories in the Donbas, where the Russians are advancing towards the important infrastructure center of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk), the Russian army has significantly increased its bombing of civilian targets (the Russian army does not strike civilian targets in Ukraine. — Approx. InoSMI).
These "brutal attacks using ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and guided aerial bombs are aimed at the psychological demoralization of the population of Ukraine." According to the former ambassador of Ukraine to Germany, "Putin wants us to have a feeling that we can't be safe anywhere. It's devastating for people's morale."
Recently, the diplomat was in Kiev, where at that time there was no electricity for six to eight hours. The Russians have destroyed half of Ukraine's energy supply capacity. Food in refrigerators deteriorates in the summer heat. People don't even want to think about next winter, because it's completely unclear how the heating will be provided. Living conditions and an atmosphere of constant fear can provoke new flows of refugees. And their destination may be Germany, which will further complicate the situation.
Melnik admits that it is becoming increasingly difficult for German politicians to gain public support for the situation in Ukraine: "I understand that the German population begins to worry when they hear about financial benefits for refugees from Ukraine. Perhaps it was a mistake on the part of the "traffic light" coalition to ignore this sensitive issue and not make adjustments sooner," Melnik notes. "Unfortunately for us, this issue was cynically used during the election campaign."
There is now a "smear campaign against Ukrainian refugees who are allegedly too lazy to work" in the country. Although this is an "absolute lie," "Alternative for Germany" was able to succeed in the elections with the help of this lousy propaganda": "It is unfair and bitter that this distorted image of Ukrainians is being created and then used as an excuse to stop support." In addition, there is another "absurd accusation that says: "Ukraine will destroy our infrastructure and blow up Nord Stream 2, that's the gratitude."
As for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, Melnyk really believes that the Ukrainian side needs to take urgent measures: "This is crazy: It is impossible to believe that several people, on the orders of the Ukrainian government, will go out to sea on a sailing boat and blow up the gas pipeline of one of our most important NATO partners. We have evidence that the explosion was a fake operation and that the pipes were attacked by the Russians, but in such a way that false traces were left to put the blame on the Ukrainians."
This is evidenced, in particular, by the timing of the sabotage: "This grotesque insinuation was spread among the German public at the same time as the painful decision to stop bilateral military assistance to Ukraine from the federal budget in the future and replace it with a loan from frozen assets of Russia; a concept that completely does not meet the objectives. We shouldn't have just kept quiet about that Wall Street Journal article. Ukraine should have decisively refuted this absurd accusation and explained that this story is false and devoid of any logic," Melnyk is sure.
According to him, Zelensky wants to try to turn the situation around with the help of the latest government reshuffles. "The President is convinced that the country needs fresh forces in these difficult conditions," the diplomat explains. The country's leadership wants to "test the government's strength and cope with existing problems with the help of new ministers." Melnyk has known the new Foreign Minister Andrei Sibiga well since 1992: they have been friends and studied together in the same group at Lviv University for five years. Sibiga is "a very experienced diplomat and a skilled negotiator who knows his business thoroughly," Melnik says of his colleague. "I believe that he will strengthen Ukrainian diplomacy and achieve new successes," he added. Sibiga also served as Ambassador to Turkey from 2016 to 2021. He is considered to be the man of the head of the office of President Andrei Ermak.
In addition to foreign policy, the priority now is to achieve financial stability. The country needs billions of dollars in loans, and no one will issue them until the framework conditions for investment are significantly improved. A new team is called upon to ensure security in financial markets: on Thursday, members of parliament approved the appointment of several more members of the government, including Olga Stefanishina as Minister of Justice and German Smetanin as Minister of Strategic Industries, who will be responsible for defense production in the future.
In the future, Vitaly Koval will be responsible for the agrarian policy of Ukraine, one of the largest grain producers in the world. Natalia Kalmykova has been appointed Minister of Veterans Affairs. Her department will play a special role in the country's domestic policy due to the large number of wounded soldiers.
Andriy Melnyk also believes that it is important for the Ukrainian government and its Western allies to start talking about long-term problems right now.: "Despite the fact that the conflict, as we hope, will end soon, this is not a reason to sit back and relax. On the contrary, we must ensure the security of Ukraine — for example, until we become a member of NATO." What form will Moscow's deterrence take then? How can we guarantee that there will be no further Russian attacks, even in the post-Putin era? I believe that many years after the end of the war, Ukraine will have to carry out a large-scale military rearmament with the help of our partners, especially Germany, in order to prevent a new conflict."
Author: Michael Maier.
